Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta • Hacker News Board

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#51

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:35 AM UTC

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #45

brodouevencode wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pretense all along as far as I can tell from most countries has been one of "zero COVID". Meaning a total removal/extermination of the virus. Whether or not this was ever realistic is really the underlying debate that hasn't yet fully surfaced.

Of course it was realistic. China basically achieved it (I am not a China fan or defender), but the rest of the world failed. The whole world achieved it for the first SARS. However, that ship sailed a long time ago. Probably before the first surge in Italy of COVID-19.

[deleted]

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#52

Post by criticaltinker » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:36 AM UTC

danielodievich wrote: post #4

I am good friends with 3 doctors, and talk to them a lot about the amazing science behind the vaccines and the incredible speed with which those were designed and developed. All agree it was done at pretty much the software speed - custom designed on the computer in weeks and then built to order - and both them and I think it's pretty neat. It is very refreshing to talk to them because they, being good doctors, deal…

> all 3 of them told me to expect something like that - the virus mutates ... and the vaccines will likely be needing to adjust

Your doctor friends were informing you about a phenomenon commonly referred to as "immune escape".

The current mRNA based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are effective at preventing severe outcomes like hospitalization and death. However, they do not necessarily prevent infection or transmission - and they induce an immune response highly targeted toward the spike protein RBD [1]. Combined with mass vaccination strategies, these factors contribute to a situation that exerts tremendous selective pressure on the virus, and can result in convergent mutations that are advantageous for the virus in a large population of people [1][2]. These mutations can lead to partial or complete immune escape, which manifests as increased transmission or virulence, reduced vaccine efficacy, and reduced immunity in naturally infected individuals.

> Even the highest levels of vaccination are no protection

It's not quite accurate to say "are no protection". I would rephrase as:

Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities [1]

[1] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/

[2] SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion by the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant of concern https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/scie...

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#53

Post by maxerickson » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:36 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #9

There were several prominent epidemiologists who said early on “Covid will end up like the flu, you’ll need a yearly vaccine, we’ll have new variants and we’ll get waves of infections through out the year”. And here we are.

Is it mutating as fast as flu? The Delta variant was first identified in December of last year and is the main variant of concern still.

And then lots of people will have gotten sufficient protection against it from their first vaccination.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#54

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

landemva wrote: post #23

refurb wrote: post #9

There were several prominent epidemiologists who said early on “Covid will end up like the flu, you’ll need a yearly vaccine, we’ll have new variants and we’ll get waves of infections through out the year”. And here we are.

I havent (needed) a flu shot in a couple decades. I'm not interested in yearly jabs. Better to lose the waist inches and high BMI. Few want the self-responsibility of healthy living. And I don't agree with headline of "grim", as it was obvious a year ago this was coming. Who lost any excess weight in the past year?

[deleted]

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#55

Post by anyfoo » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

weaksauce wrote: post #39

anyfoo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A less effective vaccination keeps COVID around longer and farther than a more effective one, though, giving the virus more time and population surface to mutate into further variants. (But still less than no vaccination.) I'm not an expert in this, so I cannot say how significant that issue is, but this is at least one potential downside that I am seeing to the vaccination being weaker for that variant. EDIT: To cla…

the fact that the delta variant came from a country that didn't have widespread vaccines dispels this notion.

Seems perfectly in line with what I said? More virus, more time to mutate -> more mutations?

I now understand that there are second order effects that make this more complex, but I don't see the contradiction right here.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#56

Post by cickpass_broken » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

smt88 wrote: post #20

loteck wrote: post #10

If we had effective treatments and OTC therapies for this illness, the pressure to vaccinate against every resurgence and new mutation would basically disappear. With so much social difficulty with vaccines, this seems like the most likely long term path. Where's my cherry flavored Covidquil?

This is absolutely wrong. A vaccine is a fraction of the cost of treatment, and it has no long-term side effects. Even better, a vaccine reduces the chance for a virus to mutate. Treatments, even if they work, are going to have side effects, and there are still unknown risks from a severe (unvaccinated) infection anyway. Vaccines are a miracle of proactivity, and there's no reason to try to replace them with somethin…

the cost of these vaccines is largely hidden, no? Each country made deals behind closed doors AFAIK. I've seen some estimates of $12-$30 a shot, but have no idea the validity of this.

How much do the treatments cost? Is it vastly different?

> No long term side effects.

How do you know? I thought the only study/data from Pfizer covered 6 months. That's not very long term? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v...

I don't think we need to replace vaccines, but large swathes of the population still don't have access. It seems very likely that a multi-modal approach would allow us to treat more people, faster.

Even Pfizer sees vaccination as well as treatment as the path forward: https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus/antiviral-efforts

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#57

Post by wrl » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

landemva wrote: post #23

refurb wrote: post #9

There were several prominent epidemiologists who said early on “Covid will end up like the flu, you’ll need a yearly vaccine, we’ll have new variants and we’ll get waves of infections through out the year”. And here we are.

I havent (needed) a flu shot in a couple decades. I'm not interested in yearly jabs. Better to lose the waist inches and high BMI. Few want the self-responsibility of healthy living. And I don't agree with headline of "grim", as it was obvious a year ago this was coming. Who lost any excess weight in the past year?

I live healthy. I built a home gym at the start of lockdown and have continued to train powerlifting and Olympic WL both throughout. I get my cardio in, I eat well. I didn't lose weight in the past year – I gained muscle, and my numbers are the best they've ever been.

I got both Pfizer/BNT shots as soon as I could, and I'll get the boosters as soon as I can too.

The belief that healthy living alone is enough to stymie a virus that we still understand relatively poorly is foolhardy. It's in the same category as juice cleanses and homeopathy as far as I'm concerned.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#58

Post by version_five » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

stirfish wrote: post #46

morpheos137 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would respectfully submit that the death rate of covid does not justify the scale of the response. It is unreasonable to shut down society for a disease whose median age victim is about 80 and whose whole population case fatality rate is in the low single digit percent at worse. The elderly and well off want to minimize their risk at the expense of the young and the poor. Who do you think delivered your Amazon pack…

What death rate would cause you to reconsider a lockdown?

Why would the onus work that way? What death rate do you think government should start restrictions at? Driving? Eating certain things? Smoking? The mental health fallout from living as some technocrat wants you to?

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#59

Post by maxerickson » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

criticaltinker wrote: post #52

danielodievich wrote: post #4

I am good friends with 3 doctors, and talk to them a lot about the amazing science behind the vaccines and the incredible speed with which those were designed and developed. All agree it was done at pretty much the software speed - custom designed on the computer in weeks and then built to order - and both them and I think it's pretty neat. It is very refreshing to talk to them because they, being good doctors, deal…

> all 3 of them told me to expect something like that - the virus mutates ... and the vaccines will likely be needing to adjust Your doctor friends were informing you about a phenomenon commonly referred to as "immune escape". The current mRNA based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are effective at preventing severe outcomes like hospitalization and death. However, they do not necessarily prevent infection or transmission - and t…

The Delta variant emerged prior to widespread vaccination.

Re: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#60

Post by bogomipz » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:37 AM UTC

djmips wrote: post #36

One thing to ponder is that Israel used Pfizer and apparently Moderna, has a significantly better protection against Delta.

That has not been established. You are referring to a preliminary study that has not been peer reviewed. See:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...