Live data from Hacker News

Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

481–490 of 720 posts

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every country props up its auto industry, so why worry about a domestic supply? War. In the event a war breaks out, a running auto plant can be re-tooled relatively rapidly into a light and heavy armor plant. It's not even a question of whether allies could supply tanks and troop transports; it's about having domestic capacity to make them because enemies could execute blockades and disrupt allied resource supply.

this. If you look at all the strategic industry subsidies, you will see this common denominator. Corn in the US is stupidly subsidized, so much corn that it ends up in car tanks. But guess who will not have a famine even if the worst war + disasters strike? Car factories might not make good tanks, but the mechanical engineers and tooling knowledge is invaluable and can't be scaled up overnight. Same with solar panels…

> PV panels are the future of energy, so you need to have domestic factories no matter the cost.

Another benefit of domestic factories is domestic innovation. It's much harder for an engineer coming out of university and going through their career working at an office computer terminal to ever make a breakthrough innovation, if they can't step inside the factory to see how things are really done.

If that factory is down the street, it's much easier to do an apprenticeship, get a tour, or chat with the manager about their pain points. If it's in another country, you'll have to schedule a formal visit and you'll probably need to be a very important customer for that to happen.

Grad students coming out of a research lab would tend to focus on getting an extra 0.2% cell efficiency, but it's more likely that the innovation that makes PV competitive is something like reducing the scrap rate, or figuring out how to run cells through the QC machines more quickly.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab. Talk to Intel and ask them why we've fallen behind. Do any VCs want to fund a direct Intel competitor? I doubt it. Making chips seems to be quite a bit more complicated than making and launching rockets, I don't think even Elon Musk could do it.

>Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab.

Tbf, many (most?) government websites are built and maintained by private companies. Remember the ACA website debacle a few years back? The government was mad at the contractor for building a shoddy product. They claimed they would take action against them but I’m not sure anything happened. If the government should be held to task on anything it should be an inability to write good contracts or hold companies feet to the fire. I’ve heard civil servants are unwilling to to the latter because they don’t want to hurt businesses or are afraid of legal protests.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#483
> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plans to build new factories in the US and Japan

I can't help but think that this massive shortage is setting up and equal an opposite reaction 2-3 years down the road: a glut as all this new capacity comes online. Especially given that because companies are now scrambling for chips, they're likely to over-order to ensure future supply.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab. Talk to Intel and ask them why we've fallen behind. Do any VCs want to fund a direct Intel competitor? I doubt it. Making chips seems to be quite a bit more complicated than making and launching rockets, I don't think even Elon Musk could do it.

Just subsidize it. I'm not asking for the Fab Czar, I'm asking for the NSF, DARPA, and national subsidies for it. Accelerated permitting, tax breaks, tarif support, state vs national investments, accelerated green cards for key personnel, and price breaks for a "buy US Chips" initiative for the first 5 years until things get serious and exports ramp up. I'm spitballing over morning coffee, but come on, this seems obvious.

Exports won't offset operating costs here in the USA, but perhaps we could apply some ingenuity to that through national research investments and the ensuing startup ecology. The ancillary benefits of funding research and small business infrastructure around the big fabs would be huge.

Sandia national labs has a ~3.5 annual Giga$ budget! That's _entirely_ publicly funded and represents about half of TSMC's operating budget (https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file... , looking at 50% profit yielding ~12 G$)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#485
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price increases already happened in the US for used cars. This will only continue the premium for used cars.

Why is it not affecting new car pricing as dramatically? And why would that continue? Used car prices cannot surpass new car prices surely, so at some point new car prices will be raised because of the low supply and high demand, or new car orders won't be fulfilled for months later

Used cars have surpassed new car prices in the past. Generally because new cars can't actually be bought at any price. A car today is sometimes worth more than a better car that doesn't exit.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My 1965 Volvo Amazon did 300 k miles before I scrapped it, in 1984, in favour of a 1976 Volvo 245. I only scrapped it because it wasn't worth anything, it was in perfect working order. The floor of 245 finally succumbed to Norwegian road salt in 1996 after 250 k miles but was otherwise in perfect order. I don't remember how far my 1965 Austin Mini van had done by the time I scrapped it in 1978 but I'm quite sure it w…

this is survivorship bias, nothing more.

No it isn't. Survivorship bias would have been me claiming that because my cars lasted more than 50 k miles that therefore all cars did.

I merely added a small counter argument to the idea that cars of the period were necessarily short lived.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> JIT, in Lean, does not mean no buffer, it means as little of a buffer as you can get away with. Eh... I would argue that JIT means making that buffer someone else's problem. I was doing EDI at a logistics firm that contracted with Seagate who provided HDDs to Hitachi for their SANs around 2006. Hitachi was doing JIT for their manufacturing, Seagate however was just speculating Hitachi's demand and literally stockpi…

In this case you have two buffers. Seagate/you have a buffer for the outflow based on expected consumption rate. Hitachi almost certainly has some buffer of their own. This is not unusual with physical goods where you have the transportation time and cost to consider (which you/your employer took advantage of). If Hitachi couldn't consume your delivered HDDs as fast as they were delivered and anticipated any kind of…

In this case Hitachi didn't have a buffered supply. The warehouses were located literally across the street. The products were palletized at Seagate's factory in quantities matching Hitachi's product lines then delivered to the warehouse in a cadence closely matching Hitachi's consumption rate. So when Hitachi placed an order, a pallet was pulled and the ownership of the serial numbers on that pallet were transferred to Hitachi as it was delivered.

The logistics firm was the buffer allowing Seagate's product rate and Hitachi's consumption to be asymmetric in nature.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system You're assuming that increased profit margins will automatically increase supply chain buffers. But rather, the same incentive to hire too many financialists that "save the company money" will exist, and the extra profit margin will just go to increased dividends. And increasing the supply chain buffers won't help much right now either, it has to be d…

> You're assuming that increased profit margins will automatically increase supply chain buffers. I read GP's comment as increase prices to decrease hoarding, which in theory could provide the slack in the system. Problem might be that certain products may not be viable if prices get too high. Only those with sufficient margins prior.

The entire point of a floating price is that it increases until possible consumers drop off and some products are no longer viable.

It kicks low value products out of the market and prioritizes the high value products.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#489
post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Isn't TSMC working on expanding into the US?

Yes, but from what I understand, it won't be the most advanced plant making the smallest feature sizes, so it's not like Apple is going to be utilizing that plant (maybe for ancillary chips, but not main processor). Understandably, TSMC keeps a tight reign on their top-tier production methods, which is their reason for being #1.

It's also 3 years away from opening in AZ (2024). Then they have to fine tune the equipment and processes over x runs. New plants tend to have low yields until those processes are smoothed out and perfected. You don't just set up a plant and start churning out chips with 98% success rate at 5nm once the factory is built. It probably takes 5-6 years from construction start to churning out quality chips in numbers that are actually profitable.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab. Talk to Intel and ask them why we've fallen behind. Do any VCs want to fund a direct Intel competitor? I doubt it. Making chips seems to be quite a bit more complicated than making and launching rockets, I don't think even Elon Musk could do it.

Just subsidize it. I'm not asking for the Fab Czar, I'm asking for the NSF, DARPA, and national subsidies for it. Accelerated permitting, tax breaks, tarif support, state vs national investments, accelerated green cards for key personnel, and price breaks for a "buy US Chips" initiative for the first 5 years until things get serious and exports ramp up. I'm spitballing over morning coffee, but come on, this seems obv…

Will this do? https://www.eetimes.com/biden-ups-ante-to-50-billion-for-chi...
Post reply on HN