U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#91

Post by dboreham » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:44 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #40

gundmc wrote: post #3

This is why I believe the approach of incremental improvement towards full self driving is fundamentally flawed. These advanced driver assist tools are good enough to lull users into a false sense of security. No amount of "but our terms and conditions say you need to always pay attention!" will overcome human nature building that trust and dependence.

I actually disagree. (And before you respond, please read my post because it’s not a trivial point.) The fact that an huge formal investigation happened with just a single casualty is proof that it may actually be superior for safety in the long-term (when combined with feedback from regulators and government investigators). One death in conventional vehicles is irrelevant. But because of the high profile of Tesla’s…

This line of thinking is flawed because it assumes a smooth surface over the safety space, where if you make incremental improvements you will head towards some maxima of safety. e.g. : the wing fell off; investigate; find that you can't use brittle aluminum; tell aircraft manf. to use a more ductile alloy. Self driving technology isn't like that -- you can't just file a bug "don't mistake a human for a plastic bag", fix that bug and move on to the next one. No number of incremental fixes will make self driving that works as any reasonable human would expect it to work.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#92

Post by throwaway0a5e » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

Seanambers wrote: post #81

3pt14159 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I largely agree with you, but I just wish regulators would start by only allowing these assist programs for people that are already known to be poor drivers. The elderly and convicted drunk drivers, for example. That way we could have the best of both worlds.

Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport

That impressive claim narrows to approximately the noise floor if you compare to comparable drivers in comparable cars.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#93

Post by velcii » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #74

Robotbeat wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually disagree. (And before you respond, please read my post because it’s not a trivial point.) The fact that an huge formal investigation happened with just a single casualty is proof that it may actually be superior for safety in the long-term (when combined with feedback from regulators and government investigators). One death in conventional vehicles is irrelevant. But because of the high profile of Tesla’s…

Then why not flip the scheme. Instead of have the human as backup to the machine, make the machine backup the human. Let the human do all the driving and have the robot jump in whenever the human makes a mistake. Telemetry can then record all the situations where the human and the machine disagreed. That should provide all the necessary data, with the benefit of the robot perhaps preventing many accidents. Of course…

>Let the human do all the driving and have the robot jump in whenever the human makes a mistake.

I really don't think that would give many data points, because all of the instances would be when a human fell asleep or wasn't paying attention.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#94

Post by ben_w » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

Seanambers wrote: post #81

3pt14159 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I largely agree with you, but I just wish regulators would start by only allowing these assist programs for people that are already known to be poor drivers. The elderly and convicted drunk drivers, for example. That way we could have the best of both worlds.

Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport

> In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

I think the comparison should be Tesla with/without AI, not Tesla/not-Tesla; so roughly either x2 or x4 depending on what the other active safety features do.

It’s not nothing, but it’s much less than the current sales pitch — and the current sales pitch is itself the problem here, for many legislators.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#95

Post by wizzwizz4 » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #74

Robotbeat wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually disagree. (And before you respond, please read my post because it’s not a trivial point.) The fact that an huge formal investigation happened with just a single casualty is proof that it may actually be superior for safety in the long-term (when combined with feedback from regulators and government investigators). One death in conventional vehicles is irrelevant. But because of the high profile of Tesla’s…

Then why not flip the scheme. Instead of have the human as backup to the machine, make the machine backup the human. Let the human do all the driving and have the robot jump in whenever the human makes a mistake. Telemetry can then record all the situations where the human and the machine disagreed. That should provide all the necessary data, with the benefit of the robot perhaps preventing many accidents. Of course…

> * Let the human do all the driving and have the robot jump in whenever the human makes a mistake.*

Because when the human disagrees with the machine, the machine is usually the one making a mistake. It might prevent accidents, but it would also cause them, and you lose predictability in the process (you have to model the human and the machine).

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#96

Post by Ajedi32 » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

Seanambers wrote: post #81

3pt14159 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I largely agree with you, but I just wish regulators would start by only allowing these assist programs for people that are already known to be poor drivers. The elderly and convicted drunk drivers, for example. That way we could have the best of both worlds.

Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport

Tesla's vehicles are almost 10X safer than the average vehicle. Whether their autopilot system is contributing positively or negatively to that safety record is unclear.

The real test of this would be: of all Tesla vehicles, are the ones with autopilot enabled statistically safer or less safe than the ones without autopilot enabled?

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#97

Post by input_sh » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

Seanambers wrote: post #81

3pt14159 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I largely agree with you, but I just wish regulators would start by only allowing these assist programs for people that are already known to be poor drivers. The elderly and convicted drunk drivers, for example. That way we could have the best of both worlds.

Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport

...according to Tesla, based on the data nobody else can see?

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#98

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #92

Seanambers wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport

That impressive claim narrows to approximately the noise floor if you compare to comparable drivers in comparable cars.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#99

Post by ghaff » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

fzzzy wrote: post #57

gundmc wrote: post #3

This is why I believe the approach of incremental improvement towards full self driving is fundamentally flawed. These advanced driver assist tools are good enough to lull users into a false sense of security. No amount of "but our terms and conditions say you need to always pay attention!" will overcome human nature building that trust and dependence.

Do you hate regular cruise control? How is that not partial self driving?

To tell you the truth, I generally do and haven't used it for ages. Where I drive, the roads have some amount of traffic. I find (traditional) cruise control encourages driving at a constant speed to a degree that I wouldn't as a driver with a foot on the gas. So I don't "hate" regular cruise control but I basically never use it.

Re: U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes

#100

Post by rcxdude » Mon, Aug 16, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

Waterluvian wrote: post #35

shakna wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I need to be touching the wheel and applying some force to it or it begins yelling at me and eventually brings me slowly to a stop. > I’ve had it for a year now and I cannot perceive of a way, without physically altering the system (like hanging a weight from the wheel maybe?) that would allow me to stop being an active participant. That's exactly what people were doing with the Tesla. Hanging a weight to ensure th…

If people are consciously modifying their car to defeat obvious safety systems, I have a really hard time seeing how the auto manufacturer should be responsible. I guess the probe will reveal what share of fatal accidents are caused by this.

Well, it doesn't help when the CEO of the company publically states that the system is good enough to drive on its own and those safety systems are only there because of regulatory requirements.