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The Case for Optimism

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Re: The Case for Optimism

#31

Post by moosey »

dbish wrote: post #4

We do need optimists if we are going to dream and build a great future. Techno-optimism has become almost a taboo, sometimes even within the groups that actually work on cutting edge tech (at least on the computing side of things). We shouldn’t be naive and ignore potential negatives of course, but more optimism and dreaming of a great future we can build towards should be encouraged.

I'm optimistic... That a complete reorganization of our economy and society that leads to happiness and ecological stability is possible.

I am not optimistic that humans can develop the emotional fortitude needed for this reorganization in the time required.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#32

Post by bspammer »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #23

I used to take Kelly seriously. Back in the 90s he was boosting a glorious connected utopia of free education, explosive creativity and endless opportunity. What we got was personal surveillance by huge monopolies, a toxic culture of disinformation and social media driven by "engagement", and the fathomless banality of an IT economy devoted largely to ad tech. And none of the real problems - climate change, wealth di…

> free education

Many top universities release entire courses for free. YouTube is an incredible resource for learning. Khan academy, Wikipedia, sci-hub, library genesis, all free. I can confidently say I’ve learned more from the internet than I have from books and university combined.

> explosive creativity

The internet is nothing if not novel. That’s precisely why it holds our attention so well - it’s an endless source of creativity and new things.

> endless opportunity

Again, surely this has come to pass? My job certainly wouldn’t be possible without the internet. There are tens of not hundreds of millions who make a living purely online.

No doubt it has caused all the negative things in your comment too, but they’re in addition to the positives not instead of them.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#33

Post by goatlover »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #23

I used to take Kelly seriously. Back in the 90s he was boosting a glorious connected utopia of free education, explosive creativity and endless opportunity. What we got was personal surveillance by huge monopolies, a toxic culture of disinformation and social media driven by "engagement", and the fathomless banality of an IT economy devoted largely to ad tech. And none of the real problems - climate change, wealth di…

There's tons of free education, creativity and opportunity on the internet alongside the darker stuff. Being pessimistic means only seeing the problems and not the progress.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#34

Post by mypalmike »

dbish wrote: post #12
rightbyte wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimists downplay problems and are annoying to work with, especially if in charge. I rather work with pessimists any day. (As long as we are not talking about like, grumpy vs happy, but more in a technical sense).

Maybe it depends on where in the company they are, but it seems to me that most successful founders are pretty optimistic. I know I wouldn’t want to work for a pessimist, but I agree that I wouldn’t want to be led by a completely unrealistic optimist. There needs to be some awareness of reality, but at the same time the vision and ‘reality distortion’ can help drive big successes and rally teams imho

Perhaps the reason successful founders are optimists is that most founders are optimists. Unsuccessful founders are generally optimists too.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#35

Post by dbish »

eropple wrote: post #30
dbish wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are too many people who think their questions are the important ones to be addressed before we are allowed to make progress. The more gates/approvers you add before changes can be made or new ideas tried out, the less likely you are to build great things and build fast. Instead you get slow, bureaucratic, design by committee solutions and the more unique technological directions get shelved. One of my favorite…

This reads as "ready, fire, aim, fire again" being a virtue. It's not, at mega-human scales.

So who makes the choices then? Who is the group that validates we are ready to try out a new idea?

Re: The Case for Optimism

#36

Post by holoduke »

gonehome wrote: post #26
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #23

I used to take Kelly seriously. Back in the 90s he was boosting a glorious connected utopia of free education, explosive creativity and endless opportunity. What we got was personal surveillance by huge monopolies, a toxic culture of disinformation and social media driven by "engagement", and the fathomless banality of an IT economy devoted largely to ad tech. And none of the real problems - climate change, wealth di…

All we got was the entirety of human knowledge in our pockets, functionally for free. I don’t like ad tech and I’m not dismissing that modern software has problems, but I think there’s a lot to be optimistic about. On most metrics (infant mortality, poverty, violence) - things are massively better than they were thirty years ago.

Metrics metrics. The only metric I care about is happiness. I rather die when I am 50 than living in a cage till I am 80.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#37

Post by richspuller »

DangitBobby wrote: post #29
pulkitsh1234 wrote: post #20

I am so far down the pessimistic rabbit hole, that for each point he mentioned my mind goes towards what to me seems like the elephant in the room. "Total Urbanization" - What should we do with its impact on the environment ? How will total urbanization be sustainable (i.e. who will buy your waste now ?) ? Should we even think about this, or just try to build technology to leave this planet ? "Universal Connectivity"…

Thank you for writing all of this. I think undying optimism was okay when you really couldn't do that much harm with your terrible decisions based on false optimism. That's no longer the case. I also think, practically speaking, unfounded optimism will be the reason we fail to address Climate Change. It's time for realism now.

Optimism and realism should go hand in hand. Proper optimism is not about dismissing the fact that real problems do exist, and are very serious, but in the realization that we are equipped and able to find solutions and implement them. Climate change for example, there is so much going on in the Green Tech sector, innovations and companies emerging everywhere to take steps toward solving this. Sadly, mainstream media doesn't cover these things. Warp News site that posted this Kevin Kelly article has a lot of great stories on the topic, among many others.

https://www.warpnews.org/green-tech/

Re: The Case for Optimism

#38

Post by JackFr »

Fricken wrote: post #13

"you must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." -Jim Stockdale, describing the Stockdale paradox. For me to be remotely optimistic, I would need to see more people confronting those brutal facts. They are truly and properly brutal.…

With respect to climate change, there is a complete disconnect between the predictions of doom and the proposed solutions. Electric cars ain’t gonna do it. Massive disruption and reordering if the economic order and a real reduction in global well-being are the price to be paid if we’re really serious.

I just don’t see intellectual honesty among people who claim that climate change is an existential threat.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#39

Post by Dudeman112 »

legrande wrote: post #11

> To be a good ancestor one must assume that good things can be forwarded. Many of the old ways are being forgotten, and `Grandma's brain` is not so readily picked anymore since people value their Internet & the hive mind of social media more than the wisdom of their elders. Also the old way of passing down teachings orally, like in the case of Buddhism and some other religions, is declining. Now it has to be perfect…

>`Grandma's brain` is not so readily picked anymore since people value their Internet & the hive mind of social media more than the wisdom of their elders.

Grandma's brain is racist and when I tried to explain to her that what she sees at Facebook and WhatsApp groups might not be true her brain tilted.

Re: The Case for Optimism

#40

Post by Fricken »

JackFr wrote: post #38
Fricken wrote: post #13

"you must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." -Jim Stockdale, describing the Stockdale paradox. For me to be remotely optimistic, I would need to see more people confronting those brutal facts. They are truly and properly brutal.…

With respect to climate change, there is a complete disconnect between the predictions of doom and the proposed solutions. Electric cars ain’t gonna do it. Massive disruption and reordering if the economic order and a real reduction in global well-being are the price to be paid if we’re really serious. I just don’t see intellectual honesty among people who claim that climate change is an existential threat.

There will be a reduction in global well being no matter what.

The lesser of 2 evils is something we can choose. The greater is what we'll get if we don't make a choice.

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