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ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

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Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#61

Post by ren_engineer »

erichocean wrote: post #59
ren_engineer wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML will matter for decades unless a competitor surpasses them. US is already blocking them from exporting to China https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wants-a-chip-machine-from... the company is probably as important as TSMC in terms of geopolitics now

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

America pays the price for its short sighted hubris chasing profits and thinking we could turn China into a liberal democracy if we threw enough money at them

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#62

Post by hughrr »

Bootvis wrote: post #17
hughrr wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Only time that happened was in East Germany and it didn’t work out too good.

It’s quite a bit more nuanced. I recommend reading some work by Mariana Mazzucato to get some perspective. https://www.google.com/search?q=mariana%20mazzucato

It's really not. The cost of production was too high compared to other markets which reduced demand. Which is exactly what happens with all government projects.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#63

Post by secondcoming »

erichocean wrote: post #59
ren_engineer wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML will matter for decades unless a competitor surpasses them. US is already blocking them from exporting to China https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wants-a-chip-machine-from... the company is probably as important as TSMC in terms of geopolitics now

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

Tomahawk time for the fabs

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#64

Post by sangnoir »

pas wrote: post #49
cushychicken wrote: post #28

ASML's first EUV machine contract closure was for $15 bil, and the contract explicitly stipulated that $3bil was just for the purpose of acquiring three specialty Boeing 747s for shipping the machines to the clients. Each chunk of the machine must be shipped in vacuum. It takes about 40 chunks to make a complete EUV lithography machine. Each is about the equivalent mass of a school bus.

Why the need for special 747s? Can't they put each chunk into a shipping container sized steel box and seal it vacuum tight, then ship that with regular 747s?

I suspect their equipment is susceptible to vibrations on a regular 747. I bet most of what makes their 747's special is dampening. Also, packing and unpacking the equipment increases the chance of things going wrong.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#65

Post by Kye »

ren_engineer wrote: post #47
xxpor wrote: post #24

I feel like ASML is the company that almost everyone who would care has heard of at this point. Granted, I hadn't heard of them 3 years ago, even though I work directly with HW designers. Its just funny how they're going through the hype cycle in their level of public awareness. Give it 3 years and (hopefully) the "general public" won't have to care about them again, because chip shortages are resolved :)

ASML will matter for decades unless a competitor surpasses them. US is already blocking them from exporting to China https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wants-a-chip-machine-from... the company is probably as important as TSMC in terms of geopolitics now

All it takes is someone figuring out how to do the same thing without all the specialized parts or bulk. That's the main cost. This is the way of tech: it starts expensive, full of specialized parts that only a few suppliers produce, then someone figures out how to do it cheaper.

At $1B a pop + 50% for lifetime maintenance, the incentive is there.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#66

Post by treme »

rapsey wrote: post #37
woudsma wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently the machines are pretty hard to replicate, the company (ASML) has had to deal with a couple of corporate espionage cases in the past[0]. [0]: https://nos.nl/artikel/2280228-wat-heeft-de-chinese-overheid... (in Dutch)

What I meant was TSMC uses these machines. Anyone else (except the Chinese I guess?) can also use these machines. What is the TSMC secret sauce that no one else can match?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loiltpe6q-s&t=3s

fantastic channel that goes in depth on chip industry

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#67

Post by wrycoder »

philjohn wrote: post #60
erichocean wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

Seeing as you need ASML people to run these effectively, maintain them, repair them - I'm guessing we will see a massive global semiconductor shortage if China invades that makes this year look like a cakewalk.

They can probably shut them off remotely. Also, some high end CAM equipment is geofenced. They are only licensed for one location.

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#68

Post by mixedCase »

erichocean wrote: post #59
ren_engineer wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML will matter for decades unless a competitor surpasses them. US is already blocking them from exporting to China https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wants-a-chip-machine-from... the company is probably as important as TSMC in terms of geopolitics now

> US is already blocking them from exporting to China Which works until China invades Taiwan. Then what?

Aren't fabs already rigged with explosives in case of invasion?

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#69

Post by sroussey »

pas wrote: post #49
cushychicken wrote: post #28

ASML's first EUV machine contract closure was for $15 bil, and the contract explicitly stipulated that $3bil was just for the purpose of acquiring three specialty Boeing 747s for shipping the machines to the clients. Each chunk of the machine must be shipped in vacuum. It takes about 40 chunks to make a complete EUV lithography machine. Each is about the equivalent mass of a school bus.

Why the need for special 747s? Can't they put each chunk into a shipping container sized steel box and seal it vacuum tight, then ship that with regular 747s?

Size issues.

If I remember correctly, the machines are designed to fit the plane and vis-a-versa. So they will be smaller on top to fit the curvature of the plane body, for example

Re: ASML, a $300B Dutch firm, makes the machines that make semiconductors

#70

Post by qeternity »

devoutsalsa wrote: post #36

I was thinking that it’s inefficient to transport equipment from the Netherlands to mostly Asia, but any place they’d be located would be importing part from around the world. And the cost to ship one of these things is probably a rounding error in the price. It’d be interesting for them to partner with Antonov to build a second An-225. Maybe the economics would make sense instead of needing to ship via multiple 747s…

I think you answered your own question: 747s are a stable, mature platform. Shipping is a rather insignificant cost, so it doesn’t make sense to take risks unnecessarily.
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