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ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

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Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#171

Post by janmo »

rivo wrote: post #139

A few highlights from a conversation with a friend who works for Zeiss and regularly deals with ASML (take this with a grain of salt, I may have misunderstood some of it and he also may not be an expert in all of these areas): - The lenses (actually mirrors for EUV) only demagnify by a factor of 4. So your wafer template is already extremely small and costs millions to produce. - 13.5nm is pretty much the smallest wa…

> - Also in the thread, ASML has a monopoly on this tech. Others have not invested into EUV and by now, it's pretty much impossible for anybody to catch up.

Having basically the entire tech economy relying on one unique supplier is just insane. I hope their production facilities are very well protected and decentralised otherwise one natural disaster in the Netherlands or an Unabomber type terrorist attack and the semiconductor shortage we are facing now would be nothing compared to what would happen then.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#172

Post by sudosysgen »

cbozeman wrote: post #142
qorrect wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a real thing ?

"rigged with explosives" is likely a bit of an exaggeration. It would not be difficult to conduct a campus-wide evacuation then have the Taiwanese Air Force destroy the facility with targeted weapons. It might also be the case that the facility's precise coordinates are well-known to Taiwanese military's artillery units and the entire place could be reduced to rubble in minutes.

In the case of an invasion there wouldn't be a taiwanese air force left to speak out. Artillery could definitely do it though.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#175

Post by parsecs »

janmo wrote: post #171
rivo wrote: post #139

A few highlights from a conversation with a friend who works for Zeiss and regularly deals with ASML (take this with a grain of salt, I may have misunderstood some of it and he also may not be an expert in all of these areas): - The lenses (actually mirrors for EUV) only demagnify by a factor of 4. So your wafer template is already extremely small and costs millions to produce. - 13.5nm is pretty much the smallest wa…

> - Also in the thread, ASML has a monopoly on this tech. Others have not invested into EUV and by now, it's pretty much impossible for anybody to catch up. Having basically the entire tech economy relying on one unique supplier is just insane. I hope their production facilities are very well protected and decentralised otherwise one natural disaster in the Netherlands or an Unabomber type terrorist attack and the se…

Except I'd imagine that most people won't feel the terrorist attack quite so quickly, giving folks likely enough time to recover. If they got bombed up, all the foundries would be fine and can continue production of chips as usual. Of course, the machinery need sophisticated maintenance and replacement parts, but most of those can be produced by non specialist equipment (like normal mills and lathes and stuff for all the mechanical structures). Zeiss plays a big part with the optics and stuff so that would mostly be covered as well.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#176

Post by cgh »

ijidak wrote: post #94
Gys wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US (supposedly?) blocked ASML from exporting its machines to China. ASML is a Dutch company.

Ha. Tell that to all of Europe. Because so much trade is done in dollars. And because companies globally want access to U.S. financial markets, money transfer systems, companies and markets, the U.S. has the ability to tell even foreign companies what to do. That's why Europe was frustrated when Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran. And had to try to figure out ways of bypassing them. ( https://www.google.com/amp/s/www…

According to the article, some of ASML’s hugely complex supply chain is located in the US so I suspect that plays at least as much of a role.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#177

Post by stevofolife »

adventured wrote: post #151
erichocean wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

Then TSMC's intellectual property becomes public property. An effort immediately begins to clone anything relevant. Apple, Samsung, Intel, AMD, Texas Instruments, Nvidia, ASML, IBM, and so on. All are now welcome to take TSMC's intellectual property and use it in any way they see fit. It'll be a spectacular race, and those companies have the resources to pursue it properly. The same goes for all intellectual property…

Not “any” one inside TSMC know the company trade secrets. One of the reasons to why TSMC is ahead is due to the fact that many years of accumulated knowledge and experience is distilled into a few minds.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#178

Post by 01100011 »

rivo wrote: post #139

A few highlights from a conversation with a friend who works for Zeiss and regularly deals with ASML (take this with a grain of salt, I may have misunderstood some of it and he also may not be an expert in all of these areas): - The lenses (actually mirrors for EUV) only demagnify by a factor of 4. So your wafer template is already extremely small and costs millions to produce. - 13.5nm is pretty much the smallest wa…

> you have to build a particle accelerator

That's not exactly difficult. Particle accelerators are all over these days, from medical applications(radiotherapy with liniacs) to materials inspection(portable cyclotrons).

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#179

Post by dirtyid »

another_story wrote: post #118
erichocean wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

Then what? Probably a fight that will result in one of the greatest blows to the global economy ever, as well as the collapse of China as we know it today. The Taiwanese will destroy all the fabs before China can take them. We already have a chip shortage, can you imagine what it will be like to cut current supplies by another 40-50%? The resulting sanctions alone would cripple China. Hence, status quo will remain, a…

Destroying TSMC fabs is in neither US nor PRC or Taiwan's interest, it's the only point of consensus and mexican standoff leverage between all parties that prevents a TW war from escalating too far. IMO US and PRC would rather bargain some sort of sharing agreement over TSMC even in event of military actions in exchange for not glassing TW than have everyone lose access to the fabs.

> imagine what it will be like to cut current supplies by another 40-50%

And despite everyone's aforementioned desire to preserve TSMC, ultimately this is still a trivial amount if you consider that the East Asian semi supply chain accounts for 75% of global IC share and is completely within PRC missile range if there was ever an expansive east Asian theatre over Taiwan. Losing TSMC in war over TW will set the world back 1-2 nodes and 10 years, losing regional fabs and supply chains (in SK or JP) in a broader war over TW will knock out decades worth of capex. Global semiconductor industry is a 500B market, trillions in terms of industries affected, most of which benefits the west. PRC has massively more leverage in semi mutually assured destruction, so much so that TSMC is ultimately expendable if PRC is ever forced to act upon TW, because losing TSMC doesn't even scratch the surface of semi disruption PRC can cause US/West, who again are disproportionate beneficiaries of current IC status quo.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#180

Post by thephyber »

ren_engineer wrote: post #61
erichocean wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

America pays the price for its short sighted hubris chasing profits and thinking we could turn China into a liberal democracy if we threw enough money at them

This just comes off as a “I can see the problems with that approach from 40 years ago because my hindsight is 20/20” kind of statement.

It’s also worth considering that the cost of living in the US has been lowered because China has been the factory for our WalMart / Target / IKEA goods. If we didn’t open up China to the US / WTO markets, the world would be a very different place and that counterfactual is pretty difficult to calculate.

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