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Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

duedilly.io

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Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#51

Post by Galanwe »

bhelkey wrote: post #26

Neat idea! A couple of nits: Looking at the recommended page duedilly.io/asset/ZOM "Posts that are not bold have been removed/deleted on Reddit" -> "Posts that are bold have been removed/deleted on Reddit" DD is not defined (one would have to go to the main page) and it is not a well known acronym.

> DD is not defined (one would have to go to the main page) and it is not a well known acronym.

Worst, in the industry its often an acronym for "drawdown". I was quite confused until I saw the definition DD=due diligence on the homepage.

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#52

Post by duedillyio »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #4

Fun tool. Thanks for putting it together. It's interesting to crawl through some of the entries from leaderboard people. It seems like most of their bets are neutral or slightly random, but then they'll be propped up with a lucky call on GME from January or some other single-stock pick. For example, this poster apparently just spammed GME posts during the run-up and got lucky, but if you followed their other calls (R…

Thanks! I know exactly what you mean. I've experimented with using medians instead of means for aggregating performance as well to lessen the impact of that sort of thing.

Currently, it's pretty difficult to crack the top without something like that. At the same time, I think (as another commenter pointed out) the distribution of returns for the way these traders pick stocks is pretty skewed/lottery-like. One hesitation I have about the median is that although it's more robust to outliers its less reflective of the true performance achieved.

Maybe putting some stocks in a "meme tier" and then excluding those might capture what your describing, thanks for the feedback!

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#54

Post by duedillyio »

challenger-derp wrote: post #45

Interesting social experiment that feels like it has the unethical potential to super-charge pump and dump schemes by lending credence to social media trading ideas and aggregating the information in one place. Inexperienced investors/traders browsing this website might get the impression that it's indeed profitable to be "part of the pump". Perhaps consider going further back in time, before GME. GME-like events hav…

Thanks! For sure, having more history helps put things in context.

There's several stocks you can see now where tons of people have bought after the top and lost a lot. Here's an example:

https://duedilly.io/asset/BABA/

I've noticed something similar with mentions being a poor leading indicator. Anyone can submit any reddit post to the site so hoping with exposure these older traders can submit those older posts as well, as it helps corroborate their track record.

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#55

Post by duedillyio »

Jorge1o1 wrote: post #7

This was really fun to browse! Consider adding a section for “worst traders” and “worst stocks” just for fun. For example, CLOV is a wsb matador.

Thanks! Yeah, I don't want to put anyone down with the worst traders page but worst stocks could be fun, especially if it's done as a way to bring people together around their losses and better inform themselves on what to look out for.

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#56

Post by namanyayg »

kqr wrote: post #44
cinntaile wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say that's how most people outperform, they get a lucky break with a stock that goes x10 or something.

I don't know who you include in "most people", but from what I understand of the professionals, that's not at all how making money works. If what you describe happens, it means the portfolio risk dial is set way too high. The mistaken idea behind that is that people think risk and reward covaries. It does for single wagers, but when assessing profitability of investments, we must look at long term growth. When we do…

Interesting analysis and I think I've reached similiar conclusions when talking to my friends and associates and seeing their results over the last ~5y; high risk leads to lot of capital loss often for them.

I usually have been playing low-risk investments and want to change that, any articles or advice to make independent high risk bets that actually end up lowering overall risk?

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#57

Post by duedillyio »

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #9

Does the r. in front of everyone's name stand for Robot? This is cool. If you follow /r/wsb, you know half the damn sub has the idea to create this site once a week. But you actually did it. Great work.

So this is a quick hack -- I have a user registration system but I didn't want people parking on reddit usernames. For any user that gets scraped from Reddit I add a "r." in front of their username. The '.' character is invalid in usernames that are user-created. If you sign in with Reddit, you can change the username to whatever.

Thanks! I'm unable to post it there unfortunately (or really anywhere on stocks subreddits) due to moderation rules around promoting webapps but I've seen a lot of those posts.

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#58

Post by duedillyio »

dogma1138 wrote: post #3

Whats the time scale you are looking at to estimate accuracy? It seems to be real/near real time which can skew things from what idea turned out to be right to what idea got the biggest amount of suckers to buy into a pump and dump scheme since the stonks/wsb subreddits now have enough members to push the needle especially on relatively low trade volume securities and stocks.

I consider 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year horizons and report all 3. For people pushing things around you expect to see it more on these short/medium term horizons.

example: https://duedilly.io/asset/SAVA/

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#59

Post by dmos62 »

somebodythere wrote: post #5

Cool website. Percentage is a good place to start, but if you want to get closer to the alpha of a given idea, dividing the percentage return by its beta to the benchmark, then subtracting the return of the benchmark over the same period will get you closer.

I find this formula unintuitive (for starters I had to google what alpha and beta was). Does it have a name so I can look it up?

Re: Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

#60

Post by duedillyio »

dimitry12 wrote: post #38

Looks very interesting! Do you classify DD as bullish or bearish using the body of the post or the title, just like the ticker? Awesome "About" section, it answered all my other questions.

So 99% of DDs are long and I didn't want to get sidetracked trying to build a guessing system since many Reddit posts delete their contents (the titles are not removable which helps me).

For that reason I auto-classify as bullish but there's a report page that anyone can click to report mis-classified posts.

Thank you!

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