Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#111

Post by OrderlyTiamat » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 2:26 PM UTC

_y5hn wrote: post #105

rvp-x wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have mountains of data about the current vaccine. This amount of disease-tracking is unheard of. Almost any institution in the world has regular discussions about this singular disease. Governments spend huge resources to pinpoint the exact minimum measures that can control the spread enough. My country attempted a 3rd dose, and within 2 weeks they were already reporting data on reduced risk of catching the virus…

Sampling 3rd dose after two weeks would be statistically insignificant and not enough time to record stats from sickness.

I dont understand, why would that be "statiatically insignificant"? for what analysis?

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#112

Post by methodiosmel » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 2:27 PM UTC

meheleventyone wrote: post #61

Rezwoodly wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh, you did get vaccinated and still have these symptoms. You could also fairly end your TLDR with 'did get vaccinated, this sucks'. It seems we are still learning about the efficacy of the vaccines, and the nature of the virus. From this pov I understand why some are hesitant to be vaccinated in this phase of the pandemic

Yes my point is that it’d be worse without being vaccinated and that my wife who is also vaccinated and spent seven days in close proximity with me whilst symptomatic has not been infected.

My entire unvaccinated family spent the entire time with me while I was symptomatic and were not affected. They ended up getting it a month after I recovered. We all recovered within a few days and over a year and a half later we still have the antibodies (tested ourselves a few weeks ago).

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#113

Post by benf76 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 2:45 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #30

benf76 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a risk of creating variants by mass vaccination. If everyone has a uniform defense generated by a vaccine, this creates selection pressures for a variant that is able to maneuver around the vaccine induced immunity.

Absolute nonsense though, as proven by looking at literally any of the diseases we have been vaccinating people for decades. Polio vaccine hasn't caused super polio to emerge, just like vaccines haven't caused super variants of hepatitis B, tetanus or whooping cough - all things that children are vaccinated against. Even the flu vaccine doesn't cause new variants, and that has a spotty coverage at best. Like, what yo…

You are comparing apples and oranges. It is this reason there has never been a successful corona virus vaccine despite decades and billions of dollars of research.

Look up “leaky vaccines”

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#114

Post by meheleventyone » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 2:47 PM UTC

anonymouse008 wrote: post #109

meheleventyone wrote: post #11

Tangentially related but I’m on day 9 of COVID infection which is easily the longest I’ve been sick in years. I got two shots of Pfizer last one on the 13th of July. If the vaccine has kept this relatively mild then I’m very glad. It sucks. My main symptoms are a stuffed up face, cough, sore throat, aching body and an extremely fuzzy head that seems to come and go. I had a slightly raised temp at the start but otherw…

> Annoyingly my first test was negative even though I was symptomatic so I was wandering around being infectious for seven days. This is my hypothesis for why we are seeing such spread after a mass vaccine event. The moral hazard of a vaccine and negative test are more dangerous than Covid itself. 7 days of additional spread are exponentially more detrimental to the goal of stopping spread… which stops hospitalizatio…

I don’t know the reason the false negative nor how the rate differs between vaccinated and non-vaccinated nor do I know of any studies looking into it so this seems like a worry you’re concocting out of thin air. Particularly as we know the delta variant is more infectious so is a much more likely reason for any increased spread.

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#115

Post by anonymouse008 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 3:00 PM UTC

meheleventyone wrote: post #114

anonymouse008 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Annoyingly my first test was negative even though I was symptomatic so I was wandering around being infectious for seven days. This is my hypothesis for why we are seeing such spread after a mass vaccine event. The moral hazard of a vaccine and negative test are more dangerous than Covid itself. 7 days of additional spread are exponentially more detrimental to the goal of stopping spread… which stops hospitalizatio…

I don’t know the reason the false negative nor how the rate differs between vaccinated and non-vaccinated nor do I know of any studies looking into it so this seems like a worry you’re concocting out of thin air. Particularly as we know the delta variant is more infectious so is a much more likely reason for any increased spread.

While I agree it’s an intuitive based hypothesis — a close cousin to concocting out of thin air - I don’t think it’s improper to attempt to find the proper weight to assign to additional days in public for its effect on a variants transmission vs it’s inherent mutations. Does that make sense?

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#116

Post by blueflow » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 3:12 PM UTC

quicklime wrote: post #16

blueflow wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cross-reference it to https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vac... I suspect we have the deadlier variants not despite, but because we are vaccinating and the vaccination is not effective in preventing spread.

Why do you think that? The Alpha and Delta variants were both first detected in late 2020 - before the vaccines were widely available.

How can i make a statement weaker and more open ended than with "i suspect"? "Could it be"? I didn't even wanted to back it up, it was more intended as an open thought, but its seems it didn't get across in the heat of the thread.

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#117

Post by ekianjo » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 3:46 PM UTC

EugeneOZ wrote: post #87

ekianjo wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid affects your intellect Accordingly to a poorly designed paper, which is probably completely bullshit and not reproducible.

I see you are an expert. Will believe you then.

You don't have to be an expert to see the flaws in a study design.

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#118

Post by ekianjo » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 3:49 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #56

grandpoobah wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps you could specify which parts are not true, and provide a retort? What OP said seems to be consistent with what we're seeing, but I am by no means an expert on the subject, so I'd like to hear your counterpoints.

>>So the virus will happily keep infecting as many people as it can regardless of the vaccines. This part very specifically and provably isn't true. Vaccines reduce the actual transmission rate by about 90%. What you said about vaccinated people who have managed to get infected still carrying the same viral load is actually true - but your comment makes it sound as if the virus will keep spreading at the same pace re…

> Vaccines reduce the actual transmission rate by about 90%.

Based on what data? If that were the case, then R would have fallen way below 1 in Israel or Iceland.

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#119

Post by _y5hn » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 4:12 PM UTC

OrderlyTiamat wrote: post #111

_y5hn wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sampling 3rd dose after two weeks would be statistically insignificant and not enough time to record stats from sickness.

I dont understand, why would that be "statiatically insignificant"? for what analysis?

I replied to the last paragraph of parent poster. If you study the few people getting dose 3 two weeks after, you're not going to learn anything about effectiveness of dose 3.

Re: Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?

#120

Post by daenz » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #89

gunapologist99 wrote: post #86

"three-fourths of the nearly 470 cases were in vaccinated people" https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccin... (from a leaked CDC memo; it seems like figuring out whether the CDC data should have been kept secret at all is left as an exercise for the reader.) (edit: better source)

If you have an outbreak in a highly vaccinated population, guess what is true of the people that get sick? Consider the limit case, a 100% vaccinated population. If you have an outbreak, everyone that gets sick will have been vaccinated.

This is using a clever (and true) thought experiment to warp actual reality. We are nowhere close to being 100% vaccinated, and so 3/4 is a horrible ratio for the vaccine.

Put another way, if 3/4 of the population was vaccinated, vaccinated people representing 3/4 of the cases would mean that the vaccine has no impact on the cases.