Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont) • Hacker News Board

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#101

Post by nate_meurer » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 1:47 AM UTC

systemvoltage wrote: post #93

nate_meurer wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your argument consists of "it's too complicated for anyone to understand why I'm right", that might explain some of the responses you get.

It wasn't and you're mischaracterizing. You haven't seen my comments from last year. Without repeating the arguments, the Economist wrote an article about why measuring inflation is complex and you can't just look at CPI: https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/09/05/... Point is that HN was so gung-ho about covid stimulus package, that any comment that pointed out inflation issues that we're going to h…

> now here we are.

And we're right back to the secret inflation theory that your parent referenced. The main point of contention regarding the current numbers is that it's too early to know where we are, that is, to know whether the inflation we've seen this year is transient.

There was a steady stream of inflation scaremongering throughout the Obama years which never made economic sense, and of course never came to fruition. I heard the same arguments about it then: "inflation is here, it's just complex and the government is hiding it".

Of course you could be right this time, but it also shouldn't surprise you that an attempt to support this prediction by rehashing the old secret inflation theory attracts a few eye-rolls.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#102

Post by sgtnoodle » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 1:54 AM UTC

tomc1985 wrote: post #28

gruez wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anyone who didn't get a 20% raise this year lost money. but inflation (as measured by CPI) isn't anywhere close to 20%?

I have tons of anecdata suggesting worse… I just filled up a propane tank, 3lbs of fuel was almost $10 whereas a year ago it was $5-$6 The price of a California burrito most places here is almost $10, they were closer to $7/$8 before pandemic started spiking beef prices It’s getting harder and harder to keep the bill at Costco under $100 Uber/Lyft rides that used to be $10 cost $15-$20 during non-surge hours And so o…

I like to anecdotally track burrito prices.

When I worked in Hawthorne in 2010, there was a $4 burrito option. When I left in 2013, it was a $5.50 burrito.

In the bay area, it seems like burritos with guacamole have been $9-11 for several years now.

Restaurant breakfast burritos have seemingly gone up from $8 to about $12 in the last two years.

Grocery store deli counter breakfast burritos have gone up from about $3.50 to about $4.50.

Microwave burritos have gone up from $not-worth-it to $not-worth-it + 2 over the last couple years.

The diner down the street from me makes the best breakfast burrito for about $9, enough to feed two people. It's pretty amazing, considering it would probably cost me $6 to recreate from the grocery store. My favorite coffee shop in 2019 had a $12 burrito that was a bit overpriced but worth it; they shut down months before the pandemic ramped up, though. I suspect it was partially because of the burrito price. Their food was expensive enough that my wife and I would always share an entree regardless of how hungry we were. We live in a touristy area, and there are local restaurants we won't even consider going to because it's so overpriced.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#103

Post by josephcsible » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 1:58 AM UTC

mindslight wrote: post #20

Grakel wrote: post #3

Anyone who didn't get a 20% raise this year lost money. As the fed pumped cash, the stock market gains kept the rich from feeling the inflation that is being handed to everybody else with a bow on it. For months everyone has naysayed the idea that money printing would have a negative effect, now just Google "inflation" news articles.

The problem is that worries about inflation are only ever trotted out when relief for individuals is being considered. Money printing to juice the markets happens without concern or debate. The bailout that caused all the current asset inflation happened reflexively after a single day drop in the stock market at the start of Covid. Executives had looted companies by loading them up with debt that relied on optimistic…

> Executives had looted companies by loading them up with debt that relied on optimistic cashflow, gave themselves bonuses for that "optimization", and then got bailed out when the cashflow slowed. These companies should have been restructured in bankruptcy, with the executives going to jail for violation of fiduciary duty.

By "optimistic cashflow", do you mean the assumption that the government wouldn't suddenly ban most companies from doing anything that would earn them any money for months on end? Because until they did, that seemed like a totally reasonable assumption.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#104

Post by s5300 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:19 AM UTC

ryan_lane wrote: post #98

s5300 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Cali Burrito increase has been insane.

I don't know where you've been buying them, but $10 is the normal price from the places I'd buy them and has been for ages.

San Diego man, only place it can truly be called a Cali Burrito. That shit in LA is gross.

Most places have gone up about $3 since start of the pandemic.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#105

Post by tomc1985 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:24 AM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #68

azinman2 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that not only do they not have VC cash mania going on, they're also really hit by Covid. The only way they'd start lowering prices is if demand spikes, things normalized out, and Uber/Lyft wage war on each other as capitalism is supposed to work (but in reality they'll just pick turfs).

They're also still losing money. I'd be surprised to ever see cheap prices again from them.

Ironically I have been riding with the local Yellow Cab again, the fixed prices they quote on their app consistently undercut Uber/Lyft and the drivers actually show up in a reasonable amount of time

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#106

Post by throw0101a » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:27 AM UTC

tomc1985 wrote: post #38

gruez wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have tons of anecdata suggesting worse… And that's flawed due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic [thing] increases in price: "omg inflation!" [thing stays the same]: "meh" result? "omg inflation!"

But… that is inflation. Prices are going up. Such is the anecdata? Is this effect global? Who knows, it’s anecdata

> But… that is inflation. Prices are going up. Such is the anecdata?

But what proportion do [thing] and [thing stays the same] make up of your budget? That's why the CPI uses a basket of goods, each in proportion to what the average person uses in their lives to find the average inflation.

And some [thing]s may be more noticeable than others: yes, gas may have gone up, but your care insurance perhaps hasn't, and so perhaps hasn't parts and maintenance. But you fill up more often so you notice those prices more and suffer recency bias.

In Canada, StatCan actually has a "Consumer Price Index Personal Inflation Calculator" so that you can find the quantitate number to your personal experience of inflation give your personal basket of goods, versus the average one:

* https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020015...

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#107

Post by tharkun__ » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:28 AM UTC

jxramos wrote: post #90

tomc1985 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But… that is inflation. Prices are going up. Such is the anecdata? Is this effect global? Who knows, it’s anecdata

I've been feeling the price rises too, I second the Costco thing entirely too. I have a ton of receipt data I can analyze. I've been curious to track my personal expenses for things like milk, take out burgers, and other stuff I regularly purchase and have lots of data points on over time. I think the anecdata speaks, very loudly for the individual visibly paying more.

I would like to know more. My first suspicion is that most people don't track this data closely enough. Unfortunately after tracking this data for about 15 years, I stopped in 2018 (too cumbersome). I was able to tell you exactly how much money we spent on alcohol vs. dairy vs. veggies etc.

If only I had continued, I could've provided great anecdata here, because we never really "go out". And herein lies the crux. Many if not most other people I know go out regularly. Rain or shine, recently got kids or not etc. So the pandemic hitting would drive up their Costco bills even if prices stayed flat.

Happy to learn that the anecdata presented in this thread is from people like me. But otherwise my "felt" Costco bill has stayed almost the same (minus "normal" inflation).

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#108

Post by tomc1985 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:35 AM UTC

s5300 wrote: post #104

ryan_lane wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you've been buying them, but $10 is the normal price from the places I'd buy them and has been for ages.

San Diego man, only place it can truly be called a Cali Burrito. That shit in LA is gross. Most places have gone up about $3 since start of the pandemic.

Not sure why you're being downvoted but yes I am speaking about SD.

As for the LA cali burrito heads: don't step dudes. Y'all got plenty of great food that kicks our asses. But we have the best calimex, hands down. "Don't ever argue with a San Diegan about Mexican food"

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#109

Post by kamaal » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:35 AM UTC

finexplained wrote: post #11

Grakel wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20% of dollars in circulation were printed in 2020 and the inflation is filtering down. Also inflation statistics are intentionally blurred. Look at housing prices or other individual metrics.

Inflation isn't directly (that is one-to-one) tied to the amount of money printed. That's a simplistic view of a complicated phenomena. What matters is demand aggregated among many individuals. You can print any sum of money and if the person you give it to decides not to spend it, it doesn't affect demand and thus doesn't cause inflation. Meanwhile you can stop printing money, and if demand increases inflation can s…

>>You can print any sum of money and if the person you give it to decides not to spend it, it doesn't affect demand and thus doesn't cause inflation.

In short this is the equivalent of not printing money.

The very reason why you print money is to spend it. If you didn't want to spend money. Why print it?

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#110

Post by throw0101a » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 2:39 AM UTC

tomc1985 wrote: post #28

gruez wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anyone who didn't get a 20% raise this year lost money. but inflation (as measured by CPI) isn't anywhere close to 20%?

I have tons of anecdata suggesting worse… I just filled up a propane tank, 3lbs of fuel was almost $10 whereas a year ago it was $5-$6 The price of a California burrito most places here is almost $10, they were closer to $7/$8 before pandemic started spiking beef prices It’s getting harder and harder to keep the bill at Costco under $100 Uber/Lyft rides that used to be $10 cost $15-$20 during non-surge hours And so o…

> I just filled up a propane tank, 3lbs of fuel was almost $10 whereas a year ago it was $5-$6

Great. And what was it 2 years ago? 3 years ago? In fact propane is still cheaper now than it was in 2018:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU05320104

So yes, perhaps propane has gone up since last year. But last year it was the cheapest it's been since 1999. So of course the YoY change is going to go up.

Further, in regards to CPI, what percentage of propane purchases make up of your expenses, either on a monthly or annual basis? In the US, "Propane, kerosene, firewood" make up .076% of the CPI:

* https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/household-fuels.htm

In general, household energy makes up 3.605%, with electricity being 2.628%. So while you may feel like it's a big deal, how much of your budget is it really impacting?

What were your expenses in all the various categories of spending last year, and what are they this year? Cherry picking one data point that you just happen to notice does not necessarily mean your expenses are much different in total.

In Canada, StatCan has a personal inflation calculator where you can enter your own expenses for a personal basket of goods:

* https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020015...

I think if the BLS had a similar tool a lot of the "I think/feel inflation is more than x%" comments would be reduced, as people wouldn't be trying to extrapolate the average CPI to themselves.