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Life Improvements Since the 1990s

gwern.net

471–480 of 480 posts

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So what level of sacrifice should be required of those that don't make it The same as it has always been for all living things: pain, suffering, and death. > low wage workers both locally and globally who aren't making it Pretty sure quality of life is up by pretty much every measure for "low wage workers" both locally and globally. > none of this is new, but it doesn't have to be this way. > We know how to solve m…

>Pretty sure quality of life is up by pretty much every measure for "low wage workers" both locally and globally. Wages are stagnant and certainly haven't kept pace with productivity. They can buy more TVs because electronics are cheaper, but costs for basics are going up. Metrics don't capture "having to pee in a bottle" because of work demands. >You could have made this statement at any point in history, and people…

> Wages are stagnant and certainly haven't kept pace with productivity

Wages have never been tied to productivity. They're derived from supply and demand for labour. Gold miners are very productive fiscally speaking, but they don't make any more than coal miners.

> Metrics don't capture "having to pee in a bottle" because of work demands.

Why do you think people shouldn't have to pee in bottles? Or be exposed to dangerous conditions? You seem to be operating from a moral ideal that gives a very clear idea of how things ought to be. Where do you derive it from?

> Was it true in 2500 BC that they had the resources to feed everyone on the planet consistently? 1500 AD?

You'd be surprised how much grain was hoarded by ancient Pharaohs and Medieval Lords. It was likely enough to prevent much of the starvation their populations experienced. We could always feed more people than we do, and people with wealth and power have always preferred expensive trinkets and shows of status to feeding the hungry.

The US is fundamentally build on individual liberty. This idea is in opposition to involuntary social obligation. If a person doesn't want to use their wealth/time/energy to the benefit of others, do they have to? Should you force them? To what degree? Are people entitled to be helped or should they have to ask? People disagree axiomatically on these things.

In absence of an oracle to tell us who is right and who is wrong, and given that we are all morally equal, it seems to follow that no one has a strong case to impose their answers to these questions on anyone else. Why are you so sure that helping people is "right"? Why do you think everyone has to work towards your idea of a "healthy society"?

> So why do we structure society to encourage and reward these behaviors instead of trying to mitigate their effects?

I'd say our current social structure is the best we've got for mitigating these effects. Entrepreneurship allows people to harness their self-interest to the benefit of others. Democracy limits the effects of corruption. This is why our society is able to innovate as much as it does, and therefore prevail in the ongoing competition with other societies and other ideas.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not arguing for indefinitely high federal spending, but I would make the case that spending money on infrastructure is a much better use of money compared to pretty much anything else the federal government can do with it. I'm arguing that labour shouldn't be specially exempt from markets fluctuating between tight and loose. I'm also arguing that raising the minimum wage hurts the very poorest of us the most, by…

The problem is that in times without a super high labor market, employers are able to maintain a monopsony on labor and therefore suppress wages. This has caused massively increased inequality and wage stagnation. That’s why the minimum wage is good. But using federal spending to maintain a tight labor market can accomplish the same goal.

> employers are able to maintain a monopsony

This doesn't make sense. Anyone who purchases labour is an employer. "Employers" are not a single entity and therefore cannot maintain a monopsony.

It seems more likely that wages lower or stagnate when the supply of labour exceeds the demand. Minimum wages actually hurt this process by banning the demand for labour below a given, fixed wage.

> massively increased inequality and wage stagnation

Increased as compared to when? Before minimum wages there were all sorts of service and labour positions in the economy that simply don't exist now. It used to be that unskilled labour was available for much lower cost. Think gas stations being able to afford multiple attendants, middle class families being able to afford domestic service. These positions simply aren't tenable at "minimum wage".

Was this a more unequal world? You can certainly make the case for that. Was it objectively worse than the world today, where it is tenable not to participate meaningfully in the economy and still be supported by society? I'm not so sure.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno. I've never worked a FAANG, but wage increases have been great for every new job. Maybe my US perspective is showing? Maybe move to a hotter market?

I'm in the US, but I won't be moving to a hotter market during the pandemic for sure. If your personal wages are "through the roof", good job, as I'm always for general upward pressure on wages. But the original statement was that dev wages were through the roof. Moving to get them is a new, originally unspecified condition that the statistics don't bear out. To revise your original statement, "dev wages can be throu…

Do some interviews. You'll see. The remote market is everywhere. Good luck.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhm yeah you're comparing an 80 year period with two world wars and the development of modern physics and engineering with a 25 year period of stability.

> Uhm yeah you're comparing an 80 year period with two world wars and the development of modern physics and engineering with a 25 year period of stability. Uhm, (1) I measured up to 1960. Since then it's a 61 year period, not a 25 year one. (2) That period having "two world war" versus our "stability" makes my point even more. One would expect a period without 2 world wars bothering it, and with stability to enjoy, t…

> between 1880 and 1960

1960 - 1880 = 80.

> One would expect a period without 2 world wars bothering it, and with stability to enjoy, to produce more.

Only someone ignorant of history. WW2 gave a huge incentive and a ton of resources to develop technology.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#475
The linked/pictured 1980s and 1990s desktops seem much more accessible and usable since items are visible, tangible, and divided by function. Wall space is well-used for communication, reminders, calendar, and artwork.

Following the link, the "clutter free" desktop from 2014 hides all affordances and labels, and dumps everything into a laptop and smartphone screen. The "clutter" is now digital, more complex, and arguably more intrusive in terms of continuous interruptions that follow you around everywhere.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#476

I think he kind of missed the elephant that is modern communication technology has reduced the marginal cost of skilled services enabling pretty much every object designed in an office and manufactured in a factory to benefit from a broader array of engineering and design professionals and methodologies. The average product and service that the average actor in the economy interacts with is designed and optimized to…

"From farming to high finance products and services are substantially more influenced and optimized by specialist professionals than they were in 1990. Increase efficiency like this throughout the national and global economy is how lawnmowers and A/C units can be sold on sale for $100 and still make a profit. " You can find examples of this, but overall, I dispute the generalization. I think quality/price improvement…

I’m assuming you are referring to the US.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uhm yeah you're comparing an 80 year period with two world wars and the development of modern physics and engineering with a 25 year period of stability. Uhm, (1) I measured up to 1960. Since then it's a 61 year period, not a 25 year one. (2) That period having "two world war" versus our "stability" makes my point even more. One would expect a period without 2 world wars bothering it, and with stability to enjoy, t…

> between 1880 and 1960 1960 - 1880 = 80. > One would expect a period without 2 world wars bothering it, and with stability to enjoy, to produce more. Only someone ignorant of history. WW2 gave a huge incentive and a ton of resources to develop technology.

>1960 - 1880 = 80.

Yes, so? You said "you're comparing an 80 year period (...) with a 25 year period of stability".

But I just compared 80 years with 60 years (and those 80 years also had the handicap of two world wars, and much less available resources).

Does it matter? Do you see anything of the scale of 1880-1960's inventions and discoveries appearing in the next 20 years?

Or do you think if we keep it to 60-60, say 1900-1960 and 1960-2020 it changes anything?

>Only someone ignorant of history. WW2 gave a huge incentive and a ton of resources to develop technology.

Only someone ignorant of history would also not know that WW1 and WW2 killed thousands of the brightest minds and millions of young people at their prime, disturbed research in tons of areas, diminished resources in affected countries (all of Europe for one for almost 2 decades), and caused the loss of trillions of resources, having a devastating effect which makes weapons and military systems research pale in comparison.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#478
post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Environmental Kuznets Curve is problematic though, see for instance: https://www.jasonhickel.org/blog/2020/10/9/response-to-mcafe...

Massive amounts of resource extraction still occurs in places like the US, Canada, and Australia. The US is the world's largest oil producer now. Canada and the US have huge logging operations, and are huge agricultural exporters. Australia has enormous mining operations. And indeed all three still use and extract coal, and most people rely on internal combustion engines for transportation. Despite all of this, air q…

Yes, and as pointed out in the link I shared, air pollution is part of the limited impacts it is applicable to, but points out "it does not apply to impacts like resource use and energy use".

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the US, but I won't be moving to a hotter market during the pandemic for sure. If your personal wages are "through the roof", good job, as I'm always for general upward pressure on wages. But the original statement was that dev wages were through the roof. Moving to get them is a new, originally unspecified condition that the statistics don't bear out. To revise your original statement, "dev wages can be throu…

Do some interviews. You'll see. The remote market is everywhere. Good luck.

You may be right about that. I don't interview often. I despise switching jobs because of the gamut of exams and tests they put you through. I've had 2-3 hour exams before. Sometimes coding, sometimes pure psych exams. It completely pushes me away from seeking new jobs. Thanks for mentioning it because sometimes people, including myself, lose the script.

Re: Life Improvements Since the 1990s

#480
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one wants to sit in a train for 10 hours on what would have been a two hour flight

What if they can't afford a flight?

Most amtrak fares are comparable to airfare these days honestly. If you can't afford airfare you end up on a greyhound, not the amtrak.
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