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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#61

Does anyone know the particulars of the shortage? Talking more about the commodity chips. Very hard to get anything from TI, ST or Microchip. Which fabs and nodes are specifically overloaded?

I'm not sure if this will answer your specific questions, but I found this HN comment from a few months ago to be some very interesting background:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please write back when Tesla learns how to correctly apply paint to a car or fit body panels, or well, pretty much everything else that makes an actual car a car instead of a disposable gadget.

Ah yes, the most important function of a car, the paint...

If you want a car to last more than five minutes, then yes, paint is very important

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#63

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

Maybe? It seems to me the overheads of establishing a fab process anywhere near the incumbents are astronomical. I would guess that even this bottleneck in supply would represent a minuscule fraction of that overhead. What are the actual numbers?

>> Maybe? It seems to me the overheads of establishing a fab process anywhere near the incumbents are astronomical.

It depends which parts are in short supply. A lot of automotive parts are still on 20+ year old nodes. 90nm to 130 or even 180nm. I would guess those are not the parts experiencing shortages though. So that leaves the fancy stuff. Bummer if a car can't be built because the infotainment SoC can't be obtained because it's competing for production with crypto mining GPUs.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually Toyota's manufacturing process was changed after Fukushima and was one of the only companies that plans for situations like this: https://www.autoblog.com/2021/03/09/toyota-how-it-avoided-se... Edit, what the other poster said.

yeah, but about everyone else?

They now learn the lesson Toyota learned in 2011.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#65
post #20

"Porsche will provide cars with ‘fake chips’ to reduce delivery times" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28042518

That makes no sense. I wonder what they mean by "fake" chips? Are they simply not placing the chip on the board, or are they using a footprint compatible different chip (unlikely), or are they completely redesigning the board with another chip which has much better availability? (most likely)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#66
post #45
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that driving an old car for longer has a smaller environmental impact than consistently driving newer cars as the bulk of emissions is during the manufacturing process. I have no data to support my statement, it's just my hunch. I'd be very keen if someone with the right knowledge can approve or disprove my statement.

Not true at all, ~80% of emissions from an ICE car are from using and servicing it. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-l... Looking at that chart I think you could build a brand new ICE car, throw it away, build an EV and drive that instead and still come out ahead?

> Vehicle assumptions: 200 000 km lifetime mileage

I was under the impression decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km these days, and can easily last 15+ years.

Have electric vehicles even been in use long enough to have sufficient data to compare?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#68
post #36
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Because older, less efficient cars are being kept on the road for longer?

I believe that driving an old car for longer has a smaller environmental impact than consistently driving newer cars as the bulk of emissions is during the manufacturing process. I have no data to support my statement, it's just my hunch. I'd be very keen if someone with the right knowledge can approve or disprove my statement.

The opposite is true - the manufacturing process is responsible for an average of 7-10 tonnes of CO2, while the same vehicle over its lifetime will emit more than 50 tonnes from the exhaust.

Moreover manufacturers have been reducing their carbon footprint lately. As an example VW reports that 70% of the energy the use in plants is provided by renewable sources.

That being said while emissions rules have been getting more stringent over the years, they're increasingly being followed through introducing EVs, not improvements in engine efficiency.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#69
post #21

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

One big advantage of low inventories is you do not have to fix or trash lots of parts if they were made out of spec. In the case of chips the odds are they are all good. It is just the cost of ownership but not the cost of refitting.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please write back when Tesla learns how to correctly apply paint to a car or fit body panels, or well, pretty much everything else that makes an actual car a car instead of a disposable gadget.

Ah yes, the most important function of a car, the paint...

Rust is a thing.
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