The entire entire leadership team just quit and then they announce this?
That makes me worried this was rushed
Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
591–600 of 691 posts
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#592Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most commercial value is at Level 2 for quite a while.
Level 2 is becoming a commodity. Its commercial value will fall to zero very quickly.
I disagree. Only the most simple basic highway lane keeping is commodity and that is only small part of overall driving.
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#593Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are enough people in the developed world who are physically unable to drive or use public transportation in their area and who also don't want to be homebound that the economics could still work out even if they were the only market, which they aren't. > Just keeping sub meter scale 3d street maps up to date has a massive cost. True, but probably not actually necessary.
You seem to assume there is unmet demand that you can meet cheaper with automation than with human drivers. I agree there may be unmet demand but I don't see you get automation to be cheaper than a $10 an hour cab driver. I mean if automation was cheap and easy then our factories would all be automated before something quixotic like a car. It is frankly absurd.
>if automation was cheap and easy then our factories would all be automated
Please describe the last factory you were in.
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#594Earlier quoted context omitted.
Disclosure: I work at Waymo. At least the current fleets of AVs (Waymo, Cruise, etc.) are "obviously" potentially autonomous. I'm honestly more cautious now as a pedestrian when I see a Tesla coming after the FSD videos. I wish I could know "Is that Tesla owner using the FSD mode?"...
What is it about FSD that makes you fear for your safety? It seems a lot more capable than waymos solution. Edit: can’t reply because “rate limiting” That video is almost half a year old. Here’s a video from the same channel that’s 6 days old rather than 6 months old. Tesla pushes updates very frequently… https://youtu.be/y85oGY02gtg Here’s a video where the title says it all. https://youtu.be/tdHlKhKKOgQ I read one…
Maybe I should have linked to [1] as one of the videos from a couple of guys testing it out in Oakland.
[1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=antLneVlxcs&feature=youtu.be
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#595Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nope, not even close. There's a very specific reason they've picked Chandler, and it's that there's relatively little weather and the roads are fairly simple (among many other things specific to Chandler). The vast majority of the contiguous United States is decidedly not "on the table" as of now. "The contiguous United States" is still a decade (or more) away. It may literally never happen.
> The vast majority of the contiguous United States is decidedly not "on the table" as of now. So the vast majority of the US has either significantly worse weather than SF, or a significantly harder ODD than SF? Could you elaborate on that?
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Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#596Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to assume there is unmet demand that you can meet cheaper with automation than with human drivers. I agree there may be unmet demand but I don't see you get automation to be cheaper than a $10 an hour cab driver. I mean if automation was cheap and easy then our factories would all be automated before something quixotic like a car. It is frankly absurd.
>if automation was cheap and easy then our factories would all be automated Please describe the last factory you were in.
I have probably been in far more American factories than you. Obviously I am not going to answer your question directly because I have an interest in protecting my career or privacy but in my extensive experience in mamufacturing many things that you might think could be automated are not because it is still cheaper or more effective to pay a worker $15-25 an hour than to spend $15,000 on automation that doesn't work right half the time.
Here is the reality that self driving will confront:
cost effective, reliable, competitive automation is hard, even for seemingly closed mundane taskes like palatising products.
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#597Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder where "a country road with no lanes which barely fits 1.5 car in winter in the Czech republic" is on your scale... Something like this, just imagine the snowdrifts around it https://www.google.com/maps/@49.080269,16.4569252,3a,75y,307...
Or an ambulance going on the opposite direction (because that’s the only available choice) on a boulevard in a busy capital city like Bucharest. Saw that a couple of hours ago, the ambulance met a taxi which was going the right way but of course that the taxi had to stop and find a way for the ambulance to pass (by partly going on the sidewalk). I said to myself that unless we get to AGI there’s no way for an “autono…
That is 101 for autonomous driving. Solved years ago.
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#598Earlier quoted context omitted.
People at Tesla and other autonomous driving companies, of course are aware and worry about such situations. If you have a few hours and want to see many of the technologies and methods that Tesla is using to solve them, check out Tesla's recent "AI day" presentation. Tesla is quite cool about openly discussing the problems they have solved, problems they still have, and how they are trying to solve them. An incomple…
> People at Tesla and other autonomous driving companies, of course are aware and worry about such situations. Yeah, a Tesla couldn't possibly drive into a stationary, clearly visible fire engine or concrete barrier, on a dry day, in direct sunlight.
If you never fail, you aren't moving fast enough.
A million people are killed globally each year by motor vehicles. Staggering amounts of pain and injuries. Massive amounts of property damage. Tesla's cars are not supposed to be left to drive themselves. The chance to save so much carnage seems worth letting some people driving Tesla's, that fail to pay attention to the road, suffer the consequences of poor decisions.
Plus these problems are likely too be mostly fixed due to the fact that they happened.
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#599Are there any plans for a Mountain View trial? I live there.
Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
#600Earlier quoted context omitted.
pretty high if people won't use them because they don't trust them.
If you think governments can't simply legislate away people's freedom to drive in the service of corporate profits or what's "best for them", you haven't read the news lately.
You must be reading different news. Governments (especially the US) can't even get people to stay at home for a while to avoid a deadly disease.
It's borderline impossible that they will "legislate away people's freedom to drive" anytime soon.
Even if a startup appeared tomorrow that could unequivocally show that they have a perfect self-driving car that runs on fairy dust and cleans up cities as it goes, people would still demand their right to drive ICEs.