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Economic costs of war

watson.brown.edu

581–590 of 618 posts

Re: Economic costs of war

#581
post #503
post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cultural aspect is critical and people have overlooked in many places. The Optimism for Russia after the fall of the USSR, Ukraine and Afghanistan, Libya, etc. Places with no democratic foundation or tradition but plagued by corruption. It needs to grow over decades organically for the people to get used to the idea and the institutions, for example, like in Hong-Kong. Singapore is another example and they yet do…

Libya? Plagued by corruption? Oh, you mean _after_ the U.S. destabilised it? Okay.

The petro-dollar is a bit of a catch 22. Either we produce our own domestically and purchase with Canada (ideally using the keystone pipeline - but we know how that played out) or we throw out all of our internal production for "environmental" reasons and continue to pillage the middle east to make sure we have enough oil.

IMO, taking a bit of an environmental hit or trading with Canada is far superior to spending trillions blowing up the middle east and causing more problems than were there to begin with in an already historically unstable region.

Re: Economic costs of war

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the public face, the politicians talked about t-----ism and A- Q----. Behind the scenes, they're all doing things like this and getting filthy rich: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genie_Energy

What am I supposed to be taking away from that Wikipedia link? The words “Afghanistan” and “war” don’t appear in the article anywhere. It mentions some activity in Israel and that’s it. It feels to me like you’re mentioning a random energy company as a bogeyman, but it doesn’t actually involve any particular malicious activity.

I think the parent is talking about the fact Dick Cheney is on the advisory board among other former US government officials as seen on the linked page.

Re: Economic costs of war

#583
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since this is based on US spending I am assuming you are talking about US taxes, in which case, no you are not paying 55% in taxes.

If he's making a high salary in NYC, or California, why not?

Because the math doesn't work out.

Re: Economic costs of war

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wind and solar are cheaper and can be brought online as fast as we can build it I love wind and solar. I built a 13 kW array on our property and will likely expand it to 20 kW next year. However, even if we deploy the most optimal forms of wind and solar energy at a global scale --forms that have yet to be invented-- this will not be enough to stop or reverse atmospheric CO2 concentration. In fact, even if we do th…

Still gotta try, though. Solar is already a great deal cheaper than it was in 2014 when that article was published; by more than 50%, in fact. And there's a new X-Prize for C02 removal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#... https://www.xprize.org/prizes/elonmusk There's a number of other pieces of the puzzle that need urgent action. Cleaning up international shipping is a big one which comes…

Cost isn't the issue. It's physics. The paper isn't about economics, it's about the physics, the science. And what they found is that claiming that renewables will do anything at all for atmospheric CO2 concentration is, well, as false a statement as anyone can make.

The study including looking at deploying solar and wind world-wide with the most advanced versions of these technologies. They determined that not only would this not stop atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, it would continue to rise exponentially.

Arguing for solar and wind to "save the planet" is the equivalent of being an anti-vaxer and not taking a vaccine in the face of a global pandemic. Even worse than that, it's like believing that drinking bleach will battle the virus. In other words, if you do the math, the real science, it is complete nonsense. The idea simply isn't supported by the scientific realities of the matter.

On the other items.

Yes, container ships burn bunker fuel, perhaps the nastiest stuff you can burn. It's amazing to me that politicians wage battles against straws and NOBODY talks about bunker fuel. It goes to show you that the only things that matter at the political matter are simple messages for simple-minded voters who can keep the politicians floating this nonsense in office through their easy-to-buy votes. Once you detach from ideology the whole thing looks like a big huge stinking mess.

> There's no silver bullet, and we need urgent action on many fronts. But things will be worse if we simply despair and do nothing.

I would put it differently.

First, we need to stop thinking we have the ability to control a planetary-scale problem. We cannot do it. At all. Even if we left the planet --all seven billion of us-- it would take about 50,000 years for atmospheric CO2 to come down by 100 ppm.

These X prizes are neat and all, but, in this case, they are far more likely to be marketing opportunities for those getting behind them than anything else. If they are even mildly intelligent they likely know the score. Nobody is going to win any of these prizes unless there's marketing value --rather than a scientifically sound actual solution.

Driving our limitation are things like the principle of conservation of energy. Put in relevant terms: We can't fix a mess with less energy than that which went into creating it.

We have people claiming we can reduce atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm in just 50 years. That is a thousand times faster than the natural rate of change. I am not sure we have the energy and resources needed to make something like that happen, even if it were possible. The whole thing is almost laughable.

I urge you to get on Amazon and order a CO2 meter. Then go around taking reading. What you will learn will astound you. In a nutshell, we have been living in 600 to 1,000 ppm CO2 environments, likely for centuries. The ~400 ppm number quoted by those pushing a sky is falling narrative are average atmospheric readings at who knows what location and altitude. Measure CO2 in your home, apartment and office. Measure it at your neighbors and friends. You will most-definitely be surprised. And then, the question you should ask is simple: We have been living in high CO2 ppm environments all of our lives...the sky has not fallen and people have not turned into mush. Why are we being misled?

Re: Economic costs of war

#586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Taliban were to attack US forces or otherwise enrage the West right now, they would likely be bombed. If they wait a week, they can do literally whatever they want with no reprisals. They haven't "chilled out", they've just won.

"...they've just won." (that is, the Taliban have won) Consider: - the Taliban that G.W. Bush knew are gone. Most of them have died, - OBL and most of his partners are dead, - almost anyone who helped OBL and is still alive remains a target and lives in fear for their life, IOW who "won" might be considered to depend on what we mean by the word "Taliban". The Taliban today is not the Taliban of yesteryear. If there i…

> IOW who "won" might be considered to depend on what we mean by the word "Taliban".

Well it certainly wouldn’t include UBL or anyone in Al Qaeda, since they are two totally different groups with totally different goals. We could have gone in 20 years ago with the goal of destroying Al Qaeda and their ability to organize terror attacks. We chose to also overthrow the Taliban “government” and install a new government in Afghanistan.

> If there is someone who was Taliban during G.W.'s term and is still Taliban today, ask him whether this feels like victory. He might say yes, but then ask him about his old fighting buddies who weren't as lucky as he.

"The days of the Taliban are over. The future of Afghanistan belongs to the people of Afghanistan. And the future of Afghanistan belongs to freedom." -President Bush 2006

“I am considering two promises. One is the promise of God, the other is that of Bush. The promise of God is that my land is vast. If you start a journey on God's path, you can reside anywhere on this earth and will be protected... The promise of Bush is that there is no place on earth where you can hide that I cannot find you. We will see which one of these two promises is fulfilled…As for the United States' future in Afghanistan, it will be fire and hell and total defeat, God willing, as it was for their predecessors - the Soviets and, before them, the British.”- Mullah Mohammad Omar, 2001

Mullah Mohammad Omar died of natural causes. Jalaluddin Haqqani died of natural causes, and Sirajuddin Haqqani and the other Haqqani senior leaders of today were around in 2001. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, “the Butcher of Kabul”, and a key senior ally to the Taliban pre and post 9/11 is alive and pardoned. Abdul Ghani Baradar, co-founder of the Taliban, is out of prison, and signed the agreement on behalf of the Taliban for the US withdrawal. The Taliban of 2001 and the Taliban of today are the same Taliban, just 20 years apart.

I don’t find your “considerations” at all compelling.

Re: Economic costs of war

#587
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Taliban are smart they won’t do reprisals but instead will offer amnesty in exchange for service. The dumbest thing we did in Iraq was to do the functional equivalent of the Taliban doing reprisals by disbanding the military, government, and Ba’ath party. It created a mass unemployment problem and swelled the ranks of the opposition with listless now unemployed people.

And not only listless now unemployed people, but listless now unemployed people whose only job skill was being a soldier . I mean what the hell did we think they were going to do.

Wait, are you saying that disbanding a country’s security services, throwing the country into lawless chaos with no local force to enforce laws and keep order, and putting thousands of military trained men out of work, is not a good strategy?

Re: Economic costs of war

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you! The money printer goes brrr meme is dangerously wrong.

User23 is directly describing how the money printer's gears turn in detail, but the gears go brrrr all the same.

No, they do not. The banks are not loaning anything; thus there is zero brrring.

Re: Economic costs of war

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you say is true, but I think people get pissed off when comparing US Military spending vs... basically the entirety of the world https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison This is so far beyond overkill it's sickening.

Not sure how this relates to what I wrote? Apparently USA voters do think the spending is adequate... or do you have a better way to decide on this? On a tangential: We can also try to compare the cost of 1 mile of subway in NY vs 1 mile in Shanghai. I didn't check but I would assume NY cost would be more than double. Services in US cost a lot. US innovates and a lot of other countries copy... while it seems that Chi…

It's manufactured consent. The voters don't have a meaningful choice on this axis.
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