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TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#521

I'm in charge of sourcing components for multiple companies right now. I believe they could double (100%) prices and companies would pay it. There's chips that I'm sourcing from obscure places in China just to get the part and paying whatever price they ask. Designers are getting overwhelmed because they're having to redesign boards for components that are available, only to realize by the time they finish the change…

It's a nightmare. A broker in HK recently quoted me $71/ea for an industrial temp rated 10/100 Ethernet PHY (KSZ8081MNXIA) ... That is a roughly 50x markup. We're making a design change instead. I am now buying qty 500-1000 of any new part that is getting designed in, before the design is even started.

Our Analog Devices sales rep told me to expect another 12-18 months of everything being completely fucked. That was based on a conversation he recently had with TSMC. It's going to be super fun.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question because I’m unfamiliar with the market. Why aren’t competitors undercutting these big players? 40% is ridiculous

There are three companies (TSMC, Samsung and Intel) that compete at the top end of chip fabrication in the whole world. One of them (Intel) didn't make chips for anyone but themselves until about 4 months ago. Preparing a semiconductor for a given companies fab process takes time. You cant just call them up and ask for however many units of your design. Its a months to year long process of your engineers working with…

> One of them (Intel) didn't make chips for anyone but themselves until about 4 months ago.

actually iirc they've tried to get into the custom foundry business a couple times now (see: "Intel Custom Foundry" that got discontinued a couple years ago) but they never really attracted any major customers.

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/intel/7912-...

Part of this was due to the fact that Intel's design rules (the "rules" that govern chip design: how small wires and transistor features can be and so on) are completely different from every other foundry, so while porting from TSMC to Samsung or something like that certainly isn't easy, it's at least straightforward, whereas Intel's stack is basically totally different from everyone else's. One of the advantages Intel has is that the chip design and the process are tightly intertwined, if there is a problem with the chip design the designers can go down the hall and talk to the process people and see if they can come up with a solution at the process level. This obviously also became their downfall when 10nm slipped, and likely also it severely reduced their ability to sell their foundry services to other customers.

According to that article they were apparently also rather secretive about their process (seeing it as part of their "special sauce" I guess) and I've heard many customers doubted Intel's commitment to the program as well as their neutrality. And I think the final piece of the puzzle was probably price - I'm guessing Intel was asking a royal sum compared to GF or Samsung or TSMC. After all... they're intel, and their process is the best!

> One of the funniest stories I heard was about the first copy of the Intel 14nm design rules Atera got from Intel. They were heavily redacted, which is something I had never seen in the foundry business. After many delays Intel put their own implementation team on the first 14nm Altera tapeout and the result was a very competitive FPGA chip. If not for the continued delays, Xilinx would have been in serious trouble as the Intel 14nm FPGA, based on my experience with customers, beats the Xilinx 16nm in both density and performance.

They are now trying to get back into the custom foundry business of course. Different management, and a very different business situation for Intel - if they can get other customers to help finance their node development that's a big win for them at this point.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#523
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bosch recently opened their own chip fab in Dresden, primary focus for now is on automotive chips and those required for their in-house tools and appliances: https://www.bosch.com/stories/bosch-chip-factory-dresden/

This makes a lot of sense as Bosch make so many automotive parts. In Europe, it doesn't matter whether you buy a BMW, a Peugeot or a Volvo, under the hood they are all using Bosch electronics to control the engine and many other parts of the car.

Almost in the entire world. Majority of all injection systems is made by Bosch. Including lambda sensors, mass airflow and fuel injection systems.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Manufacturing is still going. In fact, we manufacture more than ever. Folks conflate manufacturing with manufacturing _jobs_. Our manufacturing is more efficient then ever which is why you constantly hear this false refrain that US manufacturing is down or gone.

It seems to me that if you can make a product of a given quality very cheaply, that probably indicates that you're very good at making it. The fact that I can't get competitive production quotes in the USA for most products, like electric motors, injection molded plastic parts, printed circuit boards, stamped metal parts, castings, etc, suggests that the US is also not particularly efficient at making those parts. Th…

Isn't the time right now?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of cryptocurrency, there is a clear better alternative that is Proof of Stake. It's caused by techological, economical and educational inertia. Cryptocurrency is driven by community consensus, and that's what we're doing here... discussing an outdated consensus (PoW supremacy) in the hope of changing it.

Proof of stake changes the game and raises the bar for entry. It essentially creates a "rich get richer" scenario where the only way to increase the amount of coin you have is to either already have enough to participate in proof of stake, or to buy the coin from someone else. In that light, I wouldn't necessarily say that proof of stake is clearly better than proof of work. As an example, the proposed proof of stake…

It seems there will be pool staking in ETH, although I agree ideally staking threshold should be low.

Consider the case with Proof of Work (ASIC-based): you need to purchase specialized hardware for several $k (apparently at least $2k), spend more on specialized infrastructure (power supply, cooling, servers) and live somewhere with almost free energy. Otherwise it's just not economical to mine. This leaves out the vast majority of people as well, and incentivizes (1) massive economies of scale of farms, (2) shady or corrupt deals for free energy, through local government or simply illegal connections to the network.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#526
post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People do complain about excessive comforts too. It's one of the main complains those less well off make about those more well off. That said, there's a couple of differences between hot tubs and AC, and crypto mining: - Creature comforts don't consume the energy equivalent of a small developed country. - In what they do consume, most of the use is around basic human needs; excessive use happens rarely. - Most import…

To add, this isn’t really “surplus” energy that’s being consumed. There are fossil burning power plants running only to produce PoW, and unless mining operations shut down to allow a generator to operate at minimum load, they are forcing shared generators to run and dams to drain.

you know that generator fuel consumption and dam water consumption is dependent on the load on the generator, right?

it's not like a generator burns 2gal/hr no matter the load. This is easily observable even (perhaps especially) on home generators - if you run it idle it might run for 12 hours and if you load it to maximum capacity it might be out of fuel in 2 hours. look at a product page for a generator and will probably be specified at a particular load level (50% load for example).

also if you keep pushing water through a dam at maximum rate even when the dam is under a light load, you'll overspeed the generator and blow it up. You have to have control gates to control the water flow.

basically, "how difficult" it is to spin the generator is determined by the electrical load (coupled through the magnetic field of the motor) and obviously you need more physical power to spin against a stronger field, which translates into more power/fuel.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#527
post #499
post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bootstrapping the second time is much easier

Venor Vinge's The Children of the Sky is hard sci-fi touches on this issue of how to bootstrap a civilization to the point where the technology necessary to restore a highly advanced spaceship becomes available. Humanity will need this skill if we are ever able to venture out of our solar system.

Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Stone

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"service economy" was always a meme being sold to the gullible masses, manufacturing capacity is the only thing that matters for an economy. Manufacturing has always printed the money It amazes me how the US allowed itself to be nearly deindustrialized after manufacturing effectively won them WWII and global dominance. Now the US can't even make ventilators or face masks

US Manufacturing is still going. In fact, we manufacture more than ever. Folks conflate manufacturing with manufacturing _jobs_. Our manufacturing is more efficient then ever which is why you constantly hear this false refrain that US manufacturing is down or gone.

Oh?

https://qz.com/1269172/the-epic-mistake-about-manufacturing-...

tl;dr if you focus on Intel's monopoly money-printer years, multiply it by a hedonic adjustment due to Moore's law, and mix it in with the rest of manufacturing it's enough to hide de-industrialization in your statistics.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#529
post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, https://cbeci.org/ says Bitcoin uses 0.01176 TW, not 1TW. You can take a deep breath of relief! The real energy use of Bitcoin is only 1.2% of what you thought it was! So, if you thought Bitcoin energy usage was a pretty bad problem but not world-endingly dire, you should now think it's insignificant. If that isn't what you think, it probably means that your opinions are not based on careful cost-benefit analysis…

Energy consumption is measured in terawatt hours, not TW, and page you linked to says annualised consumption is 90TWh , which is on par with the netherlands annual consumption. This is hardly partisanship, its an enormous amout of power.

> Energy consumption is measured in terawatt hours, not TW, and page you linked to says annualised consumption is 90TWh , which is on par with the netherlands annual consumption. This is hardly partisanship, its an enormous amout of power.

You can measure energy consumption over a given time period in terawatt hours; for example, consuming a terawatt for one hour is consuming one terawatt hour, while consuming a terawatt for two hours, or consuming two terawatts for one hour, is consuming two terawatt hours. The standard term for "energy consumption over a given time period" is "power", and the standard SI unit for power is the watt. A terawatt hour per year is precisely and identically some number of watts; I calculate it as 114,079,550 watts, or more conveniently 114.1 megawatts, because an hour is about 0.00014407955 years.

If you want to measure power consumption in ad-hoc units of 114.1 megawatts or poundal-fathoms per Planck time, I can't stop you, and you can even do correct calculations with them, but, myself, I prefer to use SI units, because they greatly facilitate mental arithmetic and comparisons.

(This has been a brief introduction to the basics of the Systeme Internationale of units.)

If you scroll up about 512 pixels from where you were looking on that page, which currently says annualized consumption is probably about 93.01 TWh/year, you'll see that they also provide the same number in a different form, as 11.76 GW. (This is a slight arithmetic error; 11.76 GW actually adds up to 93.01 TWh every 330 days. Perhaps the 11.76 GW is a 7-day moving average and the 93.01 TWh/year is instantaneous power consumption, or vice versa.)

Whether 11.76 GW is "an enormous amount of power" or not depends on what you're comparing it to. Total world marketed energy consumption is about 18-20 TW, so compared to world marketed energy consumption, it's not an enormous amount of power. (A terawatt is 1000 gigawatts.) Terrestrial insolation is about 130 petawatts (a petawatt is 1000 TW); about 0.3% of that falls on arable land, so agriculture uses about 350 TW of power, almost 20 times world marketed energy consumption.

Unsurprisingly, you're also mistaken about the Netherlands' power consumption, perhaps because you don't know about non-electrical forms of energy such as kinetic energy, chemical energy, and (very ironically in this context) solar energy; even their electrical energy consumption alone is 119 TWh/year, which is 13.6 GW, but most of their energy consumption is not electrical; their total energy consumption is more than 100 GW.

So, Bitcoin provides a secure digital currency to 7.8 billion people for, probably, significantly less energy than the Netherlands uses to provide electricity to 0.018 billion people. (A million is 0.001 billion.)

Is it partisanship to call that "an enormous amount of power"? Maybe, maybe not, it's a valid subjective perspective. But it's clearly partisanship to not care whether it's 12 GW or 1000 GW.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#530
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know a single person who uses bitcoins or a single store that accepts them... and it's very risky for companies due to it's extreme volatility (the price may increase/decrease by hundreds percent within days or weeks)

That's anecdotal. I know many people that use bitcoin every day. Bitcoin is much more useful (currently) to people that don't have access to traditional banking systems that many people take for granted.

> That's anecdotal. I know many people that use bitcoin every day.

Which country?

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