The mutation that helps Delta spread • Hacker News Board

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#161

Post by sfink » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:25 PM UTC

sreque wrote: post #99

hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

The main problem is that the U.S. federal government in particular has been pretending for a while that we can get to zero COVID, then blaming the unvaccinated when it doesn't happen. First, they said we need 50% vaccination to achieve, herd immunity. Then 60%. Then 70%. Then 80%. When things don't work out, they vilify and blame the unvaccinated. In reality, unvaccinated with natural immunity are likely more protect…

Your numbers are wrong (see other responses for why.)

The herd immunity figure (1) legitimately changed with the variants, and (2) is always going to be a shot in the dark so personally I don't find much point in paying attention to government figures anyway. Government is providing figures to achieve an outcome; it's fundamentally a policy tool. If you want the science, listen to scientists.

The delta variant is currently overwhelming a large number of hospitals, and it wouldn't have done so with higher vaccination rates. Whether or not you view that statement as vilifying unvaccinated people is beside the point.

If it is going to become endemic, and there are very good arguments that it will, then I agree that we'll need to move on. But "moving on" != "ignoring". Flushing the existing vaccines down the toilet and letting the cards fall as they may is not a winning strategy, yet that's exactly what 40% of the US population is presently choosing.

"Moving on" means treating it like chickenpox or at least the flu. Not like meteor strikes.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#162

Post by Florin_Andrei » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:25 PM UTC

johnbaker92 wrote: post #156

BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Lockdowns should have stopped covid. Maybe if people obeyed them, which they did not. > - Masks should have stopped covid. Maybe if people wore them, which they did not. > - Vaccines should have stopped covid. Maybe if people got them, which they did not. And now that there are new variants in the wild because of people not doing all of those things, the vaccines, lockdowns, and masks still keep ICU beds from ove…

Have we perhaps forgotten about Sweden which: - Did not force lockdown / masks onto anybody - Has one of the least vaccinated population in Europe (around 40% afaik) - Has had 0 covid deaths in the last couple weeks. - Has not had it worse than countries with stricter mandates. Are we also forgetting about Iceland / Israel which are among the most vaccinated countries in the world (on top of having stringent mandates…

> so called experts do not seem to have all the answers

You are drinking misinformation from the firehose. That quote is a clear symptom of it.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#163

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:27 PM UTC

volfied wrote: post #146

johnbaker92 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to "science": - Lockdowns should have stopped covid. - Masks should have stopped covid. - Vaccines should have stopped covid. - "Health" passports and those ridiculous mandates should have stopped covid. The fact is, we're two years down the road and we're still talking about this virus - so "true" science (that advocated by governments / media I imagine?) is obviously not working. Time to take a step back…

You're acting in bad faith and you know it. You can't just say "lockdowns/masks/vaccines should have stopped covid, but they didn't", when you know that a lot of people out there refused to mask up, refused to quarantine and refused to get the vaccine. People with your thinking are the reason we're still in this pandemic.

[deleted]

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#164

Post by grepfru_it » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:28 PM UTC

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #143

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Due to COVID not mutating as quickly, I think the end game is everyone getting immune, through a combination of repeated vaccinations and infections.

I got covid last march, and got it again one month ago. I was very sick for three weeks on my second covid infection. I think we are about to face the harsh reality that covid is never going away, and immunity and is never going to happen. The virus will mutate and find new ways to infect

What is your definition of very sick?

I too had a similar series of events and my second infection was both worse and better than the first. My first bout was longer but consisted of just a mild cough with a tolerable shortness of breath but 9 months of long haul hell. My second was rife with congestion, headaches, and muscle pains but it came and went in the span of a week, no long covid this time around (so far).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#165

Post by jdavis703 » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:28 PM UTC

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Yeah, as long as COVID-19 fills up hospitals we should do this. Not having hospitals seriously compromises quality of life.

I had untreated kidney stones for about a week at the peak of the pandemic. When I was in the middle of an attack I could not work, the pain was too severe. I was missing several hours of work everyday just dealing with pain.

I finally got to the emergency room which did basic imaging and gave me painkillers and muscle relaxers.

I didn’t get the actual stones removed until 6 months later!

So yes, I’d rather vaccinate and mask up then be denied healthcare.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#166

Post by nawitus » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:30 PM UTC

criticaltinker wrote: post #152

nradov wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same as with what probably happened with HCoV-OC43, another betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2. Evidence indicates that it caused a worldwide pandemic that killed a lot of people starting in 1889. Now it's endemic. Most of us catch it when we're young and healthy which gives us partial immunity later. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.111…

> Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing death Yes individuals who have been vaccinated or recovered from natural infection will have durable immunity and significantly lower risk of severe outcomes like hospitalization and death. [5][6] The real question: is mass vaccination effective at preventing the spread and increasing trasmission/virulence of variants of concern? A growing body of the scient…

Why use vaccines in a highly targeted way instead of giving it to everyone?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#167

Post by sfink » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:30 PM UTC

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #157

hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

> I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago You're mostly fine, but you should not get disconnected completely from the news. Vaccine efficacy seems to wane slowly (faster for old people). Probably before the 1 year mark you should get a booster shot. The Delta variant is skewing some of the initial estimates, for the worse. The odds that you will catch the virus but have no symptoms or repe…

I disagree.

Before Delta, it was reasonable to resume almost all activities after being fully vaccinated.

I don't believe that is true any longer. There are too many breakthrough cases, presumably driven by a much higher viral load that can overwhelm defenses. (The figures I have seen are 1000x in the upper respiratory tract of infected people; I haven't been following well enough to know what the increase is in actually expressed viruses. But it's going to be a lot, and viral load has proven to be a very significant factor for transmission.)

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#168

Post by walterbell » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:31 PM UTC

bhickey wrote: post #138

walterbell wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass distribution of non-sterilizing vaccines which reduce symptoms (via blood/serum antibodies) but don't prevent infection and transmission (lack of nasal/mucous antibodies) can increase spread of variants that would otherwise cause symptoms and self-isolation of the infected person.

This is not a credible concern. Vaccination reduces the infection rate. Among vaccinated individuals who suffer breakthrough infection the time at peak viral load is significantly reduced.

Could you recommend a good reference on the time interval for peak viral load in infected vaccinated people?

CDC recommends testing of vaccinated people, since they can be infected and the vaccine suppresses symptoms, so they won't know to self-isolate, https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210729/cdc-reverses-guidan... (July 29, 2021)

> Even if they’re not showing symptoms, fully vaccinated people should “get tested 3-5 days after exposure to someone with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 and wear a mask in public indoor settings for 14 days after exposure or until they receive a negative test result,” ... “Our updated guidance recommends vaccinated people get tested upon exposure regardless of symptoms,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, told The New York Times

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#169

Post by anonuser123456 » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:34 PM UTC

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

This outlook ignores a critical factor.

Intramuscular vaccine delivery did not confer high levels of mucosal immunity. However, subsequent infection of the vaccinated may provide excellent systemic protection while allowing mucosal immunity to naturally develop as a consequence of infection.

If high levels of mucosal immunity develop as a result of breakthrough infection, that may go a long way towards reducing r0.

Further, nasal delivery covid vaccines are underdevelopment. These may also provide mucosal immunity.

So there is still a very plausible way out of the pandemic that includes the near eradication of the disease.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#170

Post by wizzwizz4 » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 8:35 PM UTC

chinathrow wrote: post #98

achenatx wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely scenario is that it turns into cold/flu. Everyone either gets the vaccine or the virus and we are all mostly immune. It mutates a little and once it mutates just enough to spread substantially everyone who gets it gets immune. Only a fraction of the population will get any particular mutation. I remember having the debate that herd immunity has never happened without a vaccine. Which is just BS. Every dise…

> Every disease throughout history has eventually reached equilibrium with humans which is essentially herd immunity. Not a biologist here but can you elaborate on this? Do you consider all circulating diseases such as HIV, yellow fever, malaria, hepatitis etc. having reached "equilibrium"?

Well, humanity still exists, therefore no disease wiped out all humans. That's a form of equilibrium, and it's a lot better than some other species.

And now we have decent medicine, we can properly turn the tables on diseases. mRNA vaccines are literally sci-fi stuff, and now they're here! Antibiotics weren't even in sci-fi, and we've got them (though they're no longer panaceas).