Depressing to read all the anti-vax and pro-Covid comments on this generally enlightened forum while much of the healthcare system of the southern US is being overwhelmed by un-vaccinated Covid patients.
Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
71–80 of 138 posts
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
Notwithstanding any fallacies that may exist (can you point out a specific one?), the best available scientific evidence suggests that natural immunity is much stronger than the vaccines against COVID: "Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection". https://archive.is/RlwBc
By natural immunity I think you meant to say disease induced immunity. Just to be clear about what that actually entails.
That is true. I know many people who had to endure several days of no taste/smell and a cough in order to get it.
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's still concerning that 60% of hospitalizations are vaccinated patients. Even if 79% of the population is vaccinated.
Best case, the Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective at preventing serious illness and death. This has been known since the beginning. If you vaccinate 100% of the total population, you'll find that 100% of hospitalised and dead patients have been fully vaccinated. TL;DR: This is only concerning if one doesn't properly grasp statistics. Most of us (self included) fail at this.
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Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#74Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.
Natural immunity is also incredibly effective. How many of the unvaccinated are recovered patients with natural immunity?
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#75Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.
I'm pro-vaccination, but there's no sugar coating the fact that %60 of hospitalizations are of previously vaccinated people. I don't know much about mRNA vaccines, but do mRNA vaccines induce sterilizing immunity?
It's a statistical effect called Simpson's Paradox. The 60% is nothing to be worried about.
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#76Depressing to read all the anti-vax and pro-Covid comments on this generally enlightened forum while much of the healthcare system of the southern US is being overwhelmed by un-vaccinated Covid patients.
I am not arguing against vaccination or saying you dont have a valid concern.
But I think we need to also make sense of scenarios like for example India. Has only 9.2% of fully vaccinated and if you look at the daily infection rates it dropped dramatically.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/india-covid-c...
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?
in principle you shouldn’t be downvoted if you’re adding to the conversation, and whilst i don’t agree with your overall thesis, i think you have a valid concern. the OP’s statistics line up with the assertion that vaccines are certainly effective. if they weren’t, we’d expect to see similar proportions of vaccinated peoples hospitalised with covid. certainly, the vaccines have lost some of their efficacy. it can pro…
There is not a single known variant that provably escapes vaccine protection. It is not inevitable and it has not happened yet.
Waning immunity has nothing to do with the virus mutating, it is just how the immune system works.
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm pro-vaccination, but there's no sugar coating the fact that %60 of hospitalizations are of previously vaccinated people. I don't know much about mRNA vaccines, but do mRNA vaccines induce sterilizing immunity?
It's a statistical effect called Simpson's Paradox. The 60% is nothing to be worried about. https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1427465566210695178
The Simpson's Paradox seems to refer to something else:
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1428014414666420230
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?
In addition to the clear example of Simpson’s paradox presented here: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... , I offer you the following intuition: if only 4 people in Israel were unvaccinated and 2 were in the hospital with 2 vaccinated patients, would you consider the vaccine effective? It’s important to look at the right numbers.
The Simpson's paradox seems to refer to something else:
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1428014414666420230
Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?
>the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among vaccinated people in that age bracket. From the article. Emphasis is mine.
The question is: What's the difference between un-/vaccinated people >60? Why aren't they vaccinated? Different opinions? Health-related reasons? Without this information, it's tough to draw conclusions.