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Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

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Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#81

Post by tracyhenry »

singhrac wrote: post #45
tracyhenry wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

In addition to the clear example of Simpson’s paradox presented here: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... , I offer you the following intuition: if only 4 people in Israel were unvaccinated and 2 were in the hospital with 2 vaccinated patients, would you consider the vaccine effective? It’s important to look at the right numbers.

I didn't say that the vaccine isn't effective. I'm saying this is nowhere near "incredibly effective".

The post you cited is helpful. However, it is confusing the definition of efficacy. There were debates on what the efficacy meant when Pfizer and Moderna reported their high numbers. But there was *NO* definition saying that 94% efficacy means 94% of vaccinated people won't get SERIOUSLY sick. Most commonly, it meant either (1) 94% people will have lower chance of getting COVID (i.e. getting tested positive)[1], or (2) 94% people will have a lower chance of getting sick [2].

Now the post you cited essentially says 94% people won't get SERIOUSLY sick. This just proves that neither (1) or (2) above is true.

[1] https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explai... [2] https://time.com/5945177/covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#82

Post by vitaflo »

chaostheory wrote: post #40
linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I'm pro-vaccination, but there's no sugar coating the fact that %60 of hospitalizations are of previously vaccinated people. I don't know much about mRNA vaccines, but do mRNA vaccines induce sterilizing immunity?

If 100% of people were immunized then 100% of hospitalizations would be vaccinated people. This doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#83

Post by lucb1e »

hammock wrote: post #74
linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

Natural immunity is also incredibly effective. How many of the unvaccinated are recovered patients with natural immunity?

That's news to me, I seem to remember news stories from last year that people were being infected multiple times and the immunity from having endured COVID-19 was not actually that good. Quickly trying to look this up with 'covid-19 reinfection' as query (trying to avoid confirmation bias in that search), the top hit on DDG is the USA CDC which writes:

> Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated. --https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm

Reinfection occurs much more frequently if you don't get vaccinated, if I am reading this right. Not sure I'd call "natural" immunity "also" or "incredibly" effective.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#84

Post by xiphias2 »

mthoms wrote: post #57
tracyhenry wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

>the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among vaccinated people in that age bracket. From the article. Emphasis is mine.

The under-60 part doesn't really count as the age of vaccinated people is generally higher than the age of unvaccinated people. I trust the over-60 data to represent the efficiency of the vaccine against the Delta variant better.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#85

Post by linuxhansl »

tracyhenry wrote: post #36
linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

If 100% of all people are vaccinated that 100% of all hospitalization would be from vaccinated people. That says nothing about effectiveness of the vaccines.

78.8% of the population we're talking about here are vaccinated.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#86

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

linuxhansl wrote: post #66
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't you mean the remaining 21.2%?

Oops. Yes.

I mean, don't you feel like this at least somewhat changes your conclusion then? Yes, the vaccines are quite effective, but now it means that the unvaccinated are only doubly overrepresented in new cases, which at least changes the calculus in my mind.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#87

Post by belltaco »

tracyhenry wrote: post #81
singhrac wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition to the clear example of Simpson’s paradox presented here: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... , I offer you the following intuition: if only 4 people in Israel were unvaccinated and 2 were in the hospital with 2 vaccinated patients, would you consider the vaccine effective? It’s important to look at the right numbers.

I didn't say that the vaccine isn't effective. I'm saying this is nowhere near "incredibly effective". The post you cited is helpful. However, it is confusing the definition of efficacy. There were debates on what the efficacy meant when Pfizer and Moderna reported their high numbers. But there was *NO* definition saying that 94% efficacy means 94% of vaccinated people won't get SERIOUSLY sick. Most commonly, it mean…

Both [1] and [2] predate Delta so I don't know what you're on about.

Not to mention recently discovered waning immunity. So [1] and [2] could definitely have been true at the time.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#88

Post by est31 »

charbonneau wrote: post #78
est31 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a statistical effect called Simpson's Paradox. The 60% is nothing to be worried about. https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1427465566210695178

The Simpson's Paradox seems to refer to something else: https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1428014414666420230

If you go by what Simpson wrote, then maybe it is a different paradox. If you go by what most people are being taught the Simpson's paradox is, then no. Ultimately it's besides the point. The conflict is resolved by better statistics.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#89

Post by belltaco »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #86
linuxhansl wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oops. Yes.

I mean, don't you feel like this at least somewhat changes your conclusion then? Yes, the vaccines are quite effective, but now it means that the unvaccinated are only doubly overrepresented in new cases, which at least changes the calculus in my mind.

The vaccinated folks are mostly old people and people with comorbidities, and the unvaccinated are mostly young and healthy people, so you're not comparing like for like.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#90

Post by belltaco »

rubicon33 wrote: post #33
linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I think it's still concerning that 60% of hospitalizations are vaccinated patients. Even if 79% of the population is vaccinated.

The vaccinated folks are mostly old people and people with comorbidities, and the unvaccinated are mostly young and healthy people, so you're not comparing like for like.
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