Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

611–620 of 720 posts

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#611

Post by quadcore »

fsloth wrote: post #468
quadcore wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On that matter, I think (just a not-so-well-informed opinion but still plausible) most countries should urgently protect their software development industry and dramatically reduce taxes on those companies. Because the day US/China automated-production AIs will get to its prime, nothing produced in your county will have any value whatsoever beside land. Ferrari and Rayban? Near-zero market value tomorrow.

"Because the day US/China automated-production AIs will get to its prime" I think this time is quite a bit far off. But eventually will have sourcing price of just the raw materials. That said and regarding your next point - "Ferrari and Rayban? Near-zero market value tomorrow." On this I disagree strongly. Current trend is that IP becomes constantly more important. So that while manufacturing costs for said items ma…

That's interesting thanks. I guess there is a limit to the price of IP. Say if the glasses cost $0.50, can you sell that $400 really?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#612

Post by 1270018080 »

neither_color wrote: post #576
blueblisters wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Building it is one thing. Making it operational without importing talent and running it profitably is another. Taiwan has some of the best fab engineers who work at US minimum wage salaries. Of course you can pull them away with higher pay like China is doing, but that means profitability will likely go for a toss.

We pay junior engineers who work at social media companies six figures so why cant we pay taiwanese fab engineers enough?

We do pay them "enough." They do the job for that price. Why are they not payed more? Consumers care more about price, and capitalism cares more about the bottom line, than the ethical treatment of workers.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#613

Post by s1artibartfast »

throwawaygh wrote: post #569
s1artibartfast wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It was suggesting that we very temporarily give special treatment to a very small consumer of chips that has an outsized impact on production rate, in the midst of a global chip shortage. Why would we do that if the fabs themselves don't think it is worth paying their equipment manufacturers enough to afford their own chips? Giving "special treatment" is a price control. It is forcing a transaction that otherwise wo…

> Why would we do that if the fabs themselves don't think it is worth paying their equipment manufacturers enough to afford their own chips? Because there is a global chip shortage that is making life substantially worse for the vast majority of Americans. And because markets are tools used by man, not the other way around.

>Because there is a global chip shortage that is making life substantially worse for the vast majority of Americans.

Is it really? I don't know anyone who has had substantial impacts. Some prices have gone up, but I don't see the urgency.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#614

Post by gruez »

nostrademons wrote: post #562
twobitshifter wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source for the best Taiwan engineers working for minimum wage?

Monthly salary for a TSMC fab engineer is about NTD$48,000/month [1]; I saw another source on the web that listed NTD$612K/year, which is consistent. The exchange rate is 1 USD ~= 28 NTD, so that about USD$1700/month or about USD$10.50/hour, which is pretty close to what McDonald's pays these days. Prices in many foreign countries are wonky though, because of different cultural & economic systems. You can have a good…

> Prices in many foreign countries are wonky though, because of different cultural & economic systems.

You should just adjust for PPP. The world bank estimates taiwan's GDP (nominal) to be 759M, but adjusted for PPP it's 1,403B. If we do the same adjustment for wages, we get $3165 per month, or $18.19/hr.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#615

Post by jollybean »

mywittyname wrote: post #418
sonthonax wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that still true now?

Yes. One scary fact that I learned is that, in war games between China and the USA, China almost always wins due to superior production capacity. Those $100B American battle carriers and $40MM advanced fighter jets can be taken out by $50,000 rockets/missiles produced at a rate of hundreds or thousands per day.

It's definitely not true today in 2010 because auto plants in 2021 cannot be 're-tooled' to make tanks.

Also, US China conflict depends on entirely 'where' and 'over what' and what each nation is holding up it's sleeve.

China does not have $50K rockets that it can use to down 'reasonably stealthy fighters' and as we have seen before, tactics combined with good tech gives overwhelming odds. For example, if (big 'if' but entirely plausible) the US can maintain air superiority in a particular region ... then it will basically maul whatever is before it. As just one example.

China is building 100 subs that are a pretty big threat to any navy ... but we also don't know about advanced US tech that may render them completely moot.

If there is no huge leverage by one side, it happens on land, and over a long time ... the then 'home team' will win.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#616

Post by the-dude »

jtbayly wrote: post #59
riggins wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/18/opinion/infla... "In July, some of these sectors (used cars in particular) experienced a big deceleration in inflation, bolstering the argument" https://news.yahoo.com/us-used-car-bubble-burst-141009925.ht... "The price index for used vehicles rose 0.2% in July, after having risen at least 7.3% in each of the previous three months. The category was one of the few, along…

Used cars have a natural price cap, and my understanding is that it has been reached. They are too close to the price of a new car to go any higher.

If you can get a new car. In theory, a used, available car could be worth more than an unobtainium.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#617

Post by jollybean »

mathattack wrote: post #297
throwawaygh wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

"Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system."

"We don’t want the government to pick winners and losers when it doesn’t need to. "

Markets are not even remotely close to as efficient as you're implying.

In a clinch, people are making all sorts of crazy guesses at what the future will bring, making everything very inefficient. Remember that efficient markets depend on rational acting based on good information. We often don't have very good information at the unit level, and, we often act irrationally.

Some company flush with cash, decides to buy things at crazy high prices thereby denying the 'critical sources' (those that support production) access.

Right now there is a lot of parts hoarding - speculators buying up parts to sell them at higher prices. They're adding no net value to the system and causing all sorts of other problems.

The clearing of those prices may happen over time, but not without terrible damage being done.

Supply chains are not like stock markets with clear prices and instant transactions.

You may not need the government stepping in, but you definitely want non-market actions. For example, chip makers may want to work with their supply chains to ensure a kind of absolutism or preferential customer tranches.

FYI this already happens, all the time. Price is not King for parts, like it is on the stock market. Vendors of 'everything' are aware of the long term growth of their business, and will generally want to work with consistent buyers.

So in this FUBAR panic, supply chains have to think not about one thing, about many.

I believe that root causes was already a fait-accompli at the start of the pandemic when a bunch of parts of the supply chain shut down - we're still paying the price of trying to get things going.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#618

Post by rootsudo »

dheera wrote: post #473
jvanderbot wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Cost isn't the issue, it's that we have incompetent buffoons as presidents these days. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuW4oGKzVKc That's what a president sounds like.

Well, to be frank, there's precedent for why presidents won't be like Kennedy.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#619

Post by robocat »

blueblisters wrote: post #513
jvanderbot wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Building it is one thing. Making it operational without importing talent and running it profitably is another. Taiwan has some of the best fab engineers who work at US minimum wage salaries. Of course you can pull them away with higher pay like China is doing, but that means profitability will likely go for a toss.

Surely that depends on the staffing costs versus the overall costs (interest/financing cost I would be the largest cost?).

If staffing costs are 5% of of marginal costs, then making them 10% is fine if your residual income/profit is high enough.

I suspect you put a fab in Asia because you get higher profitability, not necessarily because you wouldn’t make a profit at all in the US.

Can anyone comment on what percentage of costs for say TSMC go on staffing?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#620

Post by infamouscow »

imaginariet wrote: post #141
patentatt wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

In UK, where NHS is publicly owned, it was actually policy to have 90% occupancy of ICU beds. If it was less than that, the "extra" beds would be removed.

From a public health standpoint it makes more sense to have two hospitals with 100 beds at 90% capacity than one hospital with 300 beds at 60% capacity. It's leads to better patient outcomes to have the hospital staff work overtime compared to rapidly hiring and training new staff whilst the hospital is being overrun.
Post reply on HN