This is a false-positive rate of 2 in 2 trillion image pairs (1,431,168^2). Assuming the NCMEC database has more than 20,000 images, this represents a slightly higher rate than Apple had previously reported. But, assuming there are less than a million images in the dataset, it's probably in the right ballpark.
If the author was comparing 2 trillion pictures of people, or children specifically, I think this false-positive rate would be different and arguably much higher. The reasons are obvious: humans are similar in dimensions to eachother and are much more likely to match in the same way the hatchet and nematode matched.I do not presume such a finding of photos is easy to come by but I wish the author put details on the sample set.