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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#581

Post by dstaley »

autokad wrote: post #521

There is lots of competition for the top of the stupidity list. NYC locking down all summer and then 'opening up' in September seemed top of the list to me. It's not that I thought they should have stayed locked down the entire time, its that they should have opened in the summer so they could lock down in the winter if they really needed it. But seriously though, locking down in the summer to only open up in flu sea…

> Or what about the fact we are 2 years into this and we still haven't built a significant amount of hospitals?

If I understand correctly, there isn't a lack of literal beds/space; it's a lack of personnel. Basically hospitals are unable to staff themselves at the levels needed to accomodate being basically 100% full. This is compounded by the fact that hospitals are struggling to retain healthcare workers, who are burnt out, and the fact that healthcare isn't something that someone can easily switch to.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#582

Post by hadlock »

Wohlf wrote: post #542
xadhominemx wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine refusal has not become a major partisan political issue in any other country. It happened here because of the shameless cynicism of the Republican Party and aligned media apparatus.

The US isn't even the most anti-vaccine country in the developed world, that goes to France.

Do you have a link to the most recent data? I recall The Netherlands having some severe resistance to masks etc, but I haven't seen a breakdown of vaccine uptake by country in recent months.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#583

Post by ithkuil »

Wohlf wrote: post #542
xadhominemx wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine refusal has not become a major partisan political issue in any other country. It happened here because of the shameless cynicism of the Republican Party and aligned media apparatus.

The US isn't even the most anti-vaccine country in the developed world, that goes to France.

You can have a strong and vocal anti-vaccine population and yet not have a strong divide on party lines. One factor is that not all countries have such a strong two party system that polarizes every single thing.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#584

Post by beachy »

hcurtiss wrote: post #568
tialaramex wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or maybe the whole 'if we just lock down for two weeks, this will be over' tops the list of stupidity New Zealand had 26 deaths in over a year of the pandemic. Not 26 per 100k population. Not 26 per day. Twenty six people full stop. Because in fact "We go hard and we go early" works. Right now they are locked down (since last week) because they had one case in their community, but of course it isn't ever one case a…

Yes. For small island countries like New Zealand it works "great." This was never an option for countries like the US, or even most of Europe. Much less so for countries like India. But we'll see how it goes. If New Zealand and Australia persist in this notion that they're going to stay locked down until the virus goes away, particularly with its endemicity now inevitable, I think you will soon find vast swaths of th…

I live in NZ and can assure you from the front lines of the revolt that we don't think we're going to stay locked down until the virus goes away.

The game has always been to play it by ear. That's been a great call so far, we've lived normal lives for the last year while incredible scientific advances have delivered vaccines.

This is a long game, and we've done well in the first quarter. I hope the politicians continue making good calls as the game goes on.

Don't assume that because we locked down hard that that will always be the path forward. That's your straw man talking.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#585

Post by imbnwa »

boringg wrote: post #512
SQueeeeeL wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People will always be sceptical of deviations from the status quo and politicians will always be there to capitalize on those fears for substantial gains of power. We have the most educated populis in human history and we're still seeing these problems. I'm not sure how you could fix vaccines becoming a political issue without major changes to the political structure.

We might have one of the most educated populations of all time but it’s still woefully uneducated.

Yeah, the value of "most educated populations of all time" depends on the outcome you value: "everybody has a minimum accreditation"? "Everyone is capable of robust reflection that presumes change over time"?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#587

Post by rayiner »

hackersword wrote: post #469
rayiner wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It boggles my mind why there is pushback on mandating kids to wear masks in schools. It really shouldn’t if you’re an educated person who is following what scientific authorities are saying. The science here is still uncertain, but leaning towards masks for kids in schools not being worth it. See: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-maski... > At the end of May, the Centers for Disease Control an…

Have you looked at the actual report and not the anti-vax site summation of the report? >. The 21% lower incidence in schools that required mask use among students was not statistically significant compared with schools where mask use was optional. I'm not sure how 21% lower is considered "not statistically significant", in trying to suppress the spread, ANYTHING > 0% is helpful. Full stop. Other stand out qualifiers…

> anti-vax site summation of the report?

New York Magazine is an “anti-vax site?”

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#588

Post by johnnyanmac »

beloch wrote: post #489

"The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earli…

> Turning vaccines into a political wedge issue is one of the stupidest things I've seen in my life.

Something tells me that this is just history repeating. The difference here is the same as your metaphor; the world is a village and now its much easier to see that one conspiracy nut every village has that gets outcasted.

The problem of course is that now those nuts can band together in the thousands thanks to worldwide communication and argue against the (still vast majority) of the village now.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#589

Post by xadhominemx »

paul_f wrote: post #570
xadhominemx wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine refusal has not become a major partisan political issue in any other country. It happened here because of the shameless cynicism of the Republican Party and aligned media apparatus.

I think the issue of vaccine hesitancy is much more nuanced than this. For example, according to the CDC, the population least vaccinated in the US are black. https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-...

Black people have their own idiosyncratic reasons for vaccine skepticism, unrelated to partisan politics. But anyway, Trump support is still a stronger correlation: https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/14207453318...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#590

Post by jjoonathan »

werm82 wrote: post #546
autokad wrote: post #521

There is lots of competition for the top of the stupidity list. NYC locking down all summer and then 'opening up' in September seemed top of the list to me. It's not that I thought they should have stayed locked down the entire time, its that they should have opened in the summer so they could lock down in the winter if they really needed it. But seriously though, locking down in the summer to only open up in flu sea…

> some research has shown that they don't do very well at stopping spread, so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? Do you have a link/links to where you read that vaccines don't do well at stopping the spread? Everything I've read is that vaccines, while not 100% effective at stopping the vaccinated person from infecting someone else, significantly lower the risk of spreading the virus[0]. That risk dr…

Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax talking points. Masks help, vaccines help -- it's all about pushing R below 1, and a measure doesn't have to be 100% effective (or anywhere near that) to push.

Lockdowns do flatten the curve, and while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). I was pleasantly surprised by the "flatten the curve" narrative -- usually the telephone game ensures that this kind of nuance gets buried under simpler, incorrect versions like "if we just lock down for two weeks, this will be over," but this time around I was pleased to see "flatten the curve" start strong and keep its legs.

CDC's initial mask take was wrong, but evidence changed their minds, and that's a good sign. GP, if you want to harp on this, tell me: if I were to dig through your post history would I find a bunch of poorly aged posts about a silent first wave?

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