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How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

nature.com

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Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#61

Post by Semaphor »

Tepix wrote: post #47
drno123 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for the clear explanation. Here in Europe we have Covid passports - if you are vaccinated or tested negative, you are allowed admission to, for example, shopping malls and no need to wear a mask indoors. Does this mean that Covid passports actually help spread Covid from vaccinated to non-vaccinated people who mix together without masks?

Luckily in Germany masks are still mandatory indoors. Also Istael has reinstated the indoor mask requirement after the number of infections increased dramatically even with many vaccinated people

And just to complete this, in Germany surgical or FFP2/(K)N95 masks are mandatory indoors, face shields or cloth masks are not acceptable.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#62

Post by veemjeem »

oxymoran wrote: post #26
mint2 wrote: post #18

This title is editorialized to be misleading. It’s specifically the nose not in general. It does not mean the viral load in the lungs is the same. And studies indicate vaccinated ppl may stay infectious a shorter timespan.

Why is nobody recommending a highly saline nasal irrigation as a prophylactic? Or even a lower saline nasal irrigation with a very diluted amount of hydrogen peroxide???

There's an in-vitro study that shows efficacy with common nasal spray ingredients (carrageenan & xylitol): https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.19.225854v1....

Also, the I-MASK+ early outpatient protocol mentions using a nasal & oral rinse: https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/F...

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#63

Post by meheleventyone »

leereeves wrote: post #60
meheleventyone wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know the UK is: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Iceland has been as well you can see the breakdown on where infections came from here: https://www.covid.is/data

Very interesting, thank you for those links. According to the second link, 255k people have been vaccinated in Iceland, out of a population of 364k (according to Wikipedia). So about 70% of the population has been vaccinated. And according to the chart "Number of vaccinated individuals among domestic infections", about 60% of infections are among fully vaccinated people. That suggests vaccination may not reduce the c…

It’s actually much higher amongst adults (>16) the remaining 30% is almost all children under 16. You need to take that into account when trying to interpret the statistics otherwise you fall into your current trap. It’s still mostly adults getting infected.

I quoted the Chief Epidemiologist’s most recent statement on the facts of the matter in Iceland in the comment you initially replied to but will do so again:

> “Diagnosis of infection is three-times more likely in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated, the likelihood of hospital admission is some four-times higher, and the frequency of intensive care is five times more common in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated. So, we are seeing that vaccination is protecting against infection and especially against serious illness, which should be a spur to everyone to get vaccinated who has not been vaccinated so far,” Þórólfur said.”

Literally out of the mouth of the people gathering and using these statistics.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#64

Post by leereeves »

meheleventyone wrote: post #63
leereeves wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very interesting, thank you for those links. According to the second link, 255k people have been vaccinated in Iceland, out of a population of 364k (according to Wikipedia). So about 70% of the population has been vaccinated. And according to the chart "Number of vaccinated individuals among domestic infections", about 60% of infections are among fully vaccinated people. That suggests vaccination may not reduce the c…

It’s actually much higher amongst adults (>16) the remaining 30% is almost all children under 16. You need to take that into account when trying to interpret the statistics otherwise you fall into your current trap. It’s still mostly adults getting infected. I quoted the Chief Epidemiologist’s most recent statement on the facts of the matter in Iceland in the comment you initially replied to but will do so again: > “…

I don't understand what you mean by "fall into your current trap". If I understand correctly, nearly the entire adult population of Iceland has been vaccinated, and yet since July Iceland is experiencing the most COVID cases it ever has. What am I missing?

That fact alone doesn't bode well for the hope of vaccination reducing the number of COVID infections.

Regarding the comparison between vaccination rates and infection rates: if the rates of infection are equal among children and adults, and vaccination doesn't affect the chance of infection, we'd expect about 30% of the cases to be among unvaccinated children, which isn't far from the current number. Unfortunately that page doesn't break down current infections by age, but that should be considered.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#65

Post by meheleventyone »

leereeves wrote: post #64
meheleventyone wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s actually much higher amongst adults (>16) the remaining 30% is almost all children under 16. You need to take that into account when trying to interpret the statistics otherwise you fall into your current trap. It’s still mostly adults getting infected. I quoted the Chief Epidemiologist’s most recent statement on the facts of the matter in Iceland in the comment you initially replied to but will do so again: > “…

I don't understand what you mean by "fall into your current trap". If I understand correctly, nearly the entire adult population of Iceland has been vaccinated, and yet since July Iceland is experiencing the most COVID cases it ever has. What am I missing? That fact alone doesn't bode well for the hope of vaccination reducing the number of COVID infections. Regarding the comparison between vaccination rates and infec…

We have far more lenient controls right now. Far more people are getting infected (by a more infectious variant) but our hospitals are not (yet) being overwhelmed. Having the vast majority of the adult population vaccinated allows for this because as well as reducing the rate of infection it also reduces the rate of hospitalisation and the rate of of serious hospitalisation. One of the news articles linked above is about how that might change as things progress. Which is where I pulled this quote from the Chief Epidemiologist here:

> “Diagnosis of infection is three-times more likely in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated, the likelihood of hospital admission is some four-times higher, and the frequency of intensive care is five times more common in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated. So, we are seeing that vaccination is protecting against infection and especially against serious illness, which should be a spur to everyone to get vaccinated who has not been vaccinated so far,” Þórólfur said.

If you read further down in the statistics data there is a breakdown by population age. You need to take into account the COVID is less infectious for the young. Iceland is also going to expand vaccination for the 12-16 age group and give people who got the less effective vaccine a booster. Not coincidentally the population with the largest set of infections mixes the most and got the Jannsen vaccine, those 20-30.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#66

Post by leereeves »

meheleventyone wrote: post #65
leereeves wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what you mean by "fall into your current trap". If I understand correctly, nearly the entire adult population of Iceland has been vaccinated, and yet since July Iceland is experiencing the most COVID cases it ever has. What am I missing? That fact alone doesn't bode well for the hope of vaccination reducing the number of COVID infections. Regarding the comparison between vaccination rates and infec…

We have far more lenient controls right now. Far more people are getting infected (by a more infectious variant) but our hospitals are not (yet) being overwhelmed. Having the vast majority of the adult population vaccinated allows for this because as well as reducing the rate of infection it also reduces the rate of hospitalisation and the rate of of serious hospitalisation. One of the news articles linked above is a…

> Far more people are getting infected but our hospitals are not (yet) being overwhelmed.

That makes sense. I think it's clear that vaccination makes the infection less severe and reduces hospitalization rates. But there's also a hope, which is the basis for a lot of policy decisions, that vaccination will reduce the chance of being infected, perhaps even eliminate the illness, and Iceland's data doesn't support that.

> If you read further down in the statistics data there is a breakdown by population age.

Only for isolation and for cumulative cases, not for current cases.

> You need to take into account the COVID is less infectious for the young.

Source please. I haven't heard that before; though it is less severe for the young.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#67

Post by meheleventyone »

leereeves wrote: post #66
meheleventyone wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have far more lenient controls right now. Far more people are getting infected (by a more infectious variant) but our hospitals are not (yet) being overwhelmed. Having the vast majority of the adult population vaccinated allows for this because as well as reducing the rate of infection it also reduces the rate of hospitalisation and the rate of of serious hospitalisation. One of the news articles linked above is a…

> Far more people are getting infected but our hospitals are not (yet) being overwhelmed. That makes sense. I think it's clear that vaccination makes the infection less severe and reduces hospitalization rates. But there's also a hope, which is the basis for a lot of policy decisions, that vaccination will reduce the chance of being infected, perhaps even eliminate the illness, and Iceland's data doesn't support that…

> Iceland's data doesn't support that.

You do you but that isn’t actually correct.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#68

Post by MagnumOpus »

refurb wrote: post #31
mattkrause wrote: post #7

In vaccinated people who become infected . Since the vaccines cause fewer people to be infected, the unconditional viral load is lower.

Looking at countries with high vaccination rates but still dealing with uncontrolled outbreaks, the breakdown of the infected pretty closely mirrors the percentage vaccinated in the overall population. If the vaccine provided you with strong protection against infection, you'd expect the numbers to be highly skewed towards the unvaccinated.

First that is not true - in the UK for instance, hospital admissions are around 50:50 last I've seen, with 89% of adults vaccinated (pointing to 80%+ vaccine efficacy).

Second, even if it were true, the proportion of vaccinated people among the highly susceptible older population is far higher. These older people have higher chance and severity of breakthrough infection, so comparing raw number will get you misleading results.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#69

Post by skocznymroczny »

Tepix wrote: post #47
drno123 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for the clear explanation. Here in Europe we have Covid passports - if you are vaccinated or tested negative, you are allowed admission to, for example, shopping malls and no need to wear a mask indoors. Does this mean that Covid passports actually help spread Covid from vaccinated to non-vaccinated people who mix together without masks?

Luckily in Germany masks are still mandatory indoors. Also Istael has reinstated the indoor mask requirement after the number of infections increased dramatically even with many vaccinated people

Why luckily? There's limited proof of any efficiency of masks.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#70

Post by refurb »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #68
refurb wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at countries with high vaccination rates but still dealing with uncontrolled outbreaks, the breakdown of the infected pretty closely mirrors the percentage vaccinated in the overall population. If the vaccine provided you with strong protection against infection, you'd expect the numbers to be highly skewed towards the unvaccinated.

First that is not true - in the UK for instance, hospital admissions are around 50:50 last I've seen, with 89% of adults vaccinated (pointing to 80%+ vaccine efficacy). Second, even if it were true, the proportion of vaccinated people among the highly susceptible older population is far higher. These older people have higher chance and severity of breakthrough infection, so comparing raw number will get you misleadin…

I'm not talking about hospital admission, which yes, are way lower in the vaccinated.

I'm talking about those with confirmed Covid infections. It looks like the vaccination does lower the risk of infection, but it's relatively marginal. But yes, it strongly protects against serious disease.

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