Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#211

Post by caf » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #66

zelos wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true at all, ~80% of emissions from an ICE car are from using and servicing it. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-l... Looking at that chart I think you could build a brand new ICE car, throw it away, build an EV and drive that instead and still come out ahead?

> Vehicle assumptions: 200 000 km lifetime mileage I was under the impression decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km these days, and can easily last 15+ years. Have electric vehicles even been in use long enough to have sufficient data to compare?

If we take as given that "decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km", then after accounting for both vehicles that are less than decent quality, and vehicles destroyed due to accident, malicious damage or poor maintenance long before they reach that figure, then a fleet average of 200,000 km doesn't seem out of the question.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#212

Post by BurningFrog » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #199

ipqk wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference being that lots of people want to keep those inflated housing prices high (nimbyism), whereas nearly everyone wants car prices to go back to normal.

I don't think it's necessarily NIMBY or at least my understanding of it that makes people want to keep housing prices elevated. If I buy a house at an inflated price, I want the house value to continue to rise as a large degree of my financial security is tied up in that house. My ability to refinance, take cash out and eventually even sell that house are tied to it continuing to escalate in value. In the US this is…

NIMBY-ism doesn't make people want housing prices to rise.

The wish to inflate housing prices causes NIMBY-ism!

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#213

Post by acdha » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

throwaway894345 wrote: post #131

What are these chips and what is preventing us from scaling up capacity? I’m not challenging that it’s difficult, but the reporting seems shoddy. Maybe I’m the only one who wants to understand this stuff, but these kinds of questions always seem obvious to me (same with COVID vaccine manufacturing).

Here’s a good rundown: it ultimately all comes back to chip fabs being huge operations with massive upfront costs which makes them sensitive to both the pandemic’s direct effects and secondary problems like the way the auto manufacturers slashed orders in 2020, forcing the chip manufacturers to sign other contracts to avoid idling that much capacity[1], and unrelated problems happening at the same time like cryptocurrency pulling capacity away from useful applications.

https://www.eetimes.com/the-chips-are-down-with-no-relief-in...

1. I’m not sure how much of this has been independently verified but this commenter blames the auto manufacturers heavily: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#214

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

ruuda wrote: post #99

icegreentea2 wrote: post #50

The article (and others about this topic) indicate that the chip shortage isn't just a static. They all claim that chip and other supply chains (all based on South East Asian) are all under new pressure from delta strain spread. In fact, I wonder how much of this really is chip supply vs general supply. Most articles on this open with headlines about chip supply, but then contains quotes from Toyota about "supply" an…

Yeah, this also makes no sense to me: > The Covid pandemic boosted demand for appliances that use chips, such as phones, TVs and games consoles. SOCs in phones and game consoles are produced on very different processes than chips used in cars, no? Cars don't need the smallest dies or most energy-efficient chips. These industries are not competing for the same capacity. Or am I missing something?

[deleted]

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#215

Post by dahfizz » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #203

mikeyouse wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously most people can’t do this but a family member was recently approached by the dealer who sold him his most recent work truck. He’s driven like 30k miles on it in the past 2 years and it was a $75k Chevy diesel. Dealer offered him $90k to buy it back from him (to sell to someone else) and my family member said “Sure”. So he made $15k on an asset that should have lost 1/2 its value by now. Obviously rare and h…

I assume that in most situations like this the original person with the truck would have to replace that truck. In this case he now has to pay 90k for the truck he originally paid 75k for.

Or hobble along with a "free" $15k clunker until prices go back down.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#216

Post by pyb » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

teorema wrote: post #115

brobdingnagians wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this is a dumb question, but does anyone still produce cars without chips? It's possible, and in the current environment it seems like it would be a major competitive advantage-- and might be more reliable in general.

Ugh... in one of the these threads on HN someone said a manufacturer was doing that, or at least openly speculating about it, offering a low tech model. I think it was in France but my memory is fuzzy.

Dacia Logan ?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#217

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #109

zeke wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One big advantage of low inventories is you do not have to fix or trash lots of parts if they were made out of spec. In the case of chips the odds are they are all good. It is just the cost of ownership but not the cost of refitting.

>One big advantage of low inventories is you do not have to fix or trash lots of parts if they were made out of spec Instead you either stop/slow production or shove them in your products and hope for the best.

You know a function called Supply Chain Management exists, right?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#218

Post by baybal2 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:46 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #31

dhbradshaw wrote: post #10

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

I'm sure someone's trying to spin up a fab right now, but that's inherently not a quick process.

There are tons of n-th tier fabs who seen the shortage coming 4-5 years ago, and trying to move the ladder in the legacy processes.

Rushing to compete with them when they had a 4-5 years headstart is not a wise decision.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#219

Post by heliodor » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

malfist wrote: post #164

codesnik wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how? can you capitalize on that upside somehow? sell them, live in a tent until prices are down?

I capitalized on it by buying a new car and selling my old one. I sold a 3 year old camaro for $1000 less than I paid for it. I didn't get very much off MSRP of the new car, but I got way more value from a three year old camaro than I ever expected to get.

So... you got more for your used car and paid more for your new one.

Which is exactly the point being made by the parent comment that you can't capitalize on the upside. You'd have to sell and step out for a while.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#220

Post by throwawaygh » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #113

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, equipment companies can't ship new equipment. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is somewhat self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ag…

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.