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Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

blog.waymo.com

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Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#371

Post by robterrell »

VelkaMorava wrote: post #197
hammock wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>“All rides in the program will have an autonomous specialist on board for now” This tells me that we’re still a long way Did you expect something different? I can't really see a boardroom writing a roadmap that goes straight from test rides (no passengers) with a backup driver onboard to actual rides with passengers - no backup driver onboard with no in-between steps.

I wonder where "a country road with no lanes which barely fits 1.5 car in winter in the Czech republic" is on your scale... Something like this, just imagine the snowdrifts around it https://www.google.com/maps/@49.080269,16.4569252,3a,75y,307...

You can replicate that without going overseas. Send that autonomous vehicle over the Golden Gate bridge, take any of the next few exits, and turn right. The street I live on is a paved horse path from the 1910s. No snowdrifts, but a lot of aggressive drivers angrily refusing to back up, which will be fun to see software deal with!

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#372

Post by minsc__and__boo »

dagmx wrote: post #247
MontyCarloHall wrote: post #59

“All rides in the program will have an autonomous specialist on board for now” This tells me that we’re still a long way from full level 4 (and certainly level 5) autonomy in a busy city like San Francisco. The edge cases requiring immediate human attention are still too frequent for the human safety driver to be remote, as is the case in Phoenix. Also, just a reminder that Waymo in Phoenix is nowhere close to being…

This is legally required today. It's not necessarily a reflection of Waymo. Whether their system was perfect or not, it's legally required they do this till the government changes their minds.

Yeah, the commenter straight up assumes that a person is present because the L4 tech doesn't work, when in reality there are legal, liability, and even user comfort reasons to have someone on board with this new pilot.

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#373

Post by standardUser »

throwawaycuriou wrote: post #215
standardUser wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The streets of pre-pandemic San Francisco were an unmitigated clusterfuck, arguably the worst in the nation at its 2019 peak. I imagine it's much easier these days for an autonomous vehicle.

Other than reduced volume has San Francisco done something to unfuck its clusters?

Absolutely not.

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#374

Post by im3w1l »

ggreer wrote: post #187
aaroninsf wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am in the AGI camp, but have wondered and still wonder, Why are efforts not focused primarily on interstate/highway travel, specifically, collaboration with DoT for mesh/distributed/coordinated long-term travel? I don't need a self-driving taxi. I would pay 20K for a car which participated in a federally-regulated framework which let me let go of the wheel when I get on a highway and let teh emergent cloud determin…

If you just want a car that drives itself on freeways, get a Tesla. Probably 80% of my car's 15,000 miles have been on autopilot. It automatically changes lanes to pass and automatically gets out of the passing lane afterwards. It takes offramps and interchanges. It automatically brakes for obstacles. It aborts lane changes if someone else gets in the way. It even works in rain and light snow. Other car companies are…

It has killed people letting it self drive on the freeways. It was a while ago and maybe it has gotten better since, but I don't think taking your eyes of the road is advisable.

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#375

Post by laichzeit0 »

gfodor wrote: post #350
laichzeit0 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Self driving is not possible anytime soon Define “soon”. For me it means 50 years. That’s an infinitesimally small amount of time. If we can have level 5 autonomy in 50 years I will say that progress was rapid and we really excelled.

I'd put 50 years in the "not anytime soon" camp. 50 years is an eternity nowadays with regards to tech.

To put it in perspective, 50 years is still less time than from now until when the transistor was invented.

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#376

Post by cyrux004 »

paxys wrote: post #341
gfodor wrote: post #27

Kind of interesting to consider how this adjusts priors on these outcomes: - Self driving is not possible - Self driving is not possible anytime soon - Self driving is possible, but requires LIDAR - Self driving is possible, and can be done with normal cameras I've engaged with a lot of people who presume self-driving reduces onto AGI, therefore it will not be achieved anytime soon if ever. I wonder which of their as…

Self driving for taxis is a very different problem than for personal vehicles. For the latter you can always rely on the human driver to handle the last 1% or 0.1% edge cases and still provide a ton of value. Taxis don't have that option, so it really is perfect level 5 automation or bust. "Good enough" doesn't cut it.

Taxis do have the option. Cruise remote operators "guide" taxis once every 5-10 miles during peak hours and thy expect to do so after public launch https://youtu.be/sliYTyRpRB8?t=212

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#377

Post by magicalist »

dnautics wrote: post #368
diegocg wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with your comparison is that the company that is "the spacex of FSD" is Waymo. And even them can not get FSD right.

Isn't comma.ai the SpaceX of fsd?

> Isn't comma.ai the SpaceX of fsd?

Astra, maybe?

Difficult analogy because the barrier to entry's a lot lower for car mods vs orbital rocketry kits :)

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#378

Post by whimsicalism »

arsome wrote: post #229
VelkaMorava wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder where "a country road with no lanes which barely fits 1.5 car in winter in the Czech republic" is on your scale... Something like this, just imagine the snowdrifts around it https://www.google.com/maps/@49.080269,16.4569252,3a,75y,307...

From what I've seen of Tesla's solution at least - even busy city centers and complex parking lots are very difficulty for present day autonomous driving technologies. The understanding level necessary just isn't there. These things are excellent - undeniably better than humans at the boring stuff, highway driving, even major roads. They can rightfully claim massive mileage with high safety levels in those circumstan…

It's unclear to me why Tesla's solution is so discussed. They are definitely not on the same playing field as Waymo or even Cruise.

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#379

Post by zestyping »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #266
paganel wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or an ambulance going on the opposite direction (because that’s the only available choice) on a boulevard in a busy capital city like Bucharest. Saw that a couple of hours ago, the ambulance met a taxi which was going the right way but of course that the taxi had to stop and find a way for the ambulance to pass (by partly going on the sidewalk). I said to myself that unless we get to AGI there’s no way for an “autono…

To me the solution to that is obvious and far better than the current status quo. The cars are all attached to a network and when an emergency service vehicle needs to get somewhere in a hurry there is a coordinated effort to move vehicles off the required route. As things stand emergency vehicles have to cope with a reasonable minority of people who completely panic and actually impede their progress.

This has to work even if network reception is weak or absent. You can't be certain that 100% of cars will receive the signal and get themselves out of the way in time.

Re: Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco

#380

Post by shadilay »

kfarr wrote: post #216
tzm wrote: post #163

> All rides in the program will have an autonomous specialist on board for now If you drive a Tesla w/ FSD, is it chic to refer to yourself as an Autonomous Specialist?

Perhaps Crash Test Dummy is the preferred term?

'headless driving enthusiast' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BgV-YnHZeE
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