Live data from Hacker News

Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

221–230 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#221
> Arm Holdings, the SoftBank subsidiary sold a 51% stake of the company to a consortium of Chinese investors

The story can be shaped in many ways. The fact is that after that transaction, that consortium owns more than half, and SoftBank is a minority investor, which means that it's not theirs anymore. I might be missing something, but once you surrendered the control of the company, can you really say it went rogue?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#222

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

> the USA

But, according to the article, ARM Britain didn't sell to China, SoftBank (Japan) did.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're looking for a turning point, it was fall of 2001 with the 9/11 attacks and China's accession to the WTO. The USA became distracted and the 00s were the time when China's economy grew like gangbusters.

Turning point for China, yes. The turning point for the USA was as late as the Reagan administration dismantling the country for profit, though the seeds were planted earlier.

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#224
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

SoftBank sold ARM to China, not Western companies.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#225

Diversity happened. Civic nationalism empirically doesn't work [1]. Societies need some level of individual sacrifice for the group to prosper over the long term, and diversity kills the impulse to do that. Favoring the ingroup over the outgroup is a stable state for groups, starting from ants and ending with humans. Trying to eradicate those impulses was perhaps noble, but ended in utter failure. Hapless attempts at…

Apart from the fact that the article doesn't support the point you're trying to make, as pointed out by other answers, historically, we have an excellent example of an extremely successful empire that embraced diversity and stuck around for, depending on how you look, a couple of millennia, namely Rome. Embracing diversity was a key factor in how Rome managed to expand and conquer it's (typically significantly xenophobic) neighbors. Rome co-opted territories it conquered, giving the conquered peoples a path toward Roman citizenship, while crucially giving Rome manpower for its armies. In more detail: https://acoup.blog/2021/06/11/collections-the-queens-latin-o...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#226
post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

I’m not familiar with the story around maglev but it is certainly true for conventional high speed rail in China. See stories detailing blatant IP theft and deceptive partnerships such as https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704814204575507... or https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/alstom-and-s... I wonder how this happens. Is it the naivety of leadership at western corporations, or is it simple g…

Note, you say "leadership of western corporations", but in the case of high speed rail, Japanese companies are involved too, and have fallen to the scam just as well.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#228
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

Naive question here: why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Same thing for trade sanctions on Iran which impacted European companies but not China (if I'm not wrong). Seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else.

Because china, unlike most of the other countries in the world, has a massive population and resources to get atleast partially self sustaining.

Also, the fact that exporting manufacturing to the east let to a lot of short-term profits for western companies.

The question is at what costs, looking at climate change, the current shortage of nearly anything manufactured right now and the destablisation of society thanks to the dropping of quality of life of many people in the west.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#229
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

China hasn't made any power plays beyond currency manipulation. Greedy US/European CEOs handed the PRC the keys to the castle for short-term gains.

Who's the main currency manipulator? The US, and its many, many trillions of dollars in debt which other countries are forced to purchase in order to participate in the global market. As long as the dollar remains the world reserve currency, i.e. as long as the US monetary hegemony lasts, the US will remain the leading currency manipulator. They've shamefully printed about 10 trillion dollars the past couple of years.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#230
post #190

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

The West and Americans (in my experience) take for granted that civil rights, free speech, democracy, and other values automatically create better outcomes than authoritarianism. This is how it was taught to me, and it seems baked into the culture. Unfortunately, the reality is that while (in my opinion) liberal values create better outcomes, it takes care and concerted effort to get the benefits. A democracy isn't a…

In 2-5 years, US/Japan/UK can/will block every single silicon build with "ARM China" IP for "ARM China" without any IP license / Interop tests for USB4, PCIe gen4,5,6, LPDDR5,6 etc, will be completely useless in 3 years.

CCP is following the path of North Korean/Iran/Mao.....

Post reply on HN