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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#341

Post by whoooooo123 »

bodge5000 wrote: post #266
Expirat wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK Because it s not about the pandemic. It s about asserting control over population and making them obey whatever govts, ongs, big pharma or big corps come up with. A kind of a mass scale social engineering project. Edit: this btw doesn t need to be some sort of a secret group proje…

A pandemic seems like an awfully long and expensive way of doing that, especially considering they already did so before the pandemic through so many means (many of which actually make them money rather than cost them, I assume you pay taxes?) The only group who can be said to have really profited off this is pharma. Maybe they have orchestrated the whole thing, but I'd like to see some evidence first.

The pandemic doesn't need to have been deliberately engineered; it only needed to provide an opportunity for nefarious actors to exploit.

Unless you think we're living through the only crisis in history which powerful people haven't exploited to further their existing agendas.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#342

Post by elastic_is_slow »

bodge5000 wrote: post #266
Expirat wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK Because it s not about the pandemic. It s about asserting control over population and making them obey whatever govts, ongs, big pharma or big corps come up with. A kind of a mass scale social engineering project. Edit: this btw doesn t need to be some sort of a secret group proje…

A pandemic seems like an awfully long and expensive way of doing that, especially considering they already did so before the pandemic through so many means (many of which actually make them money rather than cost them, I assume you pay taxes?) The only group who can be said to have really profited off this is pharma. Maybe they have orchestrated the whole thing, but I'd like to see some evidence first.

> A pandemic seems like an awfully long and expensive way of doing that...

Actually a pandemic is a great way of establishing control and surveillance. Read Michel Foucault's analysis of the way the plague has shaped the society and power play between decision makers and average citizens.

https://foucault.info/documents/foucault.disciplineAndPunish...

> The only group who can be said to have really profited off this is pharma.

Really? The rich getting richer off the lockdown doesn't count? The governments getting excuses to strengthen the hold on their citizens?

Two groups off the top of my head.

Also don t try to find some ulterior motif for all of this(conspiracy ppl do this a lot), it can very well be done just for the sake of it.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#343

Post by at_a_remove »

It will be interesting to see if this will mutate into less harmful variants, or, with vaccines go the way of Marek's disease, and become more lethal. This is a fascinating global experiment that will determine our policy for decades either way.

Personally, the first thing I did when I heard that a vaccine was coming was try to find out if it was "leaky" or not. I could not find this information. We ought to be hustling on a non-leaky version, and perhaps that will be the policy lesson learned.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#344

Post by tzs »

SamBam wrote: post #45
cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

What's delta like for under 16?

In the US through May 2021, so it might not be a good representation for delta, here were the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths per 100k for various age groups:

    Age Inf Hosp Deaths
   0-17 37k  287    0.5
  18-49 44k 1100   25
  50-64 32k 2600   85
  65+   22k 5200 1140
Unless the numbers for delta are way higher, that suggests that for under 17 getting your immunity by actually getting COVID is fine. The main reason then you want to prevent kids from getting COVID is not so much for its danger to them but rather for the danger to the adults that the kids will spread it to. Kid gives it to a grandparent, and that grandparent is 20x as likely to be hospitalized and 2000x as likely to die as the kid. If the kid gives it to their parents, the parents are 4x as likely to be hospitalized and 50x as likely to die.

If the numbers for delta are at all similar for kids, then there is a good chance that there is not much difference between a population where everybody gets vaccinated and population where all the adults get vaccinated but the kids do not, suggesting vaccinating adults should be the priority.

The long term endgame is probably a population where it is endemic, everyone gets it as a child when they are young enough that it doesn't cause serious illness, and then keeps getting it every year or so for the rest of their lives. Those subsequent cases don't cause serious illness because they still have protection from the last time.

That's what happened with the four other coronaviruses that are in wide circulations in humans. They are thought to have caused terrible pandemics when they first got to humans which were deadly in adults but not bad in children. Nowadays they are still around, everyone gets them frequently, and we don't even bother to have a separate name for the illness they cause. We just lump it in with the illnesses from a bunch of other viruses and call it the common cold. Around 20% of common colds are from those coronaviruses.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#345

Post by h3cate »

ceejayoz wrote: post #336
h3cate wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there any studies into the effects of being infected by multiple of these viruses at the same time? Or is this just what your doctor has told you? Also what do kids under 12 have to do with any of this?

Studies will take time. That said: https://www.npr.org/2021/08/14/1027663917/rsv-covid-children > At Texas Children's Hospital in Houston on Thursday, 25 of 45 hospitalized pediatric patients were diagnosed with RSV as well as COVID-19. "A hospitalization rate much higher than for either virus alone," according to officials. > At the moment there is little data available on the impact of contracting both viruses and…

Interesting but until there is some real data around this personally I would rather see people who we know are at risk, elderly in poorer countries, get the vaccine over under 12s in first world countries. That's just my opinion though

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#346

Post by goda90 »

I really hope we take this as a call to put more research into effective and affordable antiviral treatment. Vaccines are great, but there is always a limitation. Better antivirals could save a lot of lives, especially early in a pandemic.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#347

Post by martin_bech »

adrr wrote: post #310
h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

The masks part is easy.. it has no effect..

We have been on and off masks here in Denmark, and it seems to have no effect on spread. Also mostly you get covid when not wearing one.. from a family member or a friend..

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#348

Post by erhk »

peteradio wrote: post #135
Pyramus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains. (Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

It seems like lethality can become a first order evolutionary driver though by turning our focus on it and quickly smothering any "hot" virus but allowing "warm" virus to spread. Can't humans play a part in the evolutionary process of the virus?

We cant stop it from spreading during its asymptomatic phase.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#349

Post by pasquinelli »

outside1234 wrote: post #229
h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

being scared doesn't actually do anything for anyone, but the vaccinated do not have zero risk. if the virus is always kicking around, then there will always be vaccinated people dying of it.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#350

Post by Pyramus »

q1w2 wrote: post #294
Pyramus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains. (Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

This is not exactly true. Keeping your infectious host alive longer, will increase transmission. This is why there is an evolutionary pressure for all diseases to keep your host alive, and why some diseases/parasites ultimately evolve to be less harmful/lethal.

No, there is no "evolutionary pressure for all diseases", only for those where lethality precludes transmission, i.e. there is some cap at a some max.

Which is not the case for SARS-Cov-2 - viral titers peak after 2-4 days and population-weighted IFR is relatively low.

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