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Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

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Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel people said the same thing about him for SpaceX and Tesla back when he was just the wacky PayPal guy. Remember SpaceX's first launch was in 2006 (before the iPhone existed!) and it's only started getting really serious traction in the past 5 years. Elon's no stranger to things that don't have any "useful form" for well over a decade. I'm quite certain he's aware of the realistic timelines, and he sells a diffe…

Hmmm one correction, SpaceX main driver is Gwynne and I doubt SpaceX would have been even close to what it is now if not for her. Musk is there more front face for the public. Tesla is his child, but so are many other (now obviously failed) projects.

Ah this old Musk-Hater mantra. The 'Gwynne' does everything trope.

Gwynne is an excellent manager and I don't want to say anything bad about her and SpaceX is lucky to have her but the idea that she is 'main driver' is just idiotic. It is counter to everything you read about SpaceX. It is counter to all the experience reports from people within or from outside of SpaceX.

Neither Gwynne nor any of the other original leaders, Mueller or Königsmann seem to agree with the assessment.

This trope seems to mostly come from an time where Tesla was not doing so well in 2017 and everybody that didn't like Elon was saying 'see Tesla is going to the shitter, he doesn't have Gwynne that is the reason SpaceX is successful'.

Tesla of course now is incredibly successful without having a Gwynne and that somehow is just lucky or something.

For a while people also used to say that JB was why Tesla was technically successful, he was the mastermind behind all the engineering at Tesla and without him would fail to innovate.

Gwynne could leave SpaceX tomorrow and SpaceX would continue to do very well. The head of HR for example has been with the company since Falcon 1 days and could take that job and do a good job as well. Elon could likely do much of it himself but it would talk away time he would much rather spend with the engineering team.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#372
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel people said the same thing about him for SpaceX and Tesla back when he was just the wacky PayPal guy. Remember SpaceX's first launch was in 2006 (before the iPhone existed!) and it's only started getting really serious traction in the past 5 years. Elon's no stranger to things that don't have any "useful form" for well over a decade. I'm quite certain he's aware of the realistic timelines, and he sells a diffe…

> as long as he expects the technology to exist at some point, the fact that he's parked a big chunk of cash in the idea gives him an advantage. It also let's you point to two (major) successes while dismissing the Boring Company, Nuerolink, SolarCity and the Hyperloop, among others that went nowhere. Not that his sucess rate is anything to be embarrassed by, but his announcement alone doesn't lead to me expecting an…

> SolarCity

SolarCity was not Musk lead company, he was just an investor. SolarCity was acquired and is part of Tesla and while they had to remove resources from Solar during the manufacturing difficulty and scaling difficulty the solar and home energy part of their business is still growing very well.

I think its fair to say that going into solar was not as successful as Tesla hoped, but neither is it a failure. In the last year the growth of the business line has been finally showing promising growth.

They are starting to work with more outside contractors and they have the cheapest solar product on the market.

> Nuerolink

The company still exists, they are working very hard on a very difficult problem. They are still adding people. They are working on something incredibly hard, has never been done before and will require a lengthy regulatory approval process.

They did not announce a timeline for a product that they failed to hit.

What exactly is your issue with the company?

> Boring Company

They are growing, have an engineering team working on the technology. Their commercial bids are very competitive. They have established test sights in California and Texas. They have made quite a few improvements already and in the publicly available data their commercial bids seem to be competitive.

Apparently its a failure because the first product they ever did didn't meet the your standards or something. The costumer of that product seems to be happy and wants to extend the project. But who cares about happy costumers, what matters if how much people on HN like it.

So how exactly is this a failure? I would be my ass that Boring Company valuation now is significantly higher then when it started. And I bet its already more successful then most startups.

If that is your definition of 'going nowhere' I wish my projects would turn into companies of that size.

> Hyperloop

Maybe go back and actually read what was said at the time. Musk literally said he wasn't gone work on it. So your critic is that project he never said he was gone do didn't get done?

That makes no sense. He literally said 'I posting this paper, maybe somebody wants to work on it, I have no time to do it'.

If these are considered 'failures' now I really have done nothing in my life. I mean I haven't even created a single 100M+ company yet. Seems to me the only one that actually didn't go anywhere is the one that he said he wasn't going to do.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#373

At what point are people going to realize Elon is peddling vaporware to keep afloat? What's next? cold fusion?

It's amazing, isn't it? Somehow the dancer in the robot unitard wasn't an "emperor has no clothes" moment, or more aptly a "Nikola pushing a truck down a hill" moment. That's on top of the news that the Cybertruck just got delayed. Again. We're approaching the two year mark of Tesla taking deposits for a product that they don't even have a final design for.

Man, you really lake a sense of humor. I was literally a joke. Comparing that to a scam is the dumbest thing I have read in these comments.

> That's on top of the news that the Cybertruck just got delayed.

A major industrial project got delayed by a few month. Instantly call the police.

And this was the first delay btw.

> We're approaching the two year mark of Tesla taking deposits for a product that they don't even have a final design for.

So what? The money is there, you can instantly have it back. It is quite common practice for many companies both in the car and in other industries.

I literally have books, games, computer hardware on order, some already paid for that will not arrive for a long time. I literally have a kickstarter comic book that is delayed 4 years and yet I don't want my money back.

This product will be production constraint for a while, if you want it early, you have to reserve your spot for 100$, that doesn't seem outrage in the least.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is not without problems. Poor drive quality. After spending 40K+ for the car, I was cited for not having front number plate. I had to figure out how to tape the frame, spend more time appearing in court. I prefer not doing such things than having automatic s/w update for fine tuning fart noise.

You're blaming Tesla because you didn't use the front license plate holder that they give you, ready to go?

why did they put it in the trunk when all other car dealers fix it and give ? And why do you see 80% of Tesla'a on the road without the front number plates ? Also if you put the number plate it may not reach their advertised 0-100 mile in 3.x seconds ?

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. That's why the cross-country autonomous drive that didn't happen in 2017 is imminent.

Exactly. People were saying it was impossible. He announced it to happen in 2018. It will happen 3-4 years later than planned. And people use that to bash him, forgetting the elephant in the room which is that he made the supposedly impossible possible.

OP was sarcastic.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#376
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as long as he expects the technology to exist at some point, the fact that he's parked a big chunk of cash in the idea gives him an advantage. It also let's you point to two (major) successes while dismissing the Boring Company, Nuerolink, SolarCity and the Hyperloop, among others that went nowhere. Not that his sucess rate is anything to be embarrassed by, but his announcement alone doesn't lead to me expecting an…

> SolarCity SolarCity was not Musk lead company, he was just an investor. SolarCity was acquired and is part of Tesla and while they had to remove resources from Solar during the manufacturing difficulty and scaling difficulty the solar and home energy part of their business is still growing very well. I think its fair to say that going into solar was not as successful as Tesla hoped, but neither is it a failure. In…

That's my point. You talked about companies that are 15, 5, and 5 years old as "not announcing a timeline they failed to hit" when I claimed they had produced nothing so far. Which, one, is a crazy standard to volunteer with Musk as he regularly fails to hit timelines he announces. But my point was he invests in things for years - decades - without any public progress but also without pulling out investment. The "heads I win, tails I flip again" is what I was commenting on. SolarCity (where, far from being uninvolved, Musk was Chairman of the Board) is older (in Elon involvement) than Tesla; if Tesla is a "success" how little would SolarCity have to do to be a "failure"?

How do you feel about Blue Origin, which Bezos regularly infused billions into before it finally got to its first flight?

The Hyperloop, is something Musk spent over a calendar year and numerous engineering assets working on before he decided to give up and open-source their work. If any of his projects was an unreserved failure, it was the hyperloop.

I don't get why you're so upset about this. I didn't say Musk was horrible. I just pointed out a lot of his projects tend to fail. I explicitly said that his success rate is good. I just also pointed out he has enough misfires that there's no reason to believe his announcements at this stage are going to see commercial availability.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? How many businesses practices are codified using anything other than human-like movement? To expect anything else is the outlier. Any human doing any job in physical labor without specialized design for non-human machinery/robotics is on notice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssZ_8cqfBlE I feel like a lot of factories are going to go in this direction. Lots of complex automation but ultimately very simple mechanisms with a strong framework to make sure nothing goes wrong.

What percentage of labor is factories? We're talking about all human physical labor.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're blaming Tesla because you didn't use the front license plate holder that they give you, ready to go?

why did they put it in the trunk when all other car dealers fix it and give ? And why do you see 80% of Tesla'a on the road without the front number plates ? Also if you put the number plate it may not reach their advertised 0-100 mile in 3.x seconds ?

Because a lot of people like to leave it off, especially on expensive cars, not exclusive to Tesla. It looks better and the chances of getting a ticket are actually pretty low. There are plenty of people who've driven around without a front plate for many years without getting cited, and it usually just a fix-it ticket without a big penalty. It's not generally because people are ignorant of the law. And it's not required everywhere either.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm one correction, SpaceX main driver is Gwynne and I doubt SpaceX would have been even close to what it is now if not for her. Musk is there more front face for the public. Tesla is his child, but so are many other (now obviously failed) projects.

> SpaceX main driver is Gwynne and I doubt SpaceX would have been even close to what it is now if not for her. Musk is there more front face for the public. A substantial portion of the Musk fanbase believe he's the one personally designing rockets and coding the software to land them.

I've never heard a single SpaceX fan suggest that Musk actually writes code any more. I think that is a bit of an exaggerated caricature. He knows how to do it, and he wrote a lot of code in the early days of Zip2, but since then, he has left the actual coding to others. (And, given he hasn't done it in anger in over 20 years, his software development skills are likely rather rusty. Plus, I’ve never heard any suggestions he has skills in avionics software development in particular.)

I think he does actively involve himself in engineering-level discussions and decision-making, both at SpaceX and Tesla. Most CEOs don't do that, but some do – Bill Gates did that a lot when CEO of Microsoft – so it is not unprecedented. Designing something as complex as a car or a launch vehicle (or an operating system or an office suite) is a team effort, it is never going to be all on a single individual, and senior people are inevitably going to delegate a lot of the detailed analysis and design work to their subordinates – but a senior executive who actively involves themselves in engineering decisions can have a real impact on the outcome, for better or worse. He isn't formally trained as an engineer, but he has a degree in physics, and he is obviously a reasonably intelligent and very dedicated guy who has had years of access to some very experienced engineers, so the idea that he has learnt enough aerospace/automotive engineering to actually make a useful contribution as an engineering decision-maker isn't unbelievable.

I'm a bit of a SpaceX fan myself, but I feel like there is a big disconnect between what the average SpaceX fan actually believes about SpaceX, and the caricatures that many SpaceX/Musk critics like to paint. (Of course, there may be the occasional SpaceX fan who takes it way too far, and for whom these caricatures actually become true, but I don't think the vast majority of us are actually like that.)

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. People were saying it was impossible. He announced it to happen in 2018. It will happen 3-4 years later than planned. And people use that to bash him, forgetting the elephant in the room which is that he made the supposedly impossible possible.

OP was sarcastic.

I know. I wasn’t clear enough I guess. I should have said « You said exactly the kind of ridiculous argument that haters repeat ». My answer was also sarcastic.
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