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TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

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Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#131

Post by thehappypm »

dkersten wrote: post #105
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that crypto mining is the only system designed to have negative marginal utility for each GPU consumed. It literally pays people to take energy and GPUs away from the open market for zero incremental gain to the network. The difference is that each additional iPhone or ML accelerator or cloud server CPU provides incrementally more utility. More ML accelerators means more ML processing. Proof-of-work mini…

> more ML processing I would argue that most ML processing by most "big data" companies also has marginal negative output for each additional GPU. Certainly anything to do with social media or adtech and a lot of analytics in general is a net negative for the world, while consuming electricity and processing hardware.

If you are this reductionist you can argue all electricity consumption is net negative.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#132

Post by pcurve »

tyingq wrote: post #11

The chip shortage is interesting to me. In that it seems to be mostly driven by bad forecasting both by clients and the foundries. But the foundries seem to get nothing but upside out of it. Perhaps it swings next time and there's excess capacity.

Yes, and they're stuck in a bad place. new fab takes years and costs 10 billion + to build...

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/322695-why-we-cant-bui...

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#133

Post by xyzzy21 »

cwizou wrote: post #63
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

> I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. One thing I heard is that the drought (worst one in 50 years in Taiwan) has really affected them, and various sources seem to confirm it, here's one : https://fortune.com/2021/06/12/chip-shortage-taiwan-drought-... And while I wholeheartedly agree with the crypto/GPU issue, all in a…

A recent Typhoon (one of the half dozen that hammered China) refilled all their reservoirs about a month or so ago.

The one thing that complicates economics is that it's not a linear equation like they teach in Macroeconomics. The equations are more or less "true" in a vague sense but each term is actually a differential equation term in both time and other quantities.

If you are familiar with simple one variable ODEs per STEM undergrad courses, imagine the 2nd order forms but now those exist across many variables and time spans. It makes you realize that CNBC is just pulling causes/effects and making predictions out of their asses.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#134

Post by breckenedge »

vimy wrote: post #94
photon-torpedo wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices for used GPUs are also inflated, though I think they have started to come down a bit. Once Ethereum moves to proof-of-stake (early 2022?) the market will probably get flooded with used GPUs.

Miners will probably move to Ethereum classic.

This. I have a gut feeling that a lot of mining rigs were bought with credit and haven’t paid for themselves yet. Those rigs will find a new asset to mine rather than being dumped. Outlawing mining is the only thing I see that causes prices to move downward

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#135

Post by mountainb »

dkersten wrote: post #105
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that crypto mining is the only system designed to have negative marginal utility for each GPU consumed. It literally pays people to take energy and GPUs away from the open market for zero incremental gain to the network. The difference is that each additional iPhone or ML accelerator or cloud server CPU provides incrementally more utility. More ML accelerators means more ML processing. Proof-of-work mini…

> more ML processing I would argue that most ML processing by most "big data" companies also has marginal negative output for each additional GPU. Certainly anything to do with social media or adtech and a lot of analytics in general is a net negative for the world, while consuming electricity and processing hardware.

Right, the ML processing is competitive in nature, just like the crypto mining is. Much of it also rests on illegal activity that just hasn't been discovered yet, whether overtly illegal (like botnets sloshing around ad money under fraudulent pretenses) or just mild to moderately illegal, like prima facie unauthorized database usage or use of scraped data. There are also uses of data that are illegal if it comes from US citizens and ?? if they are non-US citizens. Just because the government is collectively a fat slug when it comes to law enforcement in these areas doesn't mean the laws aren't on the books.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#136

Post by thehappypm »

officialchicken wrote: post #79
pW9GLKxm9taFEhz wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are people mining crypto on PS5s and Xboxes?

No love for automotive infotainment systems and dashboard gauges? Those have actually caused real economic damage due to manufacturing shutdowns.

Cars cost tens of thousands of dollars, so I think they should be somewhat entitled to use whatever tech they want. I’m more upset at every fridge and light bulb and oven having WiFi.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#137

Post by ozarkerD »

pcurve wrote: post #121
StephenSmith wrote: post #115

I'm in charge of sourcing components for multiple companies right now. I believe they could double (100%) prices and companies would pay it. There's chips that I'm sourcing from obscure places in China just to get the part and paying whatever price they ask. Designers are getting overwhelmed because they're having to redesign boards for components that are available, only to realize by the time they finish the change…

Their margin is approaching 40%. They're basically printing money at this point. It's hilarious how a manufacturer can be so profitable nowadays.

Genuine question because I’m unfamiliar with the market. Why aren’t competitors undercutting these big players? 40% is ridiculous

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#138

Post by baybal2 »

officialchicken wrote: post #47
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

I love how crypto has become easy-to-blame, when in fact datacenter after datacenter is being stuffed to the brim with chips for ML workloads. It's important to recognize when consumers are being squeezed by multiple market forces.

> when in fact datacenter after datacenter is being stuffed to the brim with chips for ML workloads.

I don't see this at all. All these GPUs for non gaming use are a tiny drop in the ocean in comparison to the mainstream market.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#139

Post by brianwawok »

tromp wrote: post #103
cletus wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this but it's even worse than that. Estimates on Bitcoin energy usage put it at over 1TW now. I believe it was comparable to the energy consumption of Argentina. Advocates will defend this by saying most energy usage is renewable. This conjures the image of someone with a bunch of solar panels but the reality is that it's primarily hydro power because that's the cheapest. Thing is, in regions with cheap…

Transaction fees will always make it economical to mine. They currently make up a small fraction of the block reward, but within a decade or two (5 block subsidy halvings), we can expect them to dominate. Btw, not all cryptocurrencies are deflationary [1]. [1] https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-su...

It won't if people realize that BTC is not a useful product, and the price falls to $1k or $100. At that point no one except someone stealing electricity can afford to mine, so the entire monetary system collapses and becomes worth the same as US Civil War dollars (can maybe buy a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow full?)

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#140

Post by starfallg »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #60
officialchicken wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how crypto has become easy-to-blame, when in fact datacenter after datacenter is being stuffed to the brim with chips for ML workloads. It's important to recognize when consumers are being squeezed by multiple market forces.

The issue is that crypto mining is the only system designed to have negative marginal utility for each GPU consumed. It literally pays people to take energy and GPUs away from the open market for zero incremental gain to the network. The difference is that each additional iPhone or ML accelerator or cloud server CPU provides incrementally more utility. More ML accelerators means more ML processing. Proof-of-work mini…

>The issue is that crypto mining is the only system designed to have negative marginal utility for each GPU consumed. It literally pays people to take energy and GPUs away from the open market for zero incremental gain to the network.

That's because the utility is not in processing transactions but the 'security' of the blockchain, which is funny considering the most of these blockchains are still looking for a use case that justifies their market cap and yet still run into performance limitations processing transactions.

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