Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#271

Post by AndrewBissell » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 4:43 PM UTC

SamBam wrote: post #236

AndrewBissell wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how that's really relevant when over 99% of people in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts do not die from Covid.

32,000 people in the study, of which 16,000 had previously had Covid. They found a total of 238 re-infections. Assuming 1% mortality from Covid, that group of 16,000 would have previously been 16,162, before being culled down to the study size by deaths. You don't think an additional 162 would make a difference to the results? (Obviously it doesn't make a difference if you read this study as " given someone survived…

> if you read this study as "given someone survived Covid, what are the odds..."

How else are we supposed to read it? I just don't understand what point is being made with "survivorship bias" here. It's not like individuals who have recovered from Covid have gone through some hyperselective winnowing process leaving only those with superheroic immune systems or something.

Obviously the study does not support the conclusion "it's safer to catch Covid than get vaccinated." However, for the millions of people who have had a confirmed infection and recovered, it is absolutely relevant to their risk calculus around whether to take the vaccine, and given that they are survivors, there is no "bias" to speak of.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#272

Post by jaywalk » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #175

jaywalk wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's no easier than lying about vaccination status. Antibody tests are widely available, yet none of the pro-vaxers are willing to accept them as evidence of immunity. Why do you think that is?

As I understand it, Israel does count previous infection similar to vaccinated status. Not an argument, just a data point.

I wasn't aware of that, but that's good to know. It's certainly not counted anywhere in America that I'm aware of.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#273

Post by tootie » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 4:59 PM UTC

Scoundreller wrote: post #250

tootie wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RTFA > The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and then received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated.

Which is still a good argument against double-vaccinating them, at least when vaccines were hard to come by (which is still the case in most of the world). At least that’s how France does it, and that strategy might come in handy again as they plan to give boosters with influenza vaccines to everyone over 65.

Single dose has been the recommendation for a while in the US.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#274

Post by actually_a_dog » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:06 PM UTC

bavell wrote: post #194

fncypants wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, no. This is why there are anti-vaxxers to begin with. Communication is key. Scientists and health professionals fail at it. Listing cold facts does not effectively communicate to the broad public, because they receive the message not by learning the new facts to change their word view, but by trying to fit it in their world view. Messaging is critical in public communication.

Sorry, no. Hiding facts from responsible adults is a great way to breed resistance to any subject being discussed. Stop infantilizing your neighbors.

You seem to be assuming that anti-vaxxers are responsible adults.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#275

Post by AndrewBissell » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:07 PM UTC

macksd wrote: post #55

AndrewBissell wrote: post #3

There's really nothing surprising about this conclusion. Before Covid came along and the focus inexplicably shifted to antibodies-only, it was well understood that infection with a pathogen was always likely to result in better immunity than vaccination.

Except it was widely reported that natural immunity lasted 3 to 6 months and that the vaccines would last 2 years (at least Moderna), and the nuances there I think would be lost on a lay person. I even had an immunologist explain to me in detail why the immunity from the vaccine would be way stronger than acquired immunity. It doesn't really build confidence in science if, while we're finding new things, everyone pre…

I think we're in agreement here -- I did not mean to imply that a lay person following the claims bandied about in the mass media this year would have been under this impression. In fact, six months ago a claim like this would have been likely to be labeled misinformation on Twitter. I'm just saying that for the Covid vaccines to have provided better immunity than recovery from infection would have been very divergent from what is observed for the vast majority of other pathogens.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#276

Post by koheripbal » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:09 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #155

tzs wrote: post #106

Long term it seems pretty straightforward. It is almost certain COVID will become endemic, and no known form of immunity whether from vaccination or prior infection confers sufficient permanent immunity against infection to stop re-infection but prior immunity (from vaccine or prior infection) does greatly reduce the chances that your infection will give you serious illness. You assumption therefore should be that ov…

Exactly. The only reason that the other four endemic human coronaviruses don't kill many people today is that most of us get infected as children and build up natural immunity which protects us later. But they can still be deadly to people with weak immune systems. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102597/ Obviously most people weren't infected with SARS-CoV-2 as children so the smart move is to get vacci…

The other influence is the evolution of the virus itself. A longer lasting less-than-lethal infection is, in the long term, is selected for by evolutionary pressure.

In the short term though the biggest selection pressure on the virus is vaccine evasion.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#277

Post by tootie » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:13 PM UTC

peterbonney wrote: post #262

tootie wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fully vaccinated as is my whole family but you're the one showing bias here. The data is the data. Obviously the data set is only recovered patients. That has no bearing on the analysis. It's not a recommendation to go get infected or anything ridiculous like that. It's not a recommendation of anything. It's just data.

It’s math for the sake of math with no actual scientific value. Here, let me help: “Car crash survivors show greater seat belt compliance than people who watch a seat belt PSA.” Useless analysis.

That's the wrong analogy. Seat belts only work while you're wearing them. They don't prevent crashes. Imagine if the study found the opposite conclusion. That vaccines produced a stronger immune response than a live infection. We'd have a whole different take if that were the result so it's extremely valuable to have an answer.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#278

Post by actually_a_dog » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:22 PM UTC

polote wrote: post #119

CyanLite2 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some folks are looking for any excuse to not get the vaccine.

And so what ? We should lie so that they take it ?

You appear to believe it would be immoral to lie to people to get them to take the vaccine. I don't believe anti-vaxxers want to die from COVID. Is it not also immoral to allow people who don't wish to die to die needlessly? It would seem to be a "lesser of two evils" sort of situation, and, in that case, the harm of lying is probably less than the harm of allowing people to die senselessly.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#279

Post by a0-prw » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:22 PM UTC

"The study demonstrates the power of the human immune system, but infectious disease experts emphasized that this vaccine and others for COVID-19 nonetheless remain highly protective against severe disease and death."

I'll go with my immune system, thanks. Just like I'll keep eating natural food instead of processed. This whole pandemic thing is the biggest mass hysteria ever. Old, sick people are dying! Omg, PANIC!

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#280

Post by angelzen » Fri, Aug 27, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

cogman10 wrote: post #177

aww_dang wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure the specific rationalizations are as relevant as the moral questions. Do individuals have a right to their own body? Does a collective or a technocrat have a right to coerce an individual into a medical procedure? If we answer "yes" to the second question, only then does it become relevant because we must next ask: Is there a limit to what a collective or technocrat can medically impose upon an individua…

> Do individuals have a right to their own body? Insofar as their rights don't impact the rights of others. Individuals have a right to drink alcohol. They do not have a right to then drive a car. Vaccination by mandate is an extension of that reasoning. You have a right not to get vaccinated, but you don't have a right to participate in the public. Because restricting public interaction is neigh impossible (Even wit…

Wild.

'you don't have a right to participate in the public'.

Universal Declaration of Human Rights

Article 3. Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.

Article 9. No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.

Article 13.1. Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state.

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-huma...

'quarantine people with disease'.

This is an elementary precaution that everyone, vaccinated or not, should voluntarily take at symptom onset. Not only for covid, but for flu as well. However, preemptively restricting the rights of healthy people, just because they may eventually catch a disease, is unheard of.