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ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

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Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#91
post #83
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_second_law : “the cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles every four years” I can’t find it, but I’ve seen people extrapolate that to compute when there would be room for only one fab in the world. Seems we’re there for one part of a fab.

Indeed. I've heard that there was a lead time of about 12 years on the EUV machines at ASML. I had a tour of one off their facilities once (generic recruitment thingy). Back in early 2000s they were working to correct for errors where the margin of error on their error detector was greater than the error that needed correcting. (The wave length used was about an order of magnitude greater than the lirhography result;…

> The wave length used was about an order of magnitude greater than the lirhography result; I have no recollection of how they claimed to handle that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_patterning and it's pretty insane.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#93
post #20

Twitter won't show complete threads now without an account. :( Twitter accounts basically de facto require a phone number, or they get suspended.

This isn't true at all. I just double checked and you can view the thread logged out no problem. Twitter's UI is admittedly garbo so depending when you clicked on the thread you may have needed to click an expand link.

Oh it's worse, it's location dependent. Developed countries have more limited access, which is kinda ironic.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#94
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

The US (supposedly?) blocked ASML from exporting its machines to China. ASML is a Dutch company.

Ha. Tell that to all of Europe.

Because so much trade is done in dollars. And because companies globally want access to U.S. financial markets, money transfer systems, companies and markets, the U.S. has the ability to tell even foreign companies what to do.

That's why Europe was frustrated when Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran. And had to try to figure out ways of bypassing them. (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/middle-east/voa...)

The U.S. has incredible, unexpected power over global companies and trade.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#95
post #37
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently the machines are pretty hard to replicate, the company (ASML) has had to deal with a couple of corporate espionage cases in the past[0]. [0]: https://nos.nl/artikel/2280228-wat-heeft-de-chinese-overheid... (in Dutch)

What I meant was TSMC uses these machines. Anyone else (except the Chinese I guess?) can also use these machines. What is the TSMC secret sauce that no one else can match?

Semiconductor manufacturing seems to have a very big winner-takes-all advantage, it takes enormous amounts of capital and 3-5 years to start a new fab, and the incumbents own a complicated web of secrets and patents that are basically impossible to navigate.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#96

Can someone explain why Intel needs TSMC to make their chips? Why can't they just buy ASML's machines and use them to make their own chips?

One aspect is meeting the overlay and CD targets throughout the stack to meet yield. Having a process that can find defects and more importantly practices to minimize the defects in your process is a big piece. Typically the process given to mass production would be only half solved and then the fab is trying to refine it in ramp.

I used to manage a fab of high end ASML tools and there is a non trivial list of things to continue and solve. You have reliability issues that require scheduling long (2-5 weeks) downtime to fix.

An upstream defectively issue in a spinner tool might lead to taking one dispense or develop node out of flow to improve the defect rate but in turn tank the Scanner efficiency by 40% as it waits to output wafers and that backs up the imaging. The reality is the ASML tools given to fans don’t have everything ironed out at rhe start. So fabs see the reliability issues in real time but there’s no time for the fab to take it out of production for 3 months to address a major part replacement. These all lead managers to make bad choices that continue to dig you in a hole.

At the time I was supporting 14nm it was well known TSMC had world class software tools and practices to minimize their fabs defects and maximize higher order control of overlay and CD bias. This allows them greater flexibility to take a tool down and fix the issues rather than live with them or have to use a band aid.

EdiT: I did not work at intel so can only speculate why they are behind but it was also well known TSMC photo engineers were worked 80+ hrs/week always . They were paid less so they hired more of them and they worked a lot longer so as a result they had better fab processes and support tools.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#97
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s quite a bit more nuanced. I recommend reading some work by Mariana Mazzucato to get some perspective. https://www.google.com/search?q=mariana%20mazzucato

Which book would you recommend?

I saw her present her book “The Entrepreneurial State” and read it. It made me look at public and private R&D investments in a new way.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#98

Can someone explain why Intel needs TSMC to make their chips? Why can't they just buy ASML's machines and use them to make their own chips?

They weren't very fast at buying those machines. TSMC bought more.

Incorrect ASML sold the first 15 to intel in 2015

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-orders-idUSK...

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML may rely on ITAR / dual use parts they enables export control by the US. Or, the US is simply applying a diplomatic squeeze on the Netherlands.

Last time I checked the lasers come from California, from a company that ASML ended up buying.

Cymer (acquired by ASML) is the company providing the 13 nm light sources for the EUV machines of ASML.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seeing as you need ASML people to run these effectively, maintain them, repair them - I'm guessing we will see a massive global semiconductor shortage if China invades that makes this year look like a cakewalk.

They can probably shut them off remotely. Also, some high end CAM equipment is geofenced. They are only licensed for one location.

As if a geolocation cannot be falsified :)
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