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It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

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Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#521
post #8

Who still believes global warming does not exist? I am currently listening to audiobook of Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six (1998). It has a paragraph on global warming and trying to convince POTUS it is real. And POTUS not wanting to act on it because it would be too large economic drag on US. This book is almost quarter of century old.

Most of the deniers I know have shifted from it doesn't exist to either its not man made and just a natural cycle or it may actually be a good thing because plants like CO2 and warmth...

Another shift if from denial to acknowledging it is real, significantly man-made, and should be addressed--but then rejecting any reduction to emissions on the grounds that it might hurt the economy [1]. All they will support are things like planting trees or offering tax credits for recapture.

Perhaps most ridiculous in rejecting emissions reduction is Senator Rubio who "said it made no sense for the United States to cut its emissions while other countries like China continue to pollute. But at the same time, he also rejected trade policies that would apply pressure on China and others to curb their emissions".

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/climate/republicans-clima...

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#522
post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have never been able to get my head around the religious paradox of God has a plan and free will. I think this can actually be explained in a fairly straightforward way via science: the laws of physics dictate precisely how reality ought to behave, and yet we have thoughts and we make decisions and we believe to be largely free to do whatever we want even though our conscience and our entire being are essentially…

Then why would God punish us for following his laws if they are just the laws of physics? What about randomness and indeterminism? Is there a RNG driving our decisions at some level? If so where does the entropy come from?

Your question seems to be framed from a christian/abrahamic perspective, and is about God's omni-benevolence property. Unfortunately, I've yet to find a sufficiently simple/satisfactory explanation for that question.

In some flavors, the view is that there is no omni-benevolence (think in the tradition of Roman gods, for example), other views include the position that God is not an entity per se and that the notion of conflicts and the pursuit of what is "good" are inherent to our human condition (think Buddhism). If you're inclined to hear abrahamic leaning interpretations, the most closely aligned I've seen is the idea of "God draws straight lines w/ crooked sticks" (i.e. things we perceive as injustices are actually not, but we cannot comprehend the greater good because we are imperfect, biased things). See also karma and beliefs of reincarnation.

As for the origin of entropy, there's a lot of different takes, some rooted in philosophical thought (e.g. Spinoza-like takes that everything is deterministic and RNG is an illusion), some more spiritualistic (e.g. the panentheist idea that the universe is contained in God and that there may or may not be a non-deterministic force underlying it all)

Personally, I don't try to obtain explanations for every claim of every denomination (trying to nitpick apart the exact definition of God as per christianity, for example), since at some level one needs to acknowledge the metaphorical/allegorical aspects of various religious texts. I find it more interesting to take note of what concepts/interpretations appear in multiple denominations, there's a surprising amount of overlap when looking at individual concepts separately from lore.

Aside from all the stuff about deities, there's also quite a bit of literature on the morals side. I find those topics to be have a lot more overlap among religions, with self improvement usually being a central theme.

Anyways, if these kinds of debates interest you, I would recommend looking into pantheism and derivations. A lot of common questions have already been contemplated by various schools of thought. The wikipedia article might be a good place to start.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#523
post #8

Who still believes global warming does not exist? I am currently listening to audiobook of Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six (1998). It has a paragraph on global warming and trying to convince POTUS it is real. And POTUS not wanting to act on it because it would be too large economic drag on US. This book is almost quarter of century old.

I don't personally know any reasonably intelligent people who question the existence of global warming. I do, however, know several highly intelligent people who have looked at the atmospheric carbon and temperature data and wonder (quietly, for obvious reasons) if we might have got the causal mechanism story wrong.

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-d...

> CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has quite a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (12C vs. 13C); thus they have lower 13C/12C ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same 13C/12C ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere decreases.

...

> What is found is at no time in the last 10,000 years are the 13C/12C ratios in the atmosphere as low as they are today. Furthermore, the 13C/12C ratios begin to decline dramatically just as the CO2 starts to increase — around 1850 AD. This is exactly what we expect if the increased CO2 is in fact due to fossil fuel burning.

In other words, all CO2 with biological source (including fossil fuels) comes pre-tagged, and the pattern we see in the atmosphere exactly matches the assumption that they're from fossil fuels.

So, unless your acquaintances theorize that it's the global temperature that drives mankind's demand for fossil fuels, there's really no ground in doubting the causal direction.

It's too bad they're doubting quietly. If they actually voiced their doubts in the form of an honest question, they would have learned about C13 ratio by now.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can we make choices that effect the outcome of things or is it all part of Gods plan? It can't be both right? Given the appropriate doctrine, sure it can. First, in some religions (and some denominations of Christianity) God exists outside of the framework of logical necessity. God being tied to logical necessity himself is a later western theological concern (say, starting with Augustine and co). Not really a tene…

>First, in some religions (and some denominations of Christianity) God exists outside of the framework of logical necessity. This is simply an escape hatch, if it can't be explained, it's because it's magic. Gods follow no logic do what you're told even if it makes no logical sense because there is no logic to be found. There is no room for debate here, you can't use reason, there is nothing further to discuss. >That…

> This is simply an escape hatch

It is an escape hatch, but is it simply an escape hatch? Is a whale simply a mammal?

> if it can't be explained, it's because it's magic.

More or less, as I understand it.

> do what you're told even if it makes no logical sense because there is no logic to be found. There is no room for debate here, you can't use reason, there is nothing further to discuss.

These are your words, not his.

> Even more so the blame goes to God not his creations since he created everything including free will and the choices.

Could be.

> Blaming your creations playing in the sandbox you created with the sand you created is a nonsensical blame game with yourself.

Is God himself doing this, or are you imagining God is doing this? You don't seem to even believe in Him.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#525
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nonsense. Whether someone virtue signals or not, actions are what's important, not words. The CO2 emissions output has been coming down since the high in 2006. With the old boss and the new boss. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide... If anything, fracking helped the environment, since it offset resources being mined by the traditional, more wasteful methods.

> This is nonsense. Deleting this sentence from your comment really improves not only your argument, but the tone of discussion. It just makes things needlessly adversarial to lead with fighting words, and for sure it triggers defensive mental antibodies before you've even started.

Good point!

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#526
post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why would God punish us for following his laws if they are just the laws of physics? What about randomness and indeterminism? Is there a RNG driving our decisions at some level? If so where does the entropy come from?

Your question seems to be framed from a christian/abrahamic perspective, and is about God's omni-benevolence property. Unfortunately, I've yet to find a sufficiently simple/satisfactory explanation for that question. In some flavors, the view is that there is no omni-benevolence (think in the tradition of Roman gods, for example), other views include the position that God is not an entity per se and that the notion o…

I have studied much of it and enjoy Joseph Campbell quite a bit, this discussion was focused on abrahamic religions though.

I find it interesting from a study of human behavior but overall all religions seem to lack rigor, they leave me unsatisfied due to their lack of even internal consistency, unlike mathematics and science.

Questions of determinism or free will are at the root of the mechanics of the universe and how a god might construct it or not. If you believe some god to have created all things then how can there be free will, that would denote something from the outside, some source of entropy not under the control of the creator. If it is under control of the creator the it is not true entropy and everything is determined ultimately by the creator.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to explain this to a relative who started in with the “the earth has always had climate change” jibberish. They tried to tell me no-one knows how the last Ice Age happened. So I explained, but because they didn’t understand any of the concepts involved they thought I was just making it up. It’s a good reminder never to assume malice when plain old stupidity is on the table.

> “the earth has always had climate change” jibberish. This is the worst kind of bullshit, because it starts with something that's technically true. Nobody is ever going to say the Earth's climate hasn't changed. Obviously, we've had ice ages and warmer periods. And, we've had CO2 concentrations much, much higher than today. What we haven't had until is human civilization, and the capability to affect the climate our…

i used this recently as an opportunity to focus on one point: five degrees celsius was the difference between us and the ice age. it’s easy to get lost in debates and forget you can’t change minds easily, especially not in the moment. but easy to understand facts are sticky. a person can shut out everything i say but maybe if they realize the difference of temperatures we are racing towards in the next 50-100 years are the same order as between us and the ice age, maybe it will wear them down over time. i hope.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#528
post #50

The current administration has approved more than 2,000 new fracking permits. I'm so glad the US has rejoined the Paris Agreement. "Meet the new boss Same as the old boss"

> The current administration has approved more than 2,000 new fracking permits.

Most fears about fracking are either myths or overblown.

Fracking has allowed the extraction of more natural gas; and natural has is the main reason that the US was able to reduce its emissions the past decade because it has a higher Joules/CO2 ratio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTA-M12vrT4

> I'm so glad the US has rejoined the Paris Agreement.

Any climate accords not involving the major C02 producers, especially China and India who produces more C02 than all of the rest of the developed world combined, will only outsource the problem to those countries with very poor to non-existent environmental regulations while we sabotage our economies my making them noncompetitive in the mean time.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#529
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50 million years ago, there were forests in the arctic and the earth was much hotter than it is right now. Climate change comes in both man-made and natural varieties, and it's important to acknowledge the difference. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene

And 4.5 billion years ago the Earth was a ball of lava. I guess we can only acknowledge the problem after it gets hotter than at some arbitrary point in the past.

it's absolutely a problem for us. But saying climate change is a natural cycle isn't wrong. We have sped up the process of climate change, so much that it is a problem for us.

Aging is a natural process. Now imagine there was a virus that would make everyone age 100 times as fast. It would then be a huge problem for humanity. That's the best way I have of describing climate change.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#530
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I much prefer "climate crisis." It's just more accurate for where we are.

nobody understands slow motion crises, doesn't compute

The good/bad news is it's starting to not feel so slow.
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