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The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

telegraph.co.uk

301–310 of 442 posts

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#301
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“but a country with very low population density” Wrong!

25 people per square kilometer is a low population density. Look at how they define urban area.

That's not an accurate figure for the density where a typical Swede lives. Most of the population lives in the southern part of the country, a quarter of the population lives in the Stockholm metro area as well.

It's like using Canadian population density with the whole country when almost the entire population lives within a hundred miles of the US border.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#302
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like there are no adverse consequences to lockdowns : Tragedy: 1 MILLION more Brits have become alcoholics since Covid lockdowns began https://notthebee.com/article/nearly-1-million-more-brits-ad...

> ... https://notthebee.com/article/nearly-1-million-more-brits-ad... This is very clearly a link to a satirical comedy site (in the same category as The Onion).

Actually, notthebee.com is very clearly not babylonbee.com "Not the Bee is a humor-based news, opinion, and entertainment site from the creators of The Babylon Bee and Disrn. Like the name suggests, it'll feature some absurd and hilarious (but real) news that seems like it should definitely be satire."[0]

That link that apparently got @jmnicolas flagged, actually does cite an external source[1] which says, "the alcohol-related death rate increasing by 20 per cent in 2020 to the highest level since records began.[...] PHE data showed there were 6,893 deaths blamed on alcohol in 2020, compared to 5,819 in 2019 before the virus reached Britain."

(edit) This seems to be backed up by a gov.uk press release.[2](/edit)

NotTheBee definitely has a opinion/bias to their articles [3] but I don't think it deserves to be called "fake news."

[0]https://notthebee.com/article/welcome-to-not-the-bee [1]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9884297/Covid-19-... [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/alcoholic-liver-deaths-in... [3]https://notthebee.com/article/check-out-all-these-crazy-cons...

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Micromanging is not necessary. They just set the tone and don't hire people who would write anything opposed to their policy [1] which they rarely need to explicitly convey, although they do at times of course. People write things that they really like get rewarded. "Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media" by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky explains how this work with a very large number of…

Exactly. Internet commenters love to think their enemy's minions are stupid. In reality they're just as smart as you are and don't need to be specifically told what the people in charge do and don't want published and/or what tone they should take.

Just imagine if academia were like this...

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#304
post #173
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that is the point. The original saying is Hindsight is 20/20, implying it is very accurate. This version of the statement contradicts that, implying you can't really say what would have happened if things were different.

But 50/50 would be effectively the same meaning as 20/20. (20/20 means "person being tested sees as well at 20 feet as standard vision at 20 feet.")

I should have been more clear. 20/20 refers to vision and is used in the traditional form of the expression and is supposed to mean "very good". 50/50 refers to percentages, meaning 50% chance of being correct and 50% chance of being wrong, which would be very bad.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#305
post #173
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that is the point. The original saying is Hindsight is 20/20, implying it is very accurate. This version of the statement contradicts that, implying you can't really say what would have happened if things were different.

But 50/50 would be effectively the same meaning as 20/20. (20/20 means "person being tested sees as well at 20 feet as standard vision at 20 feet.")

I took "50/50" to mean like a coin flip odds.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#306
post #297
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bloomberg has major problems; they have no proper separation between advertising and editorial (a high-profile article on corruption in the Chinese government, following up on an article that had narrowly missed out on the Pulitzer the year before, was spiked in what very much appeared to be a move to protect Bloomberg terminal sales in China), and they still haven't retracted (or clearly stated that they're standing…

> their dubious "hack chip" story It shocks me that people believe manufacturer denials on this particular issue but still claim to be immune to commercial propaganda. It's unlikely there will ever be undeniable proof available to the general public one way or the other on this. But the story was well sourced, was definitely technical credible and the parts that could be checked all checked out. Literally the only th…

I'm glad to hear that Bloomberg is still talking about this - there was a point where it looked like they were just going to wait for it to fade away.

If it's real, it really shouldn't be that hard to prove conclusively - find the chip, scan it, dump what's in it. The technical parts are possible but not that plausible - not just the manufacturer but large internet companies with the right expertise were sceptical, and most of the people who thought it was genuine seemed to be non-technical. E.g. "had a chip encrypted on the motherboard" does not inspire confidence that this is someone who knows what they're talking about.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#307
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve seen accusations in the US that people were being counted as Covid deaths that died “woth” Covid, and would have even without it - I have no idea if these accusations are true, just that probably-nonsense leads me to the question: Isn’t it tough to compared countries with how strictly or loosely they count a “Covid death”?

Which is why good analysis looks at excess deaths (ie, compared to the average over the last few years). By that comparison Sweden has done very badly compared to its peers. See https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores... As this very article says: However, Dr Bhatt, the University of Copenhagen professor, is keen to point out that for all of its successes, Sweden saw more Covid fatalities than it…

> Which is why good analysis looks at excess deaths (ie, compared to the average over the last few years).

The excess mortality graph you link to only goes back 19 months, not a few years.

Here's an article which [0] references a paper which says that over the past 4 years there's no difference between all cause mortality in Sweden and Norway:

> "Our study shows that all-cause mortality was largely unchanged during the epidemic as compared to the previous four years in Norway and Sweden, two countries which employed very different strategies against the epidemic," emphasize study authors in this medRxiv paper.

It may be that Sweden had more older people than Norway at the beginning of the pandemic, i.e. a more vulnerable population. Also they admitted to doing a poor job early on in nursing homes.

I think you are simplifying this too much, insisting that it is valid to come to a conclusion on lockdowns based on a comparison of Sweden to two nearby countries. That doesn't exactly explain why a bunch of countries like the U.K., France, Spain, and Portugal that did lockdown had more per-capita deaths than Sweden. It ends up looking like you cherry picked your data, ignoring contradictory data, and not really explaining anything.

About Dr. Bhatt, from the same article you quoted:

> Samir Bhatt, professor of Public Health at the University of Copenhagen, and one of the team at Imperial College who pushed the UK's lockdown strategy.

It's too bad nobody asked him why the the U.K. with lockdowns had more deaths that Sweden without lockdowns.

[0] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-de...

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weren't a lot of Sweden's deaths very early and from nursing homes specifically because they were taking literally no preventative measures, though? They learned from this, and recommended different things for older people and nursing homes, specifically, was my understanding. If you factor out all those deaths in the beginning - the difference in deaths is not 10x. And 10x doesn't really matter. If 1 person died in…

What??!! What I'm hearing when you say "If you factor out all those deaths" is "Old people don't count". Economically they may not have as much impact as younger people, but they provide richness to family and community life that can't be replaced. So I guess my point is - you can't factor out those 10x people. Because they are dead.

I think the point is supposed to be that that figure can be traced to specific decisions regarding nursing homes. The supposed counter factual being that, if they had isolated sick patients from nursing homes, those deaths could have been greatly reduced.

I think it still begs the question that those patients could have been saved, but it is not trying to say that old people don't count. More, that the full lockdowns didn't really protect them, by themselves. As seen in NYC, where it is fairly heavily believed that any good the lockdown did was more than offset by sending patients back into nursing homes.

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like there are no adverse consequences to lockdowns : Tragedy: 1 MILLION more Brits have become alcoholics since Covid lockdowns began https://notthebee.com/article/nearly-1-million-more-brits-ad...

Do you have any direct source for that statistic? The article that you've linked to is the Babylon Bee -- a site best known for their satire and fake articles -- lifting some infographics from an (uncited) article in the Daily Mail. Neither of these sources inspires confidence.

What about this one? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/alcoholic-liver-deaths-in...

Re: The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to mental health, healthier economy

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are people still arguing about a countries population density in late 2021? It is a completely irrelevant metric, lets include the Canadian arctic when calculating the density of Toronto and the effects of Covid, makes a whole lot of sense! A measure which actually has some relevance on country scale is population weighted density. "Population weighted density refers to a metric which measures the density at whic…

Sure, there're a lot of factors that can affect how disease spreads, like demographics, genetics, climate, health system, sociability, temperature, cafe culture, saunas, wfh incidence, international travel, travel links, tourism... I'm quite happy to accept that 'population density' is inadequate - I mention it only in passing in my comment, the point I'm making is that Sweden is not a country you would expect to per…

Over the last four years the all cause mortality has been the same for Sweden and Norway [0]. So it would appear more people died in Norway before the pandemic, and more people in Sweden since, equalling out over the last four years.

So maybe it's not geography we should be talking about, but instead the number of older vulnerable people at the start of the pandemic.

[0] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-de...

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