The mutation that helps Delta spread • Hacker News Board

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#91

Post by Steltek » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:34 PM UTC

Covzire wrote: post #69

hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

For most people I know, other than mask requirements when going out certain places and the constant fear mongering on TV, COVID-19 is completely over and their lives are back to normal, complete with in person graduation parties this summer, going to ball games, family gatherings like it doesn't exist, etc. Other than both my parents last year (who recovered, didn't need hospitalization but were very ill for 2 weeks)…

For a balanced perspective and as a parent of ineligible children about to enter a new school year, Covid is far from over! We have no idea how long our school will be open or if we'll need to split attention between work and quarantined children at home. Similar to the evaporation of empathy for unvaxxed people who are admitted to the hospital, I'm concerned about a similar fatigue of tolerating working parents who are still partying like it's 2020, except we have no choice in the matter.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#92

Post by jryb » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:34 PM UTC

walterbell wrote: post #27

erokar wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delta-infected patients seem to be 1.8 times more likely to be hospitalised, compared to Alpha-infected patients [1]. Since the covid virus takes two weeks plus to kill its host and also spreads while the host is asymptomatic, there really isn't much selective pressure to make it less deadly. So far infectiousness and severity of disease has gone hand in hand with this virus. 1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article…

> Early data from Scotland indicated that delta-infected Covid patients were 1.8 times more likely to be hospitalized than those with an alpha infection. Other U.K. data support the increased risk of hospitalization but do not provide clear evidence that delta patients experience more severe illness once in the hospital. How do hospitals identify individual patients infected by Alpha, Delta or other variant? Do they…

Last I checked the US was sequencing about 1% of patients. In the Houston Methodist hospital system, they sequenced the viral genomes of 56% of patients, which they estimate is about 4% of Covid cases in the Houston metropolitan area: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000294402...

Of course, there is a sampling bias there for variants that result in hospitalizations.

Variant-specific proportions can be found here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?ACSTrackingID=USCD...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#93

Post by baxtr » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:34 PM UTC

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Why indefinitely? If that was the case we would need shots for the other cold viruses as well, which we don't. As you say, Sars-2 will turn into an endemic virus and thus we will get used to it over time, death rates will drop and it will turn into a cold. There is absolutely no historic precedent to think it will turn out differently.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#94

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:35 PM UTC

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Due to COVID not mutating as quickly, I think the end game is everyone getting immune, through a combination of repeated vaccinations and infections.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#95

Post by johnbaker92 » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:35 PM UTC

aantix wrote: post #76

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Take Vitamin D/C/Zinc/Niacin and build up natural immunity?

It's sad that this comment (and probably mine) downvoted despite being a reasonable long-term response to this virus.

Instead of mandating this vaccine worldwide, why don't we focus on collectively building a better / stronger health that would prevent the large majority of severe cases?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#96

Post by sreque » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:36 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #77

hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

So here in Ontario where we're @ about 65% of the population totally vaccinated, today's new cases. Source: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ont... 10.25/100k among people who are unvaccinated. 6.5/100k among people who are partially vaccinated. 1.0/100k among people who are fully vaccinated. For hospitalization: 2.04/100k for unvaccinated, 1.11/100k for partially, 0.21/100k for vaccinated. Fo…

That should be a clue that something is wrong with your numbers. 10% of unvaccinated people getting COVID are absolutely not ending up in the ICU. It's not even remotely close.

Also, as good as the vaccines are against delta, natural immunity is doing even better: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-makary-says-natu...

https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/20/22584134/whats...

https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#97

Post by Retric » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:36 PM UTC

tunesmith wrote: post #84

Retric wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Herd immunity happens long before we are all infected. Less than 40% of the US population is completely unvaccinated, which means we can open up more without overwhelming hospitals. That does put the unvaccinated at increased risks, but the general public is seemingly unwilling to continue lockdowns to protect people choosing not to be vaccinated. If ~85% is needed for herd immunity then we could be rapidly approachi…

There's math you can do to roughly judge impact of partial vaccination. If R0 is six, and you're looking at hospitalization, estimate vaccine efficacy for Delta at around 90% (I've seen estimates above and below that). Taking your estimate of a 60% vaccination rate: 6 * (1 - (.6 * .9)) = 2.76 2.76 is the effective Rt, which is far above 1, so no, that is not enough to open up more without eventually overwhelming hosp…

2.76 assumes normal conditions, social distancing literally changes the equation.

Mask use for example pushes that down. It’s easier to get below 1 with a 50% vaccination rate than a 0% rate. Meaning we can open up more without overwhelming hospitals.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#98

Post by chinathrow » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:36 PM UTC

achenatx wrote: post #54

cjfd wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the worst-case and the best-case scenario are on the table. Only time will tell what happens. As you seem to be focusing on the worst-case scenario I will talk about the best-case scenario. The best-case scenario is that the human immune system is getting used to corona with even vaccinated people spreading the delta variant with little chance of getting very ill. This will turn covid-19 into something like the…

The likely scenario is that it turns into cold/flu. Everyone either gets the vaccine or the virus and we are all mostly immune. It mutates a little and once it mutates just enough to spread substantially everyone who gets it gets immune. Only a fraction of the population will get any particular mutation. I remember having the debate that herd immunity has never happened without a vaccine. Which is just BS. Every dise…

> Every disease throughout history has eventually reached equilibrium with humans which is essentially herd immunity.

Not a biologist here but can you elaborate on this? Do you consider all circulating diseases such as HIV, yellow fever, malaria, hepatitis etc. having reached "equilibrium"?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#99

Post by sreque » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:36 PM UTC

hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

The main problem is that the U.S. federal government in particular has been pretending for a while that we can get to zero COVID, then blaming the unvaccinated when it doesn't happen. First, they said we need 50% vaccination to achieve, herd immunity. Then 60%. Then 70%. Then 80%. When things don't work out, they vilify and blame the unvaccinated.

In reality, unvaccinated with natural immunity are likely more protected against the virus than the vaccinated. Israel's vaccination rates are among the highest in the world, and they've suffered the same delta outbreak as everyone else. Further, Israel has the most accurate and comprehensive data to date, and their numbers clearly show the naturally-immunized outperforming the vaccinated during their delta wave. They've since resorted to giving 3rd booster shots to the most vulnerable to compensate.

https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p...

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/israel-delivers-boos...

The real issue is that COVID is likely going to become endemic, and at some point the world needs to face this and move on. Unfortunately, our politicians have been lying to us and using COVID as a tool to gain political power for so long, that they are unwilling to admit they were wrong and to steer us in the right direction. The best we can do is elect these people out.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#100

Post by raphlinus » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 7:37 PM UTC

desine wrote: post #58

OneLeggedCat wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> existing vaccines stimulate the production of antibodies against only one of them Is this true for the J&J vax as well?

Yes the J&J shot still works using only the spike protein. IIRC only Novavax uses traditional inoculation of using the weakened SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Novavax is a protein subunit vaccine, with the spike protein only. The Chinese CoronaVac and Indian Covaxin are traditional inactivated virus vaccines.