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U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#311
post #294

Teslas are the safest vehicles on the road, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. ( https://drivemag.com/news/how-safe-are-tesla-cars-5-facts-an... ). Teslas crash 40% less than other cars, and 1/3 the number of people are killed in Teslas versus other cars. Indeed once a common failure mode like this is identified it needs to be investigated and fixed. Something similar happened a few year…

I really wrestle with this line of reasoning. Tesla keeps pointing this out, and it's appealing to me, but at the same time something about it seems off to me. I can't tell if this is erroneous intuition on my part blinding me to a more rational assessment, or if that intuition is onto something important.

Some top-of-my-head thoughts:

1. I think to make a fair comparison of Tesla versus other cars, you'd have to really ask "how much safer are Tesla owners in Teslas compared to other cars randomly assigned to them?" That is, comparing the accident rates of Teslas compared to other cars is misleading because Tesla owners are not a random slice of the population. I almost guarantee that if you e.g., looked at their accident rates prior to owning a Tesla their accident rates would be lower than the general population.

2. In these autopilot situations, bringing up general accident rates seems sort of like a red herring to me. The actual causally relevant issue is "what would happen in this scenario if someone were driving without an autopilot?" So, for example, in the example of the rider who was killed when the autopilot drove them into a semi, the actually relevant question is "what would have happened if that driver, or someone interchangeable with them, was driving without autopilot? Would have they drove themselves into a semi?"

3. Various experts have argued general vehicle accident rates aren't comparable to Teslas because average cars are much, much older. As such, you should be comparing accident rates of cars of the same age, if nothing else. So, aside from the driver effect pointed out earlier, you have the question of "what would the accident rate look like in a Tesla or a car identical to it without autopilot?"

4. At some point with autopilot -- whether it be Tesla or other companies -- you have to start treating it comparably to a single individual. So, for example, what are the odds of Person A27K38, driving the same number of miles as Tesla, having a certain pattern of accidents? If you found a specific person drove into first responders on the side of the road 11 times, wouldn't that be suggestive of a pattern? Or would it? It's not enough to ask "how often do non autopilot drivers drive into first responders on the side of the road", it seems to me important to ask "how often would a single driver drive into first responders on the side of the road, given a certain number of miles driven in that same period?" At some point, autopilot becomes a driver, in the sense it has a unique identity regardless of how many copies of it there are? Maybe that's not right but it seems like that is the case.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#312

A lot of people in here saying it is not possible to drive safely with partial self driving. I wonder, how many of those people have actually driven a car with autopilot? I have autopilot on my car, and it definitely makes me a better and safer driver. It maintains my distance from the car in front and my speed while keeping me in my lane, so my brain no longer has to worry about those mundane things. Instead I can s…

I drove a friend's Model 3, and within five minutes of driving on autopilot it got confused at an intersection and tried to make a pretty sudden 'lane change' to the wrong side of a divided road.

Obviously that's a single anecdote, and I don't know if it would have gone through with it because I immediately corrected, but that was my experience.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This expresses the mindset I find myself in when I use Autopilot. It's like enabling cruise control, you're still watching traffic around you but now you don't need to focus on maintaining the correct speed or worry about keeping your car perfectly in a lane. You can more or less let the car handle that (with your hands on the wheel to guard against the occasional jerky maneuver when a lane widens for example) while…

Exactly. It frees the driver from increasingly advanced levels of mundane driving (cruise control manages just speed, adaptive cruise also deals with following distance, lane keeping deals with most of the steering input, etc) allowing the driver to focus more on monitoring the situation and strategic portion of driving rather than the tactical. Of course, this relies on the driver to actually do that. They could jus…

my 2021 Subaru Forester does all of these things and I do feel like I am safer with them on and paying attention to the rest of driving.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#314
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I was shocked that in the USA in 2019 about 40-46% of all road death people were unbelted, while 90% of front seat people wear seat belts according to observation studies. Doesn't that just speak to the effectiveness of seatbelts? Most people wear them, and two-fifths of those who died in a crash did not wear a seatbelt. If we had the same proportion of deaths as we have seatbelt wearers, that would indicate the be…

Assuming that belted and unbelted people get into accidents at the same rate, and given another commenter mentioning that Autopilot users have 8.7x lower accident rate than baseline, that makes Autopilot a greater safety add than seat belts, no?

Can Autopilot work in heavy rain or fog? If not, those comparisons are useless. Those are the conditions where most accidents occur, not in sunny Californian weather.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#315

A lot of people in here saying it is not possible to drive safely with partial self driving. I wonder, how many of those people have actually driven a car with autopilot? I have autopilot on my car, and it definitely makes me a better and safer driver. It maintains my distance from the car in front and my speed while keeping me in my lane, so my brain no longer has to worry about those mundane things. Instead I can s…

As someone who has used Autopilot extensively, I can tell you: you only have the illusion of enhanced safety. In reality, parts of your brain have shut down to save energy, and you've lost some situational awareness, but you can't tell that's happened.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#316

I remember when Google was first presenting on driverless technology about 10 years ago, and they mentioned how you have to go right to full self driving, because any advanced driver assistance will clash with human risk compensation behavior. Risk compensation is fascinating; driving with a bike helmet causes the biker and drivers around the biker to behave more dangerously. Is society sophisticated enough to deal w…

> Risk compensation is fascinating; driving with a bike helmet causes the biker and drivers around the biker to behave more dangerously. Source please

I remember reading that viewpoint in this essay: https://cyclingtips.com/2018/11/commentary-why-i-stopped-wea...

there are some sources and studies linked. i.e. countries with the highest rate of helmet use also have the highest cyclist fatality rates

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#317
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a question that is answerable with the right data – we can just see if it's safer or not.

Doesn't the data show that cars with assistive technologies are in fewer non-fatal and fatal accidents?

Tesla marketed Autopilot != responsibly implemented assistive safety systems.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#318
post #277
post #3

This is why I believe the approach of incremental improvement towards full self driving is fundamentally flawed. These advanced driver assist tools are good enough to lull users into a false sense of security. No amount of "but our terms and conditions say you need to always pay attention!" will overcome human nature building that trust and dependence.

A car that beeps when I drift out of lane, or beeps when I go too fast before a curve, or beeps like hell if I cross over the center median would be hugely useful, because a record of every warning would be there, whether correct or not. Conversely, if it didn't warn me right before an accident, then the absence of that warning would be useful too. All of that information should be put back into the model based on cr…

The new Toyota RAV4's have this feature-- if you go out of bounds in your lane they beep and the steer5ing wheel gives a bit of resistance.

It also reads the speed limit signs and places a reminder in the display. I think it can brake if it detects something in front of it, but I'm not certain.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#319

A lot of people in here saying it is not possible to drive safely with partial self driving. I wonder, how many of those people have actually driven a car with autopilot? I have autopilot on my car, and it definitely makes me a better and safer driver. It maintains my distance from the car in front and my speed while keeping me in my lane, so my brain no longer has to worry about those mundane things. Instead I can s…

> "* It maintains my distance from the car in front and my speed while keeping me in my lane, so my brain no longer has to worry about those mundane things.*"

Ive been driving for 25 years, cars, trucks, trailers, standard and auto transmissions, and I have never once thought to myself "I'd be such a better diver if I didn't have to pay attention to my speed, lane keeping or following distance" Why? Because those mundane things are already on autopilot in my brain.

Posts like yours are so absurd to met that I cant help but think shill.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#320

I remember when Google was first presenting on driverless technology about 10 years ago, and they mentioned how you have to go right to full self driving, because any advanced driver assistance will clash with human risk compensation behavior. Risk compensation is fascinating; driving with a bike helmet causes the biker and drivers around the biker to behave more dangerously. Is society sophisticated enough to deal w…

Risk compensation probably also works the other way, looking forward to all news cars standard supplied with a new safety device that cuts traffic accidents to a small fraction of what they used to be, the only ones remaining are all fatal for the driver. A nice and very sharp 8" stainless steel spike on the steering wheel facing the driver.

> A nice and very sharp 8" stainless steel spike on the steering wheel facing the driver.

Didn't we have those in the 50s and 60s? Maybe not sharp, but collapsable steering columns are a significant improvement to survivability.

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