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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#601

Post by mint2 »

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Our plan is to take easy precautions like masks until we stop having massive waves whenever they’re relaxed that fill up icus like in Alabama. Probably in a year we’ll be able to relax them without that happening. What do you propose? Are you against the current mask mandates?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#602

Post by st1ck »

betwixthewires wrote: post #460
ivanhoe wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire It's really funny to watch all the push back against masks considering how many uncomfortable things people put on themselves every single day, and usually just because someone told them it's cool thing to do. High heels, bras, neckties, etc. and not to forget things that we do to our bodies like implants and piercings and tattoos - most of that is way less use…

The difference is that those are worn by choice, and in very specific social situations. A more comparable thing would be to shoes, or shirts, since we are talking about everyone wearing them. It's not just a matter of making it cool, hats are cool and not everyone wears a hat. Facial expression is a very important part of human interaction and I think that will always outweigh any amount of cool that can be pumped i…

Bras are often a question of necessity (avoid extra attention to nipples) than a style preference.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#603

Post by betwixthewires »

washadjeffmad wrote: post #585
betwixthewires wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're misdirecting and missing the point entirely. While I'm not quite anti mask like the parent comment, it is an important question to consider, it is always a trade off. What severity warrant what measures? If there's still covid like now in 10 years, will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire? Is this feasible? If not, then when do we stop? Will the people advocating it ever tell us to stop? If not,…

Masks are a new hygiene standard. Do you think the enlightened gentlemen doctors of the age actually set a bar of how many women should die before they began to wash their hands? They smeared, they waffled, and now they serve as the warning to all of the the terrible, prideful (and filthy) fools who robbed families of their wives, daughters, and mothers over something people today balk at the idea of not doing- washi…

Jesus Christ we aren't talking about backyard c-sections with gritty fingernails here. We are talking about breathing the air and smiling at others. Get a grip.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#604

Post by dannyz »

empthought wrote: post #470
dannyz wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point this is just arguing semantics, but my understanding is that the herd immunity threshold is defined when Reff < 1. You could have Reff=0.99999999, which counts as herd immunity being reached, but it would take a very long time for the virus to actually disappear. Even if we do momentarily hit Reff < 1 for the delta variant, there could be mutations/waning immunity that causes it to stay around 1 becomin…

No, it is impossible to reach herd immunity if Reff >= 1, but Reff Hence, “herd” immunity.

Herd immunity would usually be defined as: if a contagion is introduced to a community will it spread uncontrolled or will it die off. Reff 1 implies it will spread. Herd immunity does not mean that the contagion is not present within the community or anything about the relative risk between immune/non-immune community members.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#605

Post by undersuit »

phkahler wrote: post #596
foldr wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP is probably making some kind of reference to this: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n954 I think they’ve got things a bit mixed up re the spike protein being the crucial element, though. We now know beyond doubt that the risk of blood clots associated with any of the major vaccines is tiny, and very probably zero. Despite a lot of scare stories in the media, there has never really been any good evidence of a li…

>> If the vaccines were dangerous we’d be seeing their harmful effects on a massive scale by now. That's a bit all-or-nothing. There have been cases of bad reactions to them (small scale). That's not my point though, and to be clear I'm not anti-vax, just wondering if the spike proteins actually cause damage, possibly cumulative. I don't recall where I got the idea that they are responsible for damage though.

The viral infections don't make the perfect amount of spike protein for every complete viral particle that comes from the cellular infection, when the cell bursts open plenty of spike proteins and other partially assembled viral components are put into the blood stream.

I'd think that if the spike protein was causing the reactions you mentioned we would have seen the spike protein is dangerous. An active infection is going to make more free floating spike protein in your body than the RNA vaccine ever did.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#606

Post by undersuit »

tunesmith wrote: post #318
undersuit wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bacteria can mutate in direct response to antibiotics. Viruses cannot mutate in direct response to vaccines. What do you mean by this? Are you a Lamarckian?

I don't know what that is. Put a bacteria and an antibiotic in a petri dish, and the bacteria can evolve in a way that has greater antibiotic resistance. Put a vaccine in a petri dish with a virus, and nothing happens. Bacteria are living organisms. Viruses are not.

Think of viral particles as analogous to bacterial spores or plant seeds. A bacterial spore also wouldn't necessarily evolve in a petri dish with antibiotics, it needs a certain set of conditions to exit dormancy, for example a petri dish isn't implied to have agar in it nor do all bacteria thrive on agar.

The actual "life" of a virus starts once the viral load has co-opted the cellular machinery of the infected cell.

Viral infections can definitely evolve when a selective pressure is put on them.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#607

Post by henrikschroder »

epylar wrote: post #519
henrikschroder wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthy children are at approximately one-in-a-million risk of dying from covid-19 if they get infected. It's more dangerous for you to drive someplace with your kid than for your kid to remain unvaccinated. Children in risk groups should of course get vaccinated. But we're much better off making sure the limited supply of vaccines go to older people in other parts of the world than to healthy kids in the developed w…

Source for 1/1000000 death risk for children infected by covid-19 delta variant?

https://qcovid.org/Calculation

(That's from the university of Oxford in the UK if you think the URL looks funny.)

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#608

Post by henrikschroder »

nieve wrote: post #528
epylar wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source for 1/1000000 death risk for children infected by covid-19 delta variant?

There is no source, if it was true children simply wouldn't have died in numbers high enough to detect so far.

Note that I said healthy children. Pretty much all of the children and teenagers who have died in the US, and elsewhere, have been in a risk group. Diabetes, usually.

If your child is in a risk group, you should be worried, and you should want that child to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

If not, it's extremely irrational to worry about your kid dying of covid because that's in lightning-strike territory.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#609

Post by systemvoltage »

SergeAx wrote: post #556
systemvoltage wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am surprised you didn't discuss how masks affect the most fundamental aspect of social interaction - loss of facial expressions. Our faces are so pivotal to social interaction, it is impossible to overstate.

With work from home you don't need a facial expression at all. Just close your Jira tickets quick enough, and surveillance software will ensure you are not doing anything funny in your working hours.

Oh my..., touche. This hits too close to home for me.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#610

Post by pacerwpg »

walterbell wrote: post #493
pacerwpg wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would an in-hospital treatment of Ivermectin reduce the number of cases? It's only being used when people are already in the hospital with symptoms, which really should have almost zero impact on the spread of disease.

Ivermectin proponents recommend early treatment, including outpatient and prophylactic usage with zinc to slow viral progression: https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/

But that wouldn't have much effect on cases, unless they simply stop counting cases.
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