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Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

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Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#101

Post by ekianjo »

linuxhansl wrote: post #63
ekianjo wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. That's not how herd immunity works. You don't set a moving goalpost out of nowhere. We should be measuring R instead, and I suspect R is hardly impacted by vaccines at least for the Delta variant.

R0 is for the delta variant is 6 - 7, ergo herd immunity (1-1/R0) is 0.833 - 0.857. So, yes, it kinda works like that.

Except that vaccinations dont stop the transmission.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#102

Post by compsciphd »

tracyhenry wrote: post #36
linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

I got vaccinated over 6 months ago. I'm getting my booster later today. It seems that those who were vaccinated more recently are more likely to be protected against delta as well.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#104

Post by higherup »

ajay-b wrote: post #2

Is it possible The vaccine has the opposite effect on some people, rather than helping them to defend, it makes it easier for them to become infected?

Its called ADE and if Vaccine generated anti-bodies are not sterilising (as current COVID vaccines are), then the antibodies with the bonded virus, can take the virus to places that otherwise would be off limits to it, making it much more lethal..

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#105

Post by higherup »

throwawayboise wrote: post #39
recursivedoubts wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A possible mechanism I have seen mentioned is Antibody Dependent Enhancement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement I am not a biologist and have no opinion on the matter, I have just seen it mentioned online.

ADE can also happen with exposure to a virus itself, such as happens with Dengue fever. It's not something strictly limited to vaccines.

>It's not something strictly limited to vaccines.

I think it is the case if the vaccine does not provide sterilising immunity..

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#106

Post by higherup »

lucb1e wrote: post #60
belter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a purely scientific point a view, there is no reason for the post above (from ajay-b) to be downvoted.

It's often really tough to make the call on whether someone is genuinely asking and when they're seeding doubt (people going back and forth on a topic makes something seem under debate) or even plain trolling and trying to waste other's time (since it's so much quicker to ask the question than to adequately answer it). This particular case is a pretty plain question, I'm more speaking of the general case. What might…

>the tendency to believe false information to be correct after repeated exposure.

Like when someone say "vaccines are safe and effective", "vaccines are safe and effective", repeatedly, when the statement itself is very wrong because of the generalisation of "vaccines"...

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#108

Post by higherup »

jayd16 wrote: post #55
tracyhenry wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

You're getting down voted because you're falling into a statistical fallacy. For example, If 100% of the population was vaccinated, by definition 100% of those in the hospital would be vaccinated. That gives you no information on the effectiveness of the vaccine itself.

So even if 100% vaccination does not stop surges in covid hospitalisations, vaccines won't be considered ineffective, right?

Jeez, what was these vaccines meant for originally?

Just wanted to expose a flaw in this logic that seem to be repeated Ad nauseam

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#109

Post by 9935c101ab17a66 »

ikerdanzel wrote: post #100
tracyhenry wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say that the vaccine isn't effective. I'm saying this is nowhere near "incredibly effective". The post you cited is helpful. However, it is confusing the definition of efficacy. There were debates on what the efficacy meant when Pfizer and Moderna reported their high numbers. But there was *NO* definition saying that 94% efficacy means 94% of vaccinated people won't get SERIOUSLY sick. Most commonly, it mean…

Pro-vaxxer will not answer your original question. The fact is it is not incredibly effective now as Pfizer and Moderna effectiveness have drop to 70%+ and 40%+ respectively from their earlier 95%. 60% are hospitalize that means it is severe that warrant hospitalization. If it is incredibly effective, "hospitalization" for vaccinated should be under a few percentage point. Take a look at historical smallpox and polio…

“Pro-vaxxed” aka people who believe in science and social responsibility.

Also, the effectiveness is lower against variants like delta, and does naturally decrease over time. If we had higher vaccination rates, the spread of covid would be significantly reduced, and variants wouldn’t be such a large problem.

Also also, MRNA vaccines — EVEN AT 70% — far outperform existing vaccines like the one for seasonal influenza.

Also also also, where the hell are you getting 40% for moderna’s VE? I’d love to see a citation.

Oh, regarding “old stats” like the effectiveness of the smallpox vaccine: Surprise! No controlled studies on its effectiveness. Surprise! It has significantly more risk (both in terms of the danger of the adverse side effects and their incidence).

I’m guessing you’re not an epidemiologist?

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#110

Post by pseudalopex »

bsaul wrote: post #15
creato wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That means only 58% of Israel's total citizenry is fully vaccinated. Experts say that's not nearly high enough. 58% isn't that much higher than most other countries. France actually has a higher vaccination rate at 61%! So I'm not sure what you think the "country-sized experiment" is.

that's a very different take on the situation than what israel experts were saying just a few months ago. They reopened everything thanking the vaccine for that, and being happy of being the first country to heavily bet on mass vaccination. (note that the country is closed to people who don't have a pass, and people have to quarantine when they arrive). It looks a bit like they're changing the narrative now that the…

I don't know who Israel experts means. But public health experts in different countries said we wouldn't know until people got vaccinated. Some estimated it could be up to 90% of the population. Governments set lower targets like 70% of adults. But the government targets weren't herd immunity estimates.
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