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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#41

Post by devttyeu »

compscistd wrote: post #5
3pt14159 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the supply of goods goes down, it pushes prices up.

But inflation has to do with the supply of money, not the supply of goods, right? Genuine question

Kind of both? If I were to come up with a formula, I'd say 'prices = GDP / SupplyOfGoods', where GDP is just 'MoneySupply * MoneyVelocity'.

If supply goes down, prices go up. If money supply grows, prices go up. If money velocity (number of times money changes hands in a given period) goes down, prices go down, etc.

(It's worth noting that in 2020 when money supply exploded, money velocity fell by a lot, which is why GDP fell, and why there wasn't that much inflation)

edit: s/inflation/prices/

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#42

Post by bottled_poe »

dhbradshaw wrote: post #10

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

Maybe? It seems to me the overheads of establishing a fab process anywhere near the incumbents are astronomical. I would guess that even this bottleneck in supply would represent a minuscule fraction of that overhead. What are the actual numbers?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#43

Post by da_big_ghey »

kristofferR wrote: post #6

Good! Toyota has been sabotaging clean cars because they can't compete [1][2]. Most well known car brands have great electric cars now, but Toyota and their oil lobby buddies are trying to halt the progress. The decline of Toyota sales is good news for the world. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/climate/toyota-electric-h... [2] https://insideevs.com/features/524481/toyota-hybrid-pioneer-...

Toyota is not "sabotaging clean cars", only trying to delay regulations.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#44

Post by minikites »

dd36 wrote: post #21
Veliladon wrote: post #7

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

This is a misunderstanding of lean manufacturing. Lean is not about eliminating every stockpile, it's about thinking through your supply needs and only stockpiling what is necessary.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#45

Post by zelos »

RutZap wrote: post #36
folli wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Because older, less efficient cars are being kept on the road for longer?

I believe that driving an old car for longer has a smaller environmental impact than consistently driving newer cars as the bulk of emissions is during the manufacturing process. I have no data to support my statement, it's just my hunch. I'd be very keen if someone with the right knowledge can approve or disprove my statement.

Not true at all, ~80% of emissions from an ICE car are from using and servicing it.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-l...

Looking at that chart I think you could build a brand new ICE car, throw it away, build an EV and drive that instead and still come out ahead?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#46

Post by swarnie_ »

twarge wrote: post #26
dhbradshaw wrote: post #10

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

I've noticed that the shortage of chips is also strongly driven by speculators simply buying up everything in sight and trying to resell at multiples of the cost.

You think people are buying up Chips designed to go in to Toyota cars?

Surely they're beyond worthless to anyone but the manufacturer and Toyota themselves?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#47

Post by hownottowrite »

kristofferR wrote: post #6

Good! Toyota has been sabotaging clean cars because they can't compete [1][2]. Most well known car brands have great electric cars now, but Toyota and their oil lobby buddies are trying to halt the progress. The decline of Toyota sales is good news for the world. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/climate/toyota-electric-h... [2] https://insideevs.com/features/524481/toyota-hybrid-pioneer-...

Please write back when Tesla learns how to correctly apply paint to a car or fit body panels, or well, pretty much everything else that makes an actual car a car instead of a disposable gadget.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#48

Post by doikor »

dd36 wrote: post #21
Veliladon wrote: post #7

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

After the 2011 earthquake they came to the conclusion that for some hard to source parts you have to keep a big stockpile.

Basically if a part can only be produced by one or two parties there is too much risk of that source going away and disrupt everything else. This also applies all the way down the chain so if you got part A that can be made by 20 contractors but if all of those contractors depend on the same source then that part is also on the list of "stockpile this part enough to get over most disruptions"

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#49

Post by AzzieElbab »

monkeynotes wrote: post #32
imaginariet wrote: post #13

As Taleb likes to say, an efficient system is the opposite of a robust system, kind of by definition. We are now witnessing the effects of our modern hyper-efficient just-in-time global manufacturing system.

Actually Toyota's manufacturing process was changed after Fukushima and was one of the only companies that plans for situations like this: https://www.autoblog.com/2021/03/09/toyota-how-it-avoided-se... Edit, what the other poster said.

yeah, but about everyone else?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#50

Post by icegreentea2 »

The article (and others about this topic) indicate that the chip shortage isn't just a static. They all claim that chip and other supply chains (all based on South East Asian) are all under new pressure from delta strain spread.

In fact, I wonder how much of this really is chip supply vs general supply. Most articles on this open with headlines about chip supply, but then contains quotes from Toyota about "supply" and "parts" in general.

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