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The Case for Optimism

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Re: The Case for Optimism

#41

Post by courtf »

Fricken wrote: post #13

"you must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." -Jim Stockdale, describing the Stockdale paradox. For me to be remotely optimistic, I would need to see more people confronting those brutal facts. They are truly and properly brutal.…

This is how I feel as well. I am a pessimist in the sense that without more progress on certain issues, I think life will get worse for future generations. This isn't ignoring the historical arc of progress, and I would argue that pessimists get an undeserved bad rap for pointing out problems when that is exactly how progress happens. Find problems and try to fix them.

Pessimists aren't just people who assume everything will collapse no matter what is done. I believe humanity is capable of overcoming the challenges set before us, but optimism often seems to be naive, or merely a way of ignoring problems in the short term so that we don't experience unpleasant emotions. If we work on solving problems rather than ignoring them, then I don't care if you are a pessimist or an optimist because we are on the same team regardless of disposition.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#42

Post by lumost »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #23

I used to take Kelly seriously. Back in the 90s he was boosting a glorious connected utopia of free education, explosive creativity and endless opportunity. What we got was personal surveillance by huge monopolies, a toxic culture of disinformation and social media driven by "engagement", and the fathomless banality of an IT economy devoted largely to ad tech. And none of the real problems - climate change, wealth di…

You know, I wonder how much ad tech stifles innovation in alternate models. If ad tech disappeared would we all be paying tiny fees for everything online? Would smaller businesses be more successful?

Re: The Case for Optimism

#43

Post by creamytaco »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #23

I used to take Kelly seriously. Back in the 90s he was boosting a glorious connected utopia of free education, explosive creativity and endless opportunity. What we got was personal surveillance by huge monopolies, a toxic culture of disinformation and social media driven by "engagement", and the fathomless banality of an IT economy devoted largely to ad tech. And none of the real problems - climate change, wealth di…

People like Kelly (and there's loads of them) are so insulated from normality that one can't possibly see them as anything but useful idiots to the techonomic powers that be. Their delusional optimism acts as a constant counterweight to people beginning to ACT in the real world in order to effect change.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#44

Post by cortesoft »

holoduke wrote: post #36
gonehome wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All we got was the entirety of human knowledge in our pockets, functionally for free. I don’t like ad tech and I’m not dismissing that modern software has problems, but I think there’s a lot to be optimistic about. On most metrics (infant mortality, poverty, violence) - things are massively better than they were thirty years ago.

Metrics metrics. The only metric I care about is happiness. I rather die when I am 50 than living in a cage till I am 80.

I really don't think happiness is a good single metric to judge your life by. If pure happiness is all that matters, should you just quit everything and do heroin all day? You would feel really happy.

Life is about many things, and happiness is only one part.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#45

Post by leppr »

dbish wrote: post #12
rightbyte wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimists downplay problems and are annoying to work with, especially if in charge. I rather work with pessimists any day. (As long as we are not talking about like, grumpy vs happy, but more in a technical sense).

Maybe it depends on where in the company they are, but it seems to me that most successful founders are pretty optimistic. I know I wouldn’t want to work for a pessimist, but I agree that I wouldn’t want to be led by a completely unrealistic optimist. There needs to be some awareness of reality, but at the same time the vision and ‘reality distortion’ can help drive big successes and rally teams imho

(Over)optimistim in founders is adapted to the current environment where the competition is over who can raise the biggest mountain of cash. I predict other qualities will become more desirable as the 20 years bull market starts to fade.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#46

Post by joelbluminator »

cortesoft wrote: post #44
holoduke wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Metrics metrics. The only metric I care about is happiness. I rather die when I am 50 than living in a cage till I am 80.

I really don't think happiness is a good single metric to judge your life by. If pure happiness is all that matters, should you just quit everything and do heroin all day? You would feel really happy. Life is about many things, and happiness is only one part.

> should you just quit everything and do heroin all day? You would feel really happy.

No he wouldn't. He would become addicted very fast and eventually live on the streets, Heroin addicts are as miserable as can be. If there was an actual happy pill that worked I don't see why we shouldn't take it, there isn't one.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#47

Post by dbish »

leppr wrote: post #45
dbish wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it depends on where in the company they are, but it seems to me that most successful founders are pretty optimistic. I know I wouldn’t want to work for a pessimist, but I agree that I wouldn’t want to be led by a completely unrealistic optimist. There needs to be some awareness of reality, but at the same time the vision and ‘reality distortion’ can help drive big successes and rally teams imho

(Over)optimistim in founders is adapted to the current environment where the competition is over who can raise the biggest mountain of cash. I predict other qualities will become more desirable as the 20 years bull market starts to fade.

I’d say Bezos, Larry & Sergey, Jobs, even Zuck seemed pretty highly optimistic in their early days and leadership styles, and that has nothing to do with the current funding climate.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#48

Post by mordae »

lumost wrote: post #42
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #23

I used to take Kelly seriously. Back in the 90s he was boosting a glorious connected utopia of free education, explosive creativity and endless opportunity. What we got was personal surveillance by huge monopolies, a toxic culture of disinformation and social media driven by "engagement", and the fathomless banality of an IT economy devoted largely to ad tech. And none of the real problems - climate change, wealth di…

You know, I wonder how much ad tech stifles innovation in alternate models. If ad tech disappeared would we all be paying tiny fees for everything online? Would smaller businesses be more successful?

Yes.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#49

Post by oogabadooga »

courtf wrote: post #41
Fricken wrote: post #13

"you must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." -Jim Stockdale, describing the Stockdale paradox. For me to be remotely optimistic, I would need to see more people confronting those brutal facts. They are truly and properly brutal.…

This is how I feel as well. I am a pessimist in the sense that without more progress on certain issues, I think life will get worse for future generations. This isn't ignoring the historical arc of progress, and I would argue that pessimists get an undeserved bad rap for pointing out problems when that is exactly how progress happens. Find problems and try to fix them. Pessimists aren't just people who assume everyth…

I read that article and some other things on sites as defining optimism as NOT avoiding problems. That one site in particular says the goal is to get more people thinking about the possibilities while specifically acknowledging there are problems. My way of thinking is optimism is about getting a deep understanding of the issues, why they exist, and how humanity has shown time and again we can innovate and come together to solve them. Human progress can accelerate if we come together to do so. It’s good debate, and i like that warp and others like them appears to be presenting that side of things. It’s an interesting paring with Kevin Kelly, hope to support it more.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#50

Post by tuatoru »

courtf wrote: post #41
Fricken wrote: post #13

"you must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." -Jim Stockdale, describing the Stockdale paradox. For me to be remotely optimistic, I would need to see more people confronting those brutal facts. They are truly and properly brutal.…

This is how I feel as well. I am a pessimist in the sense that without more progress on certain issues, I think life will get worse for future generations. This isn't ignoring the historical arc of progress, and I would argue that pessimists get an undeserved bad rap for pointing out problems when that is exactly how progress happens. Find problems and try to fix them. Pessimists aren't just people who assume everyth…

I have no idea why you were downvoted, but I have upvoted.

"If way to the better there be, it exacts a full look at the worst." -- Thomas Hardy.

Unthinking optimism is magical thinking. I blame a steady diet of Disney productions in people's childhoods for this mindset.

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