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Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

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Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#121

Post by belter »

higherup wrote: post #115
pmkiwi wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that the vaccines are mainly here to avoid you to die or to require severe ventilation and, based on the available studies, they are doing the job. The hospitalisation rates are way lower than any previous wave but the law of big numbers still apply at some point... And the Delta variant is clearly a game change here. Finally, Israel is in a peculiar position because they have vaccinated - relativ…

> they are doing the job. As per https://spectator.com.au/2021/08/most-covid-patients-at-isra... >Dr Kobi Haviv, medical director of Herzog Hospital in Jerusalem, stated that the majority of coronavirus patients in an Israeli hospital are fully vaccinated, including those with severe disease. >Dr Haviv further specified that: “95% of the severe patients are vaccinated,” adding “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in f…

And with their track record...

"Pfizer Violation Tracker"

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/pfizer

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#122

Post by Dwelve »

jayd16 wrote: post #55
tracyhenry wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

You're getting down voted because you're falling into a statistical fallacy. For example, If 100% of the population was vaccinated, by definition 100% of those in the hospital would be vaccinated. That gives you no information on the effectiveness of the vaccine itself.

Can we stop calling everything an "fallacy" when you're just trying to say he's wrong? That aside what you're saying doesn't address the issue at all. You have a clear relation between two groups and an outcome and those relations clearly show that it was a bad choice to pretend we can lockdown until a miracle cure happens.

Let's put it this way, did you expect the outcome to be what it currently is? We have MORE deaths with Covid than we had at the same time last year. Is that what you would have predicted when the great results of the trials were published?

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#123

Post by mthoms »

charbonneau wrote: post #114
mthoms wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would their opinions matter? As for health, I think you might be alluding to pre-existing conditions? Can you elaborate on how you would see this affecting the result?

Extreme example: Person A with perfect health gets vaccinated. Person B undergoes palliative care and chooses not to get vaccinated. Person B's routine SARS-CoV-2 PCR test is positive and they're therefore classified as a hospitalized/severe case. It's a miracle that Israel even offers age-stratified hospitalizations data. But it's still not enough.

Do you really think scenarios like this could account for skewing the data by a multiple of 9? Come on.

>Without this information, it's tough to draw conclusions.

Oh please. This data overwhelmingly shows that vaccinated people (>60) have better outcomes than non-vaccinated people(>60). The only debate is by how much.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#124

Post by chaostheory »

vitaflo wrote: post #82
chaostheory wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pro-vaccination, but there's no sugar coating the fact that %60 of hospitalizations are of previously vaccinated people. I don't know much about mRNA vaccines, but do mRNA vaccines induce sterilizing immunity?

If 100% of people were immunized then 100% of hospitalizations would be vaccinated people. This doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective.

I’m not saying all vaccines are ineffective. I’m wondering if mRNA vaccines are effective long term since they don’t produce sterilizing immunity.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#125

Post by q1w2 »

tracyhenry wrote: post #94
belltaco wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both [1] and [2] predate Delta so I don't know what you're on about. Not to mention recently discovered waning immunity. So [1] and [2] could definitely have been true at the time.

Did the root comment say this is "INCREDIBLY" effective before Delta? Why is it so hard to understand what I'm trying to convey here? It's not "INCREDIBLY" effective now. Now waning immunity - did Pfizer or Moderna warn the world about it? Did they warn us about potential variants? Absolutely no, right? They posted the high numbers to pump their stock price. Vaccines are effective to some extent. But those two compan…

The other important piece of information is that vaccinations were not given out homogeneously.

The older and more vulnerable were vaccinated FIRST and at a higher rate, so seeing more of them hospitalized now 6 months later with a variant is not unexpected.

What it really means, is that those same patients would probably be in the morgue, not the hospital if it wasn't for the vaccine.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#126

Post by Expirat »

stevenalowe wrote: post #107

So… since Armor only stop arrows 95% of the time and wears out in 6 months, armor is useless waste of resources. (Facepalm)

So... Since there is a 0.2% chance of dying from covid(adult male in his 40s) you must take a vaccine that wears in 6 months, and take booster shots every year. You can still end up in hospital, you can still infect people, but it lowers the dying risk a bit. Also, government forces you to take this and if you refuse your rights are taken. Yep. Totally not stupid. Truly the work of scientists.

(facepalm)

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#127

Post by hammock »

lucb1e wrote: post #93
hammock wrote: post #41

There is more than vaccinated vs unvaccinated. There is also naturally acquired immunity. The best available science points to many interesting things you may not be aware of: "Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection". https://archive.is/RlwBc "Researchers from Washington University in St. Louis also reported last month that 11 months after…

Regarding the Cleveland Clinic link, a random one I picked out to verify, the confidence is actually very low, or more specifically, the statistic most relevant to your quote has a 95% confidence interval of zero and infinity: > vaccination was associated with a significantly lower risk [...] but not among those previously infected (HR 0.313, 95% CI 0 to Infinity) I'm no mathematician or statistician, but that sounds…

>95% confidence interval of zero and infinity

The reason the CI is like that has to do with divide by zero, not a low sample size. There were ZERO reinfections among previously infected people, regardless of their vaccination status. As the study says:

>COVID-19 did not occur in anyone over the five months of the study among 2579 individuals previously infected with COVID-19, including 1359 who did not take the vaccine.

The conclusions of the researchers are not wrong or mistaken - they accurately represent the data.

As for the "prioritized" comment, that's just the researchers being politically correct. As you point out, indeed these conclusions go against most countries' policies today. It's a tragedy that natural immunity is completely suppressed from the policymaking conversation.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#128

Post by t0ughcritic »

compsciphd wrote: post #102
tracyhenry wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

I got vaccinated over 6 months ago. I'm getting my booster later today. It seems that those who were vaccinated more recently are more likely to be protected against delta as well.

Booster? Where do you live?

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#129

Post by higherup »

lucb1e wrote: post #119
higherup wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the tendency to believe false information to be correct after repeated exposure. Like when someone say "vaccines are safe and effective", "vaccines are safe and effective", repeatedly, when the statement itself is very wrong because of the generalisation of "vaccines"...

Anything they're likely to get in a rich country will be safe and effective. Can't speak for places like Egypt of course, but you make it sound as if there is real risk involved for people on HN which there generally is not.

>Anything they're likely to get in a rich country will be safe and effective.

Can you show me a rich country where all vaccine AEFIs are strictly reported and followed up and serious ones investigated?

If not, then I am not sure how you can make that claim.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#130

Post by charbonneau »

mthoms wrote: post #123
charbonneau wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extreme example: Person A with perfect health gets vaccinated. Person B undergoes palliative care and chooses not to get vaccinated. Person B's routine SARS-CoV-2 PCR test is positive and they're therefore classified as a hospitalized/severe case. It's a miracle that Israel even offers age-stratified hospitalizations data. But it's still not enough.

Do you really think scenarios like this could account for skewing the data by a multiple of 9 ? Come on. >Without this information, it's tough to draw conclusions. Oh please. This data overwhelmingly shows that vaccinated people (>60) have better outcomes than non-vaccinated people(>60). The only debate is by how much.

No, it was an extreme example to better express the issue: We do not know why they're not vaccinated. We do not know their medical history. This isn't a randomized controlled trial.

More realistic example: According to this study [1], 4.0% of US citizens (>80) are immunocompromised. We know that ~5.8% of Israelis (>80) are not vaccinated. Is it possible that the unvaccinated in this age cohort have more serious pre-existing conditions and therefore had a way higher chance of being hospitalized? We don't know.

Is it wrong to ask for better data? We're capable of extracting the smallest detail from a person randomly scrolling through a news feed but we can't get proper stats on hospitalized people? Come on.

[1] https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/3/suppl_1/1439/2635779

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