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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#21

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#23
On one hand, Toyota buys so many chips that their supplier will probably prioritize their orders.

On the other hand, Tesla is tiny compared to Toyota but is probably more flexible and can adapt faster, e.g by using alt chips with new firmware and by using fewer chips per vehicles (to be proven, but we know Model Y has half the number of ECUs of Mach E / ID.4 for instance).

Also, without dealers, Tesla could better manage their build-to-order system and pricing (to push customers towards high margin vehicles and forgo volume growth while the shortage continues)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#24
post #16

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

I don't think chip suppliers are playing games here, are they? I think in general all chip manufacturers are at capacity and it comes down to getting in line. And I'm sure many chip manufacturers are trying to expand their capacity. I can't imagine they're sitting there thinking this will last forever.

I'm not sure the reasons for the shortage matter. If you have a dependency that's causing you major problems, you try to become less dependent on it.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#25

As Taleb likes to say, an efficient system is the opposite of a robust system, kind of by definition. We are now witnessing the effects of our modern hyper-efficient just-in-time global manufacturing system.

Actually, Toyota moved away from JIT after 2011 earthquake when several of it’s factories had to stop production due to lack of parts from other factories impacted by earthquake. One of the change was increased inventory levels of components.

Toyota is one of the last automaker to reduce production due to the current chip shortage, because they had enough chips for 18-24 months of production.

Edit: It seems some of Toyota factories in Southeast Asia have shutdown due to Covid spread in those countries resulting in shortage of parts supplied to factories in Japan. Reported to be 40% reduction in production.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#26

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

I've noticed that the shortage of chips is also strongly driven by speculators simply buying up everything in sight and trying to resell at multiples of the cost.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#27
post #22
post #17

That is good news for planet earth!

Why? Because older, less efficient cars are being kept on the road for longer?

The question of whether to keep an old car or buy a new, cleaner car is difficult, with many important unspecified variables such as who 'owns' the emissions due to the manufacture of a car (the manufacturer? the first owner? all owners?).

This isn't true for mileage though. If you move closer to work, your commute will emit less.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#28
post #21

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

They changed after 2011 earthquake when several factories couldn’t continue production because parts were not coming from factories impacted by earthquake.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#29
post #21

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

That changed after 2011 earthquake

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#30
post #21

Toyota was one of the few (only?) companies to keep a large stockpile of chips on hand to continue production in case of a supply interruption. They kept something like two years worth on hand. I guess 18 months of doing the extremely heavy lifting for the whole industry has taken its toll and now they're in the same boat.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

And then they invented that maybe they should keep poorly sourceable parts at hand. And chips are those. Unlike nuts, bolts, metal and plastics. Which you can easily find replacements for.
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