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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#601

Post by ttobbaybbob »

It will be interesting to understand the long-term impact of covid on immunity. Given that covid came from GoF research have we developed defenses (albeit at an ultimately very-high price) that will protect us from future novel coronaviruses ?

other classes of virus? (ie how the plague resistance in those of european descent gives some level of protection against hiv [0])

Is this something we have a way to measure or will it be impossible to tell once everyone in the world has some amount of covid immunity?

0: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050325234239.h... (first thing i could find)

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#602

Post by autokad »

jjoonathan wrote: post #590
werm82 wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some research has shown that they don't do very well at stopping spread, so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? Do you have a link/links to where you read that vaccines don't do well at stopping the spread? Everything I've read is that vaccines, while not 100% effective at stopping the vaccinated person from infecting someone else, significantly lower the risk of spreading the virus[0]. That risk dr…

Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax talking points. Masks help, vaccines help -- it's all about pushing R below 1, and a measure doesn't have to be 100% effective (or anywhere near that) to push. Lockdowns do flatten the curve, and while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe,…

I am not anti vax, I am vaccinated and I recommend to everyone to do the same. However, relying on this vaccine as a long term solution is a very bad idea.

Also you are stating I am anti mask when I stated how I recommended mask usage. Do you not read or do you just force your expectations on people?

Sure, go ahead and dig through my history. not sure what you mean by 'a silent first wave'.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#603

Post by mirroregami »

autokad wrote: post #521

There is lots of competition for the top of the stupidity list. NYC locking down all summer and then 'opening up' in September seemed top of the list to me. It's not that I thought they should have stayed locked down the entire time, its that they should have opened in the summer so they could lock down in the winter if they really needed it. But seriously though, locking down in the summer to only open up in flu sea…

Only time CDC and WHO were anti-mask were when there were shortages. Save the masks for the healthcare workers, essentially.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#604

Post by AndrewBissell »

ceejayoz wrote: post #336
h3cate wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there any studies into the effects of being infected by multiple of these viruses at the same time? Or is this just what your doctor has told you? Also what do kids under 12 have to do with any of this?

Studies will take time. That said: https://www.npr.org/2021/08/14/1027663917/rsv-covid-children > At Texas Children's Hospital in Houston on Thursday, 25 of 45 hospitalized pediatric patients were diagnosed with RSV as well as COVID-19. "A hospitalization rate much higher than for either virus alone," according to officials. > At the moment there is little data available on the impact of contracting both viruses and…

> At Texas Children's Hospital in Houston on Thursday, 25 of 45 hospitalized pediatric patients were diagnosed with RSV as well as COVID-19. "A hospitalization rate much higher than for either virus alone," according to officials.

Would be interested to see the exact breakdown here. If 19 children are hospitalized with RSV+Covid, 5 with just RSV, and 1 with just Covid, it could just indicate RSV is particularly virulent for children and they are likely to also have Covid given they have been exposed to RSV. This would certainly fit with what we already know about the relative risks posed to children by RSV vs Covid.

This article from the Guardian suggests that the reason RSV is having an off-season surge is because children now have an "immunity debt" from being isolated as part of Covid protocols. It would probably not be a good idea not for us to double down on the measures that have brought us to this point. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-ch...

Good thread by an MD here discussing these issues and saying that coinfection rates are 50% for kids: https://twitter.com/contrarian4data/status/14298548764151316...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#605

Post by marwatk »

freewilly1040 wrote: post #391
marwatk wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with your numbers it puts a kid's chances of ending up hospitalized with covid at 1 in 128. Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group, but I'll still feel much better when my kid is vaccinated.

The positive case count is not the denominator. The chances of your kid ending up hospitalized with Covid are 287 / 100K, or .29%.

Can you help me understand why the case count isn't the denominator?

The posted numbers seem to imply that if 37k out of 100k kids had covid, 287 of them end up in the hospital. Does it not follow that if 100k out of 100k had covid that 775 kids would have been hospitalized?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#606

Post by nerdponx »

hcurtiss wrote: post #568
tialaramex wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or maybe the whole 'if we just lock down for two weeks, this will be over' tops the list of stupidity New Zealand had 26 deaths in over a year of the pandemic. Not 26 per 100k population. Not 26 per day. Twenty six people full stop. Because in fact "We go hard and we go early" works. Right now they are locked down (since last week) because they had one case in their community, but of course it isn't ever one case a…

Yes. For small island countries like New Zealand it works "great." This was never an option for countries like the US, or even most of Europe. Much less so for countries like India. But we'll see how it goes. If New Zealand and Australia persist in this notion that they're going to stay locked down until the virus goes away, particularly with its endemicity now inevitable, I think you will soon find vast swaths of th…

You can't really look at the US and say "it doesn't work", because even the slightest restrictions were leveraged into a major political issue.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#607

Post by baxtr »

beloch wrote: post #489

"The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earli…

I like your comment, but not this part:

> The thing is, COVID-19 is not endemic yet and, even once it is, will likely retain the capability of mutating into a strain that causes a new deadly pandemic.

I don't think that's possible, since I am not aware of a precedent. Meaning: the other 4 endemic coronaviruses which also started as pandemic and now are harmless cold viruses never caused a new deathly pandemic in a mutated form.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#608

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

jjoonathan wrote: post #590
werm82 wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some research has shown that they don't do very well at stopping spread, so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? Do you have a link/links to where you read that vaccines don't do well at stopping the spread? Everything I've read is that vaccines, while not 100% effective at stopping the vaccinated person from infecting someone else, significantly lower the risk of spreading the virus[0]. That risk dr…

Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax talking points. Masks help, vaccines help -- it's all about pushing R below 1, and a measure doesn't have to be 100% effective (or anywhere near that) to push. Lockdowns do flatten the curve, and while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe,…

> while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again).

Unfortunately, while hospitals can be built, you can't train enough medical professionals to staff the hospital in two years.

More generally, rather like nobody expects the Spanish inquisition, no health care system can cope with a global pandemic. We'd need to 10x health care capacity, most of which would sit unused for most of the time.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#609

Post by nerdponx »

mirroregami wrote: post #603
autokad wrote: post #521

There is lots of competition for the top of the stupidity list. NYC locking down all summer and then 'opening up' in September seemed top of the list to me. It's not that I thought they should have stayed locked down the entire time, its that they should have opened in the summer so they could lock down in the winter if they really needed it. But seriously though, locking down in the summer to only open up in flu sea…

Only time CDC and WHO were anti-mask were when there were shortages. Save the masks for the healthcare workers, essentially.

But they burned huge amounts of their social trust capital in doing so, because they didn't just say "there are shortages, please stop hoarding masks", they outright lied about the efficacy of masks and perpetuated the lie for months. If people have no idea what to believe, it's because the government led a catastrophically inept response.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#610

Post by chinathrow »

beachy wrote: post #584
hcurtiss wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. For small island countries like New Zealand it works "great." This was never an option for countries like the US, or even most of Europe. Much less so for countries like India. But we'll see how it goes. If New Zealand and Australia persist in this notion that they're going to stay locked down until the virus goes away, particularly with its endemicity now inevitable, I think you will soon find vast swaths of th…

I live in NZ and can assure you from the front lines of the revolt that we don't think we're going to stay locked down until the virus goes away. The game has always been to play it by ear. That's been a great call so far, we've lived normal lives for the last year while incredible scientific advances have delivered vaccines. This is a long game, and we've done well in the first quarter. I hope the politicians contin…

I wish you well.

What I feel is a real problem in the makes is that you eventually have to open up again but with not enough folks vaccinated.

And suddenly, you are in a situation many other countries have right now.

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