Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#501

Post by cronix » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:05 PM UTC

duncanawoods wrote: post #322

mathattack wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

It's a puzzle to me why companies like nvidia didn't just raise prices and instead left both customers and profit to the dirty world of scalpers. I guess it's "brand damage" but I feel there would be something more fair and honest if in times of tight supply they ran their own ebay-like store and auctioned them off. It wouldn't feel like a price hike and prices could automatically settle as supply/demand reaches pari…

Some, like this MSI subsidary, were actually selling on ebay at scalper prices.

> MSI has admitted that one of its subsidiaries has been selling RTX 3080 graphics cards on eBay at almost double the MSRP.

> The controversy first appeared on Reddit, where users accused MSI of scalping its own RTX 3080 graphics cards on eBay under the name Starlit Partner. Since, it’s been confirmed in a Justia Trademarks listing that Starlit Partner operates under MSI Computer Corp and was first set up in 2016.

https://www.techradar.com/uk/news/msi-subsidiary-gets-caught...

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#502

Post by razius » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:05 PM UTC

nsizx wrote: post #165

sandworm101 wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> whereas nearly everyone wants car prices to go back to normal. There is a significant voice that would like to price cars out of private ownership. Traffic, pollution, safety, urban sprawl ... pick your evil and someone wants to eliminate private cars for that reason. I regularly read about how the next wave of cars will all be somehow "shared", that we will whistle and they will appear at our doorsteps ready to c…

That's like 0.1% of people

The 0.1% that matter.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#503

Post by cma » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:06 PM UTC

jvanderbot wrote: post #484

dave_sullivan wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab. Talk to Intel and ask them why we've fallen behind. Do any VCs want to fund a direct Intel competitor? I doubt it. Making chips seems to be quite a bit more complicated than making and launching rockets, I don't think even Elon Musk could do it.

Just subsidize it. I'm not asking for the Fab Czar, I'm asking for the NSF, DARPA, and national subsidies for it. Accelerated permitting, tax breaks, tarif support, state vs national investments, accelerated green cards for key personnel, and price breaks for a "buy US Chips" initiative for the first 5 years until things get serious and exports ramp up. I'm spitballing over morning coffee, but come on, this seems obv…

EUV LLC was already heavily funded by DARPA in the 90s and is why we are able to have export restrictions on ASML machines used by TSMC for the latest EUV nodes etc.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#504

Post by SavantIdiot » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:06 PM UTC

jvanderbot wrote: post #417

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Part of the reason fabs are spread out is capitalism: if you manufacture the part in the country, you don't pay import taxes (e.g., Intel's Ireland fab debacle).

Another part is lax environmental laws. Hillsboro Oregon is embroiled in a suit with Intel where Intel dumped 100x the fluorine into the air that they claimed when D1X was first pitched. Don't need to worry about that stuff in Asia (for now).

Also, lead time. The x-ray litho machines take years to build and test. There are only two companies that make Intel's testers, and the lead time is years. So a "quick fix" isn't possible.

Speaking opinion: in the long term, it is mostly rich people trying to get richer that caused this. If greedy CEOs and shareholders would just be humans for once and think about the future we wouldn't have this trainwreck. That ain't ever gonna happen.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#505

Post by namelessoracle » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:06 PM UTC

nickff wrote: post #410

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

Highly visible industries tend to get a disproportionate number of subsidies, because the population can relate to them, and politicians aren't that clever either. Film and television are good examples, and fishing tends to get a lot of attention too.

Pretty much everyone understands that computer chips are needed for everything these days though.

The population can relate just fine. It's just there's no one rich and powerful who wants to make the investment that is making it an issue.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#506

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

throwawaygh wrote: post #374

mathattack wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

1. Your comment doesn't even provide a prime facie argument against some forms of government intervention. E.g., we could let the market determine prices but mandate that fab equipment suppliers go to the front of the line. 2. Price is probably a red herring anyways. I'm willing to bet that fab equipment suppliers are losing out not on price negotiations, but on volume negotiations. I.e., they might even be willing t…

>It was suggesting that we very temporarily give special treatment to a very small consumer of chips that has an outsized impact on production rate, in the midst of a global chip shortage.

Why would we do that if the fabs themselves don't think it is worth paying their equipment manufacturers enough to afford their own chips?

Giving "special treatment" is a price control. It is forcing a transaction that otherwise wouldn't settle at that price.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#507

Post by Spooky23 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

dd36 wrote: post #21

Veliladon wrote: post #7

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

Wall St in general and Jack Welch in particular embraced the “avoid owning anything” at any cost model to juice the books.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#508

Post by mediaman » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:08 PM UTC

dfxm12 wrote: post #327

eplanit wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What experiences with which government would lead you to believe that bureaucrats -- most of whom have never run a company nor made a product -- would be capable of "managing the market"?

I'm not sure experience running a company is necessarily a good thing here, or at the very least, not pertinent. Wall St.'s and the American people's interests are not necessarily in line. The US' previous president ran some companies and did not really do a good job in this regard, either, wrt his trade wars.

Seriously? You're using Donald Trump, who specialized in brand licensing and being a television character, as an equivalency to all the manufacturing engineers and supply chain specialists working to resolve the problems created by a global pandemic that's killed millions of people?

The amount of disrespect to highly skilled professionals in this thread working like crazy to respond to a massive exogenous shock, and then following it up with the idea that "well, the government should fix it" with no specific idea of how exactly, the government would fix it, is mind-bending.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#509

Post by bumby » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:11 PM UTC

sonthonax wrote: post #393

shadowgovt wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every country props up its auto industry, so why worry about a domestic supply? War. In the event a war breaks out, a running auto plant can be re-tooled relatively rapidly into a light and heavy armor plant. It's not even a question of whether allies could supply tanks and troop transports; it's about having domestic capacity to make them because enemies could execute blockades and disrupt allied resource supply.

Is that still true now?

Yes, I remember an article on HN a while back that referenced a DoD report stating a dwindling manufacturing base as a major national security risk. Related, they track a “manufacturing readiness” metric

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#510

Post by dylan604 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 5:13 PM UTC

zsmi wrote: post #496

dylan604 wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many tomahawks does it take to destory these factories?

Probably not too many. But I wonder, are there more Chinese factories or Tomahawk missiles? I'm not totally sure. China is a very large country.

I'm sure the manufacture of tomahawks is pretty much on stand-by for the order to increase production. Civic pride and what not. Totally has nothing to do with the stock price.