I'm amazed at how many people still see the Iraq and Afghanistan interventions as correct moves. Just last week I was having a friendly mostly non-political conversation with two of my coworkers and then the topic verged to the military and then to the Iraq wars. (For context, I'm Canadian and they're both US ex-pats in Canada.) Both had the opinion, still, that the Iraq war was the correct move at the time. But coul…
At this point? None. At that point? Well...
Saddam was playing a very subtle game. He was, on the one hand, telling the US inspectors (truthfully) that he didn't have any weapons of mass destruction. And, on the other hand, he was telling his neighbors (and even units of his own military) that he did.
In retrospect, you can say that all the intel was there to say that he didn't have them. At the time, though, when he was trying to tell his neighbors that he did? That was less cut and dried. And, after 9/11, the bias was toward "over our dead bodies are we letting someone like him have WMDs". So the ambiguity (with whatever probability mix) got resolved to "yes he does".
I mean, after 9/11, would you have accepted a 20% probability that he had WMDs? Even if you would, would the country? Would you expect the president to accept that?