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Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

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Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#51

I keep hearing about a housing shortage. How we are not building fast enough. I personally know several people that own more than one home and AirBnB it when not in use. Also hedge funds are now targeting real estate. I can't help but wonder if this is partially an AirBnB and hedge fund created situation. Of course these are the same people that have access to all this free money. The average Joe still has to pay int…

Interest rates are historically low. I'd imagine hedge funds are paying interest too. You'd never want to tie up all that capital to avoid a 2% interest rate.

Even I, an average Joe, pay the minimum payment on my mortgage and invest the rest. It would be foolish to pay it off early.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#52

They cite the numbers in "real terms", which would mean inflation adjusted: > The average price of American homes, in real terms, is now the highest it's ever been Of course, you really need to be looking at mortgage rates to understand housing affordability: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html July 2021 average 30-year mortgage rate: 2.87% (with 0.7 points) 2008 12-month average 30-year mortgage rate: 6.03% (…

Agreed - I personally just refined to %2 at 15 years. Never could afford to that until now.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#53
post #2

Name something that costs less in 2021 than in the 2000s?

Almost everything. Important exceptions are housing, health care and education, which have large impacts on COL. But most else is cheaper.

Incidentally also the three areas where the government is most directly pouring money into, via FHA/USDA loans, Medicare/Meidcade, and Pell Grants and Loans respectively.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#54

They cite the numbers in "real terms", which would mean inflation adjusted: > The average price of American homes, in real terms, is now the highest it's ever been Of course, you really need to be looking at mortgage rates to understand housing affordability: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html July 2021 average 30-year mortgage rate: 2.87% (with 0.7 points) 2008 12-month average 30-year mortgage rate: 6.03% (…

I think the article is referring to 2007/2008 as peak of the 2000s housing bubble. Not 2000’s housing bubble.

Thanks! Great point, thanks for catching my mistake. I updated my post

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#56

Awesome. I've been trying to buy a home since 2015 or so and noting that housing prices continue to rise, without fail, regardless of economic or political climate. Economy is doing well? Price increase! Economy is doing terribly because of global pandemic? Price increase! I have been patiently waiting for the next "bubble" to pop, even as my realtor insists that oh no, we're not really in a bubble, this is just the…

Price can't rise literally forever, no, but there really isn't much evidence that we're in a bubble right now. There isn't any reason price need to drop either.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#57
post #25
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything related to storage or compute? I couldn’t image having a 2tb drive 20 years ago, but having a 2tb ssd in my laptop is kind of amazing

compute? GPUs used to basically top out at $400, now the cheap ones go for more than that.

And how many orders of magnitude more performant are GPUs today? Houses don’t fundamentally change level of luxury (or whatever other apples to oranges comparison you want to draw) every few years.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#58
post #3

So is this finally the inflation that we were promised for so long? I guess all that money created during covid had to go somewhere. Too bad it's not going into education or healthcare...

No, this is just the Chinese billionaires trying to hide their money before Xi Jinping takes it all. https://techcentral.co.za/xi-targets-chinas-richest/110293/

Use yes-and rather than no, for better results. Reminding myself as well.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes,_and...

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#59

Awesome. I've been trying to buy a home since 2015 or so and noting that housing prices continue to rise, without fail, regardless of economic or political climate. Economy is doing well? Price increase! Economy is doing terribly because of global pandemic? Price increase! I have been patiently waiting for the next "bubble" to pop, even as my realtor insists that oh no, we're not really in a bubble, this is just the…

> Economy is doing well? Price increase! Economy is doing terribly because of global pandemic? Price increase!

The reason for price increasing is always supply curve of the house you might want is not keeping up with demand curve of people with more money who want that house.

There are lots of places in the US with house prices that are stagnant or increasing much slowly than elsewhere. But that is because there is lower demand.

Re: Home Prices Are Now Higher Than the Peak of the 2000s Housing Bubble

#60
The article is a summary of a new research paper that covers real estate prices over roughly twenty years up to the start of the pandemic.

The argument is that booms and busts tend to be caused by a real change in fundamentals that people then become too optimistic about.

For example: people knew "super-star cities" (SF, Seattle, etc) were going to attract more capital and jobs than other cities, so in the 2000s they piled into investments in these areas. However, they were so optimistic that they overshot, causing a bubble that ended in 2012.

That they overshot, however, does not mean that there were not real fundamental changes that made these cities valuable. So these super-star cities, even though they had a real-estate crash, did really well because the fundamentals kept being in their favor from 2012-2020. Places like Vegas did not do as well because the fundamentals are not as favorable there (fewer high-paying jobs, more space to build).

The question now is whether we are seeing a real estate mania in response to the idea of working from home. Prices in the suburbs have shot way up. Are people over-estimating this change? Perhaps, and if they are, it means that the suburbs could face more of a bubble popping than the city. But it may also mean that if WFH becomes a long-term trend, that even if prices collapse more in the suburbs (after having shot up in a frenzy), that we may still see a permanent shift in equilibrium between being in the city and in the suburbs.

So, if you believe WFH will be a long term, real fundamental shift, you may want to buy up some suburban places when, and if, a bubble pops in those markets.

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