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Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

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Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#91

Post by Retric »

lend000 wrote: post #86
Retric wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about 1980 to 1986 where inflation tanked 90% and M2 started at 8% peaked at over 12% then fell back to 8%. The charts for those years have nothing in common. I get it, M2 really seems like it should correspond with inflation but at minimum you need to adjust for economic growth. As we produce and consume more we need more money handle those transactions.

Recommend you take a look at this to see more factors involved in inflation, in a more quantitative light: https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/ . The reason CPI is a terrible metric is because measuring inflation is very difficult and somewhat arbitrary (see for example: hedonic adjustments). M2 is a significant, consistent, and logical factor. Even from 1980-1986, rapid changes in M2 consistently correspond to a chan…

Look I am aware of a host of factors that in theory influence inflation and the multiple different ways it’s measured. I am also perfectly willing to acknowledge there is a connection between M2 and inflation. But, when historical correlations are this weak you can’t suggest A predicts B when it simply hasn’t.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#92

Post by gizmo385 »

RhysU wrote: post #58
finexplained wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation isn't directly (that is one-to-one) tied to the amount of money printed. That's a simplistic view of a complicated phenomena. What matters is demand aggregated among many individuals. You can print any sum of money and if the person you give it to decides not to spend it, it doesn't affect demand and thus doesn't cause inflation. Meanwhile you can stop printing money, and if demand increases inflation can s…

But what if we handed the printed dollars to a large number of individuals to spend immediately to cover their income shortfalls in unprecedented government largess?

Then those people largely spend it on essentials, don't lose their housing, and don't starve to death.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#93

Post by systemvoltage »

nate_meurer wrote: post #88
systemvoltage wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation is a complex metric. I don't there is a meaningful way to summarize it.

If your argument consists of "it's too complicated for anyone to understand why I'm right", that might explain some of the responses you get.

It wasn't and you're mischaracterizing. You haven't seen my comments from last year. Without repeating the arguments, the Economist wrote an article about why measuring inflation is complex and you can't just look at CPI: https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/09/05/...

Point is that HN was so gung-ho about covid stimulus package, that any comment that pointed out inflation issues that we're going to have in the future were ridiculed. And, now here we are.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#94

Post by notJim »

gruez wrote: post #64
tomc1985 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the gp comments as questioning the relevance of the CPI. From my experience it understates the very real price increases I am seeing where I am

>From my experience it understates the very real price increases I am seeing where I am the "very real price increases" you're seeing is clouded by the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic . The CPI uses a fixed basket to weigh the different price increases. Meanwhile in your head, your brain weighs price increases based on the shock factor. That lyft ride that got 2x more expensive? That's going to h…

Also good old fashioned confirmation bias. If someone thinks inflation must be through the roof and the government is lying about it, then they're going to notice things that get more expensive, while ignoring things that get cheaper or stay the same.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#95

Post by pcbro141 »

rubyfan wrote: post #65
pcbro141 wrote: post #62

And the number of singles is projected to continue to increase. We need to go back to committed relationships again, life is so much easier with 2 incomes.

or we could pay people more so they earn a living wage

How is that mutually exclusive of having more functional stable 2 parent homes? We can do both.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#96

Post by pcbro141 »

lewisinc wrote: post #63
pcbro141 wrote: post #62

And the number of singles is projected to continue to increase. We need to go back to committed relationships again, life is so much easier with 2 incomes.

Why stop at 2?

Multi generational living is also great, and not mutually exclusive of having more stable long term relationships. It's fine to live at home as a couple to save money if your parents are okay with it.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#97

Post by nate_meurer »

abeppu wrote: post #73
massysett wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Park County Colorado is in ski country. Low-paying jobs and rich people bidding up what little housing there is.

Ah, I was wondering b/c it's adjacent to Lake County which has both higher median renter wages and substantially cheaper rent.

To add a little to the grandparent, Park County's figures are skewed to the extreme by the Breckenridge/Frisco/Dillon metropolis, which isn't actually in Park County, but rather on its border in neighboring Summit Co.

Breckenridge, Frisco, Dillon, Silverthorne, Keystone, and to some extent Copper Mountain are radiating an insatiable demand for affordable housing. Building is slow due to the mountainous terrain and lots of NIMBYs.

Park county, in contrast, is still a working man's county. The Placer Valley, which lies over Hoosier Pass to the South of Breckenridge, is full of active mines from top to bottom, and South of that lies the vast mountain meadow called South Park. The valley and park can hold Summit's bedroom communities, and they inevitably will. It's just going to take a while to build them up.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#98

Post by ryan_lane »

s5300 wrote: post #34
tomc1985 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have tons of anecdata suggesting worse… I just filled up a propane tank, 3lbs of fuel was almost $10 whereas a year ago it was $5-$6 The price of a California burrito most places here is almost $10, they were closer to $7/$8 before pandemic started spiking beef prices It’s getting harder and harder to keep the bill at Costco under $100 Uber/Lyft rides that used to be $10 cost $15-$20 during non-surge hours And so o…

The Cali Burrito increase has been insane.

I don't know where you've been buying them, but $10 is the normal price from the places I'd buy them and has been for ages.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#99

Post by willcipriano »

notJim wrote: post #89
RhysU wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what if we handed the printed dollars to a large number of individuals to spend immediately to cover their income shortfalls in unprecedented government largess?

If it's covering an income shortfall, it doesn't seem like that would cause inflation. If I normally spend $2k a month, but then lose my job and get $2k from the government, that's not going to cause inflation. From what I understand, much of the stimulus money was saved. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

> If I normally spend $2k a month, but then lose my job and get $2k from the government, that's not going to cause inflation.

That $2k a month that you used to earn is still out there somewhere unaccounted for.

Re: Nearly half of American workers don’t earn enough to afford a one-bedroom (cont)

#100

Post by nradov »

tomc1985 wrote: post #28
gruez wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anyone who didn't get a 20% raise this year lost money. but inflation (as measured by CPI) isn't anywhere close to 20%?

I have tons of anecdata suggesting worse… I just filled up a propane tank, 3lbs of fuel was almost $10 whereas a year ago it was $5-$6 The price of a California burrito most places here is almost $10, they were closer to $7/$8 before pandemic started spiking beef prices It’s getting harder and harder to keep the bill at Costco under $100 Uber/Lyft rides that used to be $10 cost $15-$20 during non-surge hours And so o…

The CPI includes propane and food. Uber / Lyft prices used to be artificially cheap due to VC subsidies but most regular people barely use those services anyway.
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