TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#331

Post by gogopuppygogo » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

cletus wrote: post #55

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

I agree with this but it's even worse than that. Estimates on Bitcoin energy usage put it at over 1TW now. I believe it was comparable to the energy consumption of Argentina. Advocates will defend this by saying most energy usage is renewable. This conjures the image of someone with a bunch of solar panels but the reality is that it's primarily hydro power because that's the cheapest. Thing is, in regions with cheap…

These “assets” are usually just participation trophies in decentralized Ponzi schemes. Bitcoin is propped up by the ongoing tether scandal that is now larger than Bernie Madoff ever was.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#332

Post by Salgat » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

cletus wrote: post #55

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

I agree with this but it's even worse than that. Estimates on Bitcoin energy usage put it at over 1TW now. I believe it was comparable to the energy consumption of Argentina. Advocates will defend this by saying most energy usage is renewable. This conjures the image of someone with a bunch of solar panels but the reality is that it's primarily hydro power because that's the cheapest. Thing is, in regions with cheap…

People need to remember that using up the available renewable energy on crypto just means there's less available for other consumers to use. The idea is to reduce electrical demand which makes it easier to shift towards 100% renewable. Adding all that electrical demand just keeps around non-renewable energy longer since few countries are able to go 100% renewable on their current demand.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#333

Post by rfd4sgmk8u » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

bodyfour wrote: post #330

rfd4sgmk8u wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry you don't find it useful. I do find it useful, in fact millions more like me do. Usefulness is a subjective measurement. If you think we are crazy, that's OK. Bitcoin is opt-in. You can choose to ignore it, you can think its fucking useless, but in my opinion, you are wrong.

That's great news... so how do I opt-out of the CO₂ that BTC is generating?

How do I opt-out of the CO₂ exhaled by the 7 billion other humans on the planet, or the CO₂ from Facebook or TikTok data centers (as IMHO both are very harmful for the planet)?

Same way?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#334

Post by cwkoss » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #298

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

> This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has existed for more than a decade. This is yet another way we're all forced to pay the price for COVID-19. When everybody started working from home, companies whose employees had desktops had to buy them all laptops. People with old home computers bought newer ones once they started using them 14 hours a day instead of two. Deman…

Cryptomining incentivizes green energy investment

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#335

Post by Taek » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

officialchicken wrote: post #47

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

I love how crypto has become easy-to-blame, when in fact datacenter after datacenter is being stuffed to the brim with chips for ML workloads. It's important to recognize when consumers are being squeezed by multiple market forces.

It's mostly not ML either. There were production hiccups do to covid, increased consumer demand for chips due to covid, increased demand of mobile chips because the mobile industry is still massively growing, among other issues.

Crypto and ML are each rather small aspects of the issue at hand.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#336

Post by Taek » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #60

officialchicken wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how crypto has become easy-to-blame, when in fact datacenter after datacenter is being stuffed to the brim with chips for ML workloads. It's important to recognize when consumers are being squeezed by multiple market forces.

The issue is that crypto mining is the only system designed to have negative marginal utility for each GPU consumed. It literally pays people to take energy and GPUs away from the open market for zero incremental gain to the network. The difference is that each additional iPhone or ML accelerator or cloud server CPU provides incrementally more utility. More ML accelerators means more ML processing. Proof-of-work mini…

The amount of value extracted by the person mining reduces as more compute power starts mining, but that's actually a negative feedback loop that will reduce the total spending on chips for crypto mining.

The amount of security provided to the network is constant in the number of GPUs. As you add more GPUs, the network gets harder to attack. Does the network need as much security as it's paying for? Nobody is really sure, it's an open debate in the crypto industry.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#337

Post by vmception » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:30 PM UTC

hackingforfun wrote: post #321

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, but those exact same places could power servers instead of miners, taking a load off of wherever the servers are currently hosted.

It's cheaper for them to just flare the gas. The only thing that has made economic sense, as an alternative to flaring it, is to mine Bitcoin. I understand the energy criticism, but flare gas is an example where Bitcoin mining actually makes something less polluting.

Thanks for chiming in! Nice to see a new account understanding this issue and joining the fray.

It has been fascinating to me to watch the disbelief evolve. One aspect of this is that negative reporting has been basically allowed and encouraged by miners because they didn't want competition on their cheaper renewable/captured energy sources.

So, for years, many investment groups would discourage their renewable or captured energy activity to be citable source of what is happening with bitcoin mining, because they didn't want others with deeper connections to make partnerships with sites faster.

Its really funny, to me, watching people have to redo their understanding but trying to make that understanding conform to the negative energy impact idea that they were intentionally led on with.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#338

Post by supertrope » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:30 PM UTC

rfd4sgmk8u wrote: post #301

mrRandomGuy wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Bitcoin gang doesn't like it when people point out that the entire thing is fucking useless.

I'm sorry you don't find it useful. I do find it useful, in fact millions more like me do. Usefulness is a subjective measurement. If you think we are crazy, that's OK. Bitcoin is opt-in. You can choose to ignore it, you can think its fucking useless, but in my opinion, you are wrong.

Bitcoin is a force multiplier for ransomware.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#339

Post by imtringued » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

reportingsjr wrote: post #162

londons_explore wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Building a new factory is a 10+ year effort for a competitor. (They have to do the R&D to get on-par with performance, and physically build the factory). The shortage won't last that long. But in the meantime, anyone who owns a suitable factory can pretty much set the prices as high as they like. I'm really surprised the price hike is only 20%, rather than 10% per month for the next 3 years.

I imagine if things get too out of hand that governments will step in to limit prices. Maybe.

That just disrupts the profit incentive of competitors.

The entity that manufactures the product is compensated for it, meaning the money isn't being siphoned off by a random third party. Price controls grant a wind fall to consumers who are in no position to build another semiconductor plant. It's basically a wealth transfer away from the semiconductor industry into the consuming industries. If you want semiconductor prices to drop then either grant a subsidy or let the government build a plant that produces way more than the market really needs.

A single shortage plus price increase might not be able to pay for a whole plant, but any plans to expand capacity will be shifted forward rather than be delayed. If the profit motive exists the construction of the new plant will happen one year sooner and it will be bigger in anticipation of future shortages.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#340

Post by janekm » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

noelherrick wrote: post #283

Gosh I wish Apple with their loads of cash and drive to have the highest performing chip would get big ole fabs on US and EU shores. The fact that a disputed country owns the best fabs is downright scary for the future of the world (add in that the disputing country is the next superpower).

Apple know that just setting up fabs without all the infrastructure to package, test, and then manufacture products with the chips doesn't really solve anything. The last time Apple tried to do any manufacturing in the US the project failed because they couldn't find anyone to manufacture the screws: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/technology/iphones-apple-...