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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#381

Post by NonContro »

staticassertion wrote: post #131
cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

The UK seems to have a 62% full vaccination rate with 71% having at least one dose[0]. That sounds really low to me. "Close to full vaccination" to me would imply close to 100% or, reading "full" as "reaching herd immunity" I'd think 70-80% fully vaccinated - still a very long way to go. I hear you that we will eventually reach a point where we've hit the new normal. It's just going to be whether that point is reache…

92% of Brits have COVID antibodies, either through exposure or immunity:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-around-nine-in-10-adults...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#382

Post by only_as_i_fall »

hcurtiss wrote: post #66
alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

Isn't the concern that children act as a massive spread vector such that breakthrough cases in adults may still overwhelm hospital systems?

A couple months ago I would have maybe agreed, but the delta variant seems to really through a wrench into this line of thinking.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#383

Post by throwaway4good »

martin_bech wrote: post #347
adrr wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

The masks part is easy.. it has no effect.. We have been on and off masks here in Denmark, and it seems to have no effect on spread. Also mostly you get covid when not wearing one.. from a family member or a friend..

It has a quite an effect.

If you notice at the moment the corona numbers are high in Netherlands and Denmark while low in Germany.

Because Germany has kept more restrictions in place, in particular mask wearing in shops and transport.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#384

Post by Scoundreller »

rossdavidh wrote: post #36

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

Add ferrets to the list of natural reservoirs.

Thankfully birds and pigs seem to be immune, which could have had a huge impact on food supply and transmission.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6494/1016

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#385

Post by estebank »

jypepin wrote: post #365
tzs wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's delta like for under 16? In the US through May 2021, so it might not be a good representation for delta, here were the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths per 100k for various age groups: Age Inf Hosp Deaths 0-17 37k 287 0.5 18-49 44k 1100 25 50-64 32k 2600 85 65+ 22k 5200 1140 Unless the numbers for delta are way higher, that suggests that for under 17 getting your immunity by actually getting COVID is f…

How do you get half a death?!

.5 deaths per 100K is 1 death per 200K.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#386

Post by bialpio »

anonymouse008 wrote: post #261
outside1234 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

> the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated We often overlook those who were previously infected. I believe this is a common mistake that makes for inaccurate groupings, which negatively affect the common good.

Can you elaborate a bit on how they are overlooked? You can still get vaccinated after recovering (high-profile example: D. Trump), and the recovered that have been processed by health care system can for example get the same QR code that the vaccinated get in the EU (helps with travel I believe).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#387

Post by only_as_i_fall »

nradov wrote: post #214
lamontcg wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.

The CDC estimates that the survival rate for the 18-49 age bracket (which accounts for most parents of young children) is 99.94%. And that's since the start of the pandemic without vaccination. For vaccinated parents now the survival rate is virtually 100%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

According to those same cdc numbers the hospitalization rate in that same population is ~40x higher than just the mortality.

It doesn't matter how low the death rate is if the hospital system collapses.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#388

Post by evgen »

staticassertion wrote: post #131
cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

The UK seems to have a 62% full vaccination rate with 71% having at least one dose[0]. That sounds really low to me. "Close to full vaccination" to me would imply close to 100% or, reading "full" as "reaching herd immunity" I'd think 70-80% fully vaccinated - still a very long way to go. I hear you that we will eventually reach a point where we've hit the new normal. It's just going to be whether that point is reache…

The UK has only just started vaccinating under-18s, who make up a significant chunk of the population, and they are not vaccinating anyone under 16 yet. This is going to skew the numbers a bit. Among older age groups the numbers get up into the 80s and 90s.

We are also lagging among BAME groups and in certain economically deprived areas. If you are a white 75 year-old in Wimbledon the odds that you are vaccinated are around 95%, while if you are a 30 year-old Pakistani immigrant in Bradford then I would put the odds closer to 50%. Still a long way to go, but constantly improving.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#389

Post by thingification »

h3cate wrote: post #221
rossdavidh wrote: post #36

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

Long COVID exists. Personally, it's always worried me more than the risk of death from COVID.

I think people who haven't had a chronic condition (including doctors) tend to underestimate the impact they can have on your life. Long COVID symptoms may not be "severe" or "serious" in a medical coding dictionary, but those terms in a medical dictionary are quite distinct from their everyday meanings.

The best evidence we have seems to be that somewhere very roughly around 20% of people who get infected (vaccinated or not) get it -- more if you're older, less if you're younger. Experts don't seem to be willing to say much about what fraction of those people will have symptoms forever, or to what extent (very happy to hear otherwise if somebody knows better!).

While case numbers are high again (in the UK) and with the more infectious and virulent Delta variant having replaced others, it's not totally clear to me that the risks from long COVID are even all that much changed since before the vaccines.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#390

Post by skadamou »

Does anyone know of any resources that talk about how endemic COVID might look for immune-compromised folks? I recognize there probably just isn't the research yet to make too many claims about how this disease effects people on immune-supressing drugs but I have found vanishingly little on the web that even takes a stab at what life should look like for those folks in the long run.

This is a rare Atlantic article that I think takes a level-headed and nuanced approach to a topic that requires some level of technical understanding. I tip my hat to Sarah Zhang.

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