The mutation that helps Delta spread • Hacker News Board

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#531

Post by kungito » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:08 AM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #421

betwixthewires wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're misdirecting and missing the point entirely. While I'm not quite anti mask like the parent comment, it is an important question to consider, it is always a trade off. What severity warrant what measures? If there's still covid like now in 10 years, will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire? Is this feasible? If not, then when do we stop? Will the people advocating it ever tell us to stop? If not,…

Exactly! I think we can all disagree about preferences and risk-tolerance and that's fine. Society is about learning to live with compromise. But what I don't like is how nobody will pre-commit ahead of time about what the acceptable tradeoffs are. What are the targets? How long do we expect restrictions to stay in place for? If we miss those targets, where do we go from there? Can we just all be clear about this up…

I'd say the policy makers are making political decisions because it's a political problem in their eyes. If more people are pro mask they are going to enforce masks. If people get scared they are increasing restri tions. If people get annoyed the loosen restrictions. All they are focused on are the next elections

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#532

Post by stopping » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:13 AM UTC

walterbell wrote: post #241

schmichael wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I already get vaccinated every 12 months for the flu, so that seems like a fine plan to me.

We have many years of data on flu vaccine safety. Should the flu vaccine be combined with newer vaccines which have numerically less safety data?

Sample size isn't the problem you think it is. The difference in statistical confidence between sample sizes of a hundred million (COVID vaccine doses) and a billion (flu vaccines) is basically zero.

Perhaps you could try to make a case that we need more time to evaluate the long-term effects of the vaccines. Historically speaking, we know that side effects for any vaccine are incredibly rare after more than a few months. mRNA vaccine technology has been researched for decades and there are no indicators that there are long-term complications resulting from their use. Other vaccine technologies show similar long-term safety.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#533

Post by dsign » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:14 AM UTC

Really interesting article. By the end, they admit that what makes Delta worse is the sum of the parts, and not just a single mutation in the spike protein.

This is a general property of biology: it's almost always the sum of the parts.

It reminds me the trajectory of computer sciences, where a lot of our (conventional) systems are carefully coordinated part orchestras. I.e., an engineer knows all the classes/functions/modules and how they interact. Compare with our recent multi-layer neural networks, where nobody can say what the coefficient at index [22, 2, 432, 91, 42] does exactly. I wonder if, similarly, bio-research will be able to move more towards automatic discovery of desirable systems.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#534

Post by 1123581321 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:21 AM UTC

taylorfinley wrote: post #506

dcolkitt wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Socializing is extremely high friction in a mask. Pre-mask, I'd make small talk with store clerks or waiters all the time. After masking, I can count on one hand the number of times that happened. You struggle to understand people's muffled words, they struggle to understand yours. Facial expressions, the most important component of non-verbal communication, are half-hidden. Conveying a smile, the universal way to ex…

If masking persists and it becomes a long-term norm, communication will evolve around the constraints. I'm reminded of a story of a Somali prisoner who was nearly suicidal in solitary confinement until a prisoner in another cell taught him something like morse code, eventually even reading him Anna Karenina, tap by tap.[0] Humans will overcome any constraints to communicate. 0: https://www.npr.org/2017/09/11/55005835…

Inspiring but must be considered alongside all the people who struggle in prison with isolation to the deterioration of their mental and physical health, plus those who are not imprisoned who nevertheless struggle due to speech impediments, deformities and other issues that impede face-to-face interaction. We greatly benefit from normalizing a certain ease of socialization.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#535

Post by midasuni » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:24 AM UTC

mynegation wrote: post #432

dcolkitt wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Covid death rate among vaccinated people is under 0.01%[1]. One hundred times worse than the current situation would make Covid not significantly worse than seasonal influenza for the vaccinated. Sure, one hundred times worse among those who refuse to vaccinate would be significantly worse. But if a significant proportion of the population voluntarily refuses to vaccinate, I see no reason why the rest of society…

I know it may all look like small potatoes, but this is HN and you are two orders of magnitude off. 0.01% is pretty close to annual death rate from flu in pre-COVID years [1] so the situation that "one hundred times worse than the current situation" will make it 100 hundred times worse (i.e. significantly worse) than seasonal influenza. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

IFR for flu is 0.1% [0] - catch it and you’ve got a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying. That’s far higher than the IFR for covid if you’ve been vaccinated.

If you’re in a country where everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, then it’s time to move on.

[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-seasona...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#536

Post by throw3849 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:24 AM UTC

dsign wrote: post #533

Really interesting article. By the end, they admit that what makes Delta worse is the sum of the parts, and not just a single mutation in the spike protein. This is a general property of biology: it's almost always the sum of the parts. It reminds me the trajectory of computer sciences, where a lot of our (conventional) systems are carefully coordinated part orchestras. I.e., an engineer knows all the classes/functio…

》I wonder if, similarly, bio-research will be able to move more towards automatic discovery of desirable systems.

Bio research already does that, SARS-CoV-2 was created this way. It uses natural selection over multiple generations to select desired behaviour, the same way as neural networks are created. This process is automated to large extend.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#537

Post by hutzlibu » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:27 AM UTC

sreque wrote: post #371

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure which spreadsheet you're talking about, the page I linked to has a series of feeds, and if you download today's CSV and sum all 4 case count columns it adds up to 650. 426 is the unvaccinated count. 650 is the count of all cases. Date covid19_cases_unvac covid19_cases_partial_vac covid19_cases_full_vac covid19_cases_vac_unknown 2021-08-20 426 64 103 57 BTW, it's not "my page"; it's the official gov't of Onta…

You're right. We both made an analytical mistake, although yours was much bigger. If that means I don't read, then you must not read well either. Congrats on devolving to personal insults about my character though. I guess that means you ran out of data-based arguments. If we adjust for my mistake and make 426 the denominator, the odds go up to 3.5%. If we take into account that at least half of cases go unreported,…

I think both of you would benefit from a less "engaged" discussion mode, more focused on the data.

Not which one of you is right or wrong, but rather what data and conclusions are right or wrong.

Because otherwise I benefited very much from your discussion. Thank you both.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#538

Post by kmonsen » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:49 AM UTC

s5300 wrote: post #467

tiahura wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever?” That’s the question our leaders seem to be terrified to answer. How long until Fauci admits that its not just going to go away?

Speaking of the US I think at this point, most of the vaccinated would no longer care if it weren't for the fact that procedures for things like cancer treatments and major surgeries are being outright canceled, for months, so that all resources can be spent treating all of the unvaxxed who are now scared enough about their "little cough" that they need to go to the doctor for it.

And kids under 12 not having access to vaccine. Once that is in place I personally think it’s time to go UK and figure out what this looks like long term.

I wonder if insurance companies will have different rates for people who choose to forgo essential vaccinations in the future.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#539

Post by kmonsen » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 7:51 AM UTC

Sunspark wrote: post #508

mdtancsa wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for what its worth, I had AZ as my first shot and it was pretty rough for 36 hours and then I was fine. My second shot of pfizer 8 weeks later barely left a sore spot on my arm. Not sure what if anything it means, but curious what will happen if I get a 3rd.

I had 2 shots of AZ but the same experience. Rough initial period, but the second one was fine. I don't plan to get a third one until they make an updated vaccine for the newer variants like delta. What's the point if it's the old vaccine?

Data from Israel shows that a third pfeizer dose is highly effective against delta.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#540

Post by JohnJamesRambo » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 8:01 AM UTC

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Not only that, but I’m afraid this is the endgame new normal for a densely populated world. How do we avoid continuous new disease pandemics when we are tightly packed in like sardines?

As part Native American, I am reminded of what happened when Europeans from a densely populated area came here. Estimates vary but maybe 90% died from the “new” diseases to them. The fact that Europeans weren’t decimated by native diseases makes me think that one of the prerequisites for societies free of disease is lots of empty space between people and limited travel. This will continually decrease with time in the anthropocene.