TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#231

Post by grkvlt » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:32 PM UTC

cletus wrote: post #55

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

I agree with this but it's even worse than that. Estimates on Bitcoin energy usage put it at over 1TW now. I believe it was comparable to the energy consumption of Argentina. Advocates will defend this by saying most energy usage is renewable. This conjures the image of someone with a bunch of solar panels but the reality is that it's primarily hydro power because that's the cheapest. Thing is, in regions with cheap…

> Some uses of this are entirely legitimate (eg escaping capital controls in certain currencies). Some are not (ie all the illegal usages).

but wouldn't evading capital controls for a countries currency be illegal, too?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#232

Post by zsmi » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:33 PM UTC

reportingsjr wrote: post #162

londons_explore wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Building a new factory is a 10+ year effort for a competitor. (They have to do the R&D to get on-par with performance, and physically build the factory). The shortage won't last that long. But in the meantime, anyone who owns a suitable factory can pretty much set the prices as high as they like. I'm really surprised the price hike is only 20%, rather than 10% per month for the next 3 years.

I imagine if things get too out of hand that governments will step in to limit prices. Maybe.

Probably the limiting factor is one needs to make sure the customers of chips stay viable. I mean, one hopes the shortage will eventually be over and foundries will want to make sure they didn't gut their own market.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#233

Post by makotech222 » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:33 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

[dead]

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#234

Post by colinmhayes » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:37 PM UTC

drcode wrote: post #154

zigradett wrote: post #110

Bitfinex (which has been outlawed in the USA) keeps printing Tether to prop up the price of Bitcoin, graphics cards are snatched up as soon as they are manufactured, and they're using an Argentina-sized amount of power to keep the whole thing going. Yes, it works, but no one on earth will ever use these Bitcoins to buy two pizzas ever again. What's the end-game, at this point? As many bagholders as possible?

The end game is to transition to Proof of Stake, which doesn't have these problems and has other security advantages.

Bitcoin will never move to PoS. The community is far to fractured, without a leader they'll never agree.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#235

Post by p_j_w » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:37 PM UTC

neb_b wrote: post #167

nivenkos wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but 99% of people will sell, and the price will crash.

The people that need it won't sell. Bitcoin is most useful in countries already living under authoritarian rule with no access to traditional banking.

That is a point in favor of this particular policy idea, though, isn't it?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#236

Post by colinmhayes » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:38 PM UTC

vardump wrote: post #33

sylens wrote: post #7

Starting to get the feeling that the current prices for PC components are here to say.

This might be the start of the end of high-end PC gaming, unless prices get back to a more reasonable level. Consoles (and phones) are very competitive and cost significantly less. Or perhaps it just causes the games to have lower performance requirements. Is integrated graphics the future of PC gaming?

> Consoles are very competitive and cost significantly less.

If you can get one

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#237

Post by simonh » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:38 PM UTC

another_story wrote: post #102

simonh wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPUs are a marginal factor in this. The main factors are several impacts from Covid-19, US trade restrictions on SMIC chip exports from China (a big supplier of low and mid-range chips which this is actually all about), and the Taiwan drought. The Covid-19 impact itself is multi-pronged. Many chip plants closed or reduced output due to the lockdowns, but also the silicon used in chip production is the same material u…

Taiwan drought has been over for awhile now.

Nevertheless any impact on production would set them behind their production targets which would need to be caught up. Even if it didn't impact production, it would certainly have impacted costs, hence contributing to the price hike.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#238

Post by yholio » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:38 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #131

dkersten wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> more ML processing I would argue that most ML processing by most "big data" companies also has marginal negative output for each additional GPU. Certainly anything to do with social media or adtech and a lot of analytics in general is a net negative for the world, while consuming electricity and processing hardware.

If you are this reductionist you can argue all electricity consumption is net negative.

They are not being reductionist. Each additional hashing unit cancels out at the next difficulty adjustment, having a net effect of zero on the overall working of the network.

Yes, the hash rate of the network increases, thus the difficulty for an attacker to perform a double spend. But, arguably, that's an already insane level of resources, many orders of magnitude higher than what a bitcoin-like payment system would reasonably require.

So even if you consider the network socially useful, pouring thousands of times more hashing power that the network actually requires to perform its task securely is still a waste of resources.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#239

Post by colinmhayes » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:39 PM UTC

neb_b wrote: post #226

f32jhnjk33jj wrote: post #174

Thank you cryptominers for everything you did for the mankind, especially huge GPU prices and insane air pollution caused by your mining farms.

Also, thank you for providing fast and cheap remittance payments to poorer countries.

> fast and cheap

???

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#240

Post by neb_b » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 3:39 PM UTC

colinmhayes wrote: post #229

neb_b wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people that need it won't sell. Bitcoin is most useful in countries already living under authoritarian rule with no access to traditional banking.

Almost none of bitcoins usage is by the people that need it.

Do you have a source for that?