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Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

sciencemag.org

231–240 of 241 posts

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you should hope to be invented is better vaccines/treatment.

We have the vaccine/treatment. We lack a population willing to embrace it, at sufficient levels to make a meaningful difference.

We have a similarly large population full of so much vitriol that it wouldn't matter what the topic is, instinct is to rebel. The first step is for people advocating for vaccines to stop this hateful bile, and with social media etc. it just ain't gonna happen.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#232
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the fact that the delta variant came from a country that didn't have widespread vaccines dispels this notion.

Seems perfectly in line with what I said? More virus, more time to mutate -> more mutations? I now understand that there are second order effects that make this more complex, but I don't see the contradiction right here.

I suppose either you edited it to change the text or the more likely event was that I misread it. yeah you're mostly correct and there are those second order effects too.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What death rate would cause you to reconsider a lockdown?

Why would the onus work that way? What death rate do you think government should start restrictions at? Driving? Eating certain things? Smoking? The mental health fallout from living as some technocrat wants you to?

Smoking is a good example. My country has quite bad COVID numbers both in number of cases and deaths. Yet: in one and a half years of pandemic fewer than 4500 people died from COVID. About 6000 die each year from smoking-related diseases. You all probably know how different government takes on these issues are.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel at this point hospitals should just triage the willfully unvaccinated covid patients behind all other emergencies. Possibly set aside X number of beds for covid patients, the rest of the ICU beds are for everything else. Out of covid beds? Well you've gotta wait for someone to die and then they'll see you. They chose to "not live in fear", they can live - and possibly die - with the consequences.

I don't think it's that simple. Could we also triage patients that have an unhealthy lifestyle as recommended against by doctors for a long time? We know eating well works to build and maintain a healthy immune system, and that heart disease and obesity is one major factor to covid hospitalization and death. Could we put put the ones that have decided to stuff their faces with fast and processed foods in the back of…

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Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#235
post #134
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. This is a bad interpretation by the article's author. At some point (at 100% vaccination rate) we'd expect 100% of people in hos…

> The population is 3.9m, so 2500 cases per day. According to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel it is actually up to 6000 cases per day. The population is 9.3 million, so 650 cases/million is indeed about 6000 cases per day.

Arhhh!

I swear it said 3.9M before, but maybe I'm wrong.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel at this point hospitals should just triage the willfully unvaccinated covid patients behind all other emergencies. Possibly set aside X number of beds for covid patients, the rest of the ICU beds are for everything else. Out of covid beds? Well you've gotta wait for someone to die and then they'll see you. They chose to "not live in fear", they can live - and possibly die - with the consequences.

I don't think it's that simple. Could we also triage patients that have an unhealthy lifestyle as recommended against by doctors for a long time? We know eating well works to build and maintain a healthy immune system, and that heart disease and obesity is one major factor to covid hospitalization and death. Could we put put the ones that have decided to stuff their faces with fast and processed foods in the back of…

Sure, if that becomes necessary due to America's lifestyle, I don't see why not.

I'm unaware of that being the current issue though. It seems to me hospitals are overrun with COVID patients, most of them their due to their own unwillingness to get vaccinated.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#237
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. This is a bad interpretation by the article's author. At some point (at 100% vaccination rate) we'd expect 100% of people in hos…

Regardless of the rate, the absolute number is staggeringly high. As you said, Israel has 303 fully vaccinated people hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19. Adjusting for population, that's the equivalent of the US having 10,700 fully vaccinated people hospitalized at any one point, and that's just for critical and severe cases. If they all need ICU beds, that's like having 10 to 20% of America's ICU beds per…

Just noting that generally speaking severe COVID patients aren't in ICU now that treatment is better.

Indeed it is a lot, but it's comparable to the worst flu seasons. Exact numbers on ICU utilisation are hard to find, but US hospitals have struggled in the past:

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-2018...

https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20190205/bad-...

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#238
post #84

What I'm curious about is: what happens now? When everyone starts realizing that vaccines and masks can't fully contain a spread, what's the next logical step to take? Are people going to insist that you keep wearing your mask, take booster shots and live in fear for the next 50 years or are we going to collectively change our mindset from "Zero COVID" to accepting that COVID is just another risk factor in the world…

The article mentions vaccination, but it also mentions that Israel is going to have to go back to masks and social distancing. It is my understanding that this situation happened partially because they stopped wearing masks... There was a prior study that mentioned the efficiency of the vaccine alone was somewhere in the 60-65 percent range without masks for the BioNTech vaccine, about a 33% drop in efficiency is nothing to laugh at.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wearing a mask is not a small ask. If it was, attendance at bars, restaurants, shows, etc. would not fall off a cliff when imposed.

> Wearing a mask is not a small ask. Of course it is, I have been wearing mask for 2 years now. And I am wearing glasses. Is washing your hands too much to ask too? > If it was, attendance at bars, restaurants, shows, etc. That was due to social distancing and lockdowns, not masks.

The capacity limits were not an issue in the summertime when people could hang out outdoors, especially with the loosening of public drinking laws.

The masks? they made everything worse. They're incredibly bothersome to wear when its hot and humid, they induce psychological pressure on you via the feeling of being "smothered," and make every social interaction much harder to understand making each interaction more tiring to be a part of. It's equivalent to being in a Zoom conversation where you can't read all the subtleties of somebody else.

That's not even mentioning the blue collar labor force which has to wear these for 40 hours a week. My friends who work as waiters, bar staff, etc. still have to wear them during the day. The last thing they want to do when they get off work is to continue wearing them.

(all of this is relative to NYC, which had a ~31% closure rate for small businesses)

I understand some people here, such as yourself, don't think the masks are a big deal. But to the vast majority of the populace, they are a burden so bad its worth _moving cities and states to avoid_.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is washing your hands too much to ask too? For (too) many people washing hands is indeed too much to ask...

>> Is washing your hands too much to ask too? > For (too) many people washing hands is indeed too much to ask... This. This is why Covid is here to stay.

COVID-19 spreads via the air, not through physical contact.
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