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What China Wants and Why

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Re: What China Wants and Why

#11

Post by georgeecollins »

kasperni wrote: post #5

Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof of the world?

Don't think about it as an invasion, think about it as a front.

There have been historical times when the US-- essentially strategically secure-- has had a front to fight with Canada (1812) or Mexico (1849). Most recently, the civil war in Mexico (1917) had a large number of US troops fighting along the border right before the start of the US entry in the First World War.

(the Germans realized this was the strategic weakness of the US, which prompted the Zimmerman telegram.)

In a similar way China can be dragged down by wars in Vietnam, Burma, Korea, or India / Himalayas. Will it lose? No. But like the US and Mexico, a war at your border can make projection of power infeasible.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#12

Post by tuatoru »

nichtich wrote: post #2

This is a way over simplistic view. It's not a CIV game where someone decides what "China/Han" should do for all these thousands of years. People's minds change, sometimes the people themselves change, accidents happen. You don't have to find some hidden "truth" that goes back 3000 years to explain what China today does.

This same over simplistic view is used to explain why Russia expanded so aggressively to the west and east, and holds its client states so tightly.

There is a nice grassy plain from Poland all the way through to the Caucasus (with the Urals as a somewhat permeable barrier). Armies on the move love grassy plains.

If your objective is to protect Moscow, you need to control that grassy plain.

Edit: ref: Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall.

"Geography is destiny" can be a useful lens through which to view global politics.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#13

Post by kasperni »

georgeecollins wrote: post #11
kasperni wrote: post #5

Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof of the world?

Don't think about it as an invasion, think about it as a front. There have been historical times when the US-- essentially strategically secure-- has had a front to fight with Canada (1812) or Mexico (1849). Most recently, the civil war in Mexico (1917) had a large number of US troops fighting along the border right before the start of the US entry in the First World War. (the Germans realized this was the strategic…

What I was trying to say was that the author completely misses the point about crackdowns in Tibet and Xinjiang. This has nothing to do with external threats to the Han population. And everything to do with internal threats to the integrity of the empire instead. Runaway provinces must be kept in order. That's how it has been for centuries.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#14

Post by denton-scratch »

tuatoru wrote: post #12
nichtich wrote: post #2

This is a way over simplistic view. It's not a CIV game where someone decides what "China/Han" should do for all these thousands of years. People's minds change, sometimes the people themselves change, accidents happen. You don't have to find some hidden "truth" that goes back 3000 years to explain what China today does.

This same over simplistic view is used to explain why Russia expanded so aggressively to the west and east, and holds its client states so tightly. There is a nice grassy plain from Poland all the way through to the Caucasus (with the Urals as a somewhat permeable barrier). Armies on the move love grassy plains. If your objective is to protect Moscow, you need to control that grassy plain. Edit: ref: Prisoners of Geo…

> There is a nice grassy plain from Poland all the way through to the Caucasus

That would be the Pripyat Marshes? That is notoriously inhospitable terrain for armies.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#15

Post by rich_sasha »

kasperni wrote: post #5

Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof of the world?

These matter, I think. WWI started in large part because European empire nations all had a game of chess in mind, about who could gain what (and who could lose o it FOMO style) if there’s a conflict without them in it. Never mind they castrated themselves in the process and set up for another disaster 20 years on.

In any bureaucracy there’s a kernel that focuses on O(50y) strategies and I find it likely this is how they see the world. Whether that’s genius or self-propelling war mongering, I’m not sure.

The thing is, if India were to start threatening China in 20 years time, the time to prepare for it is now. Responding to threats is best done before they appear. You cannot magic out firefighters and their infrastructure as a fire starts.

And if anyone is long-term-focused, surely that’s China.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#16

Post by babesh »

kasperni wrote: post #13
georgeecollins wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't think about it as an invasion, think about it as a front. There have been historical times when the US-- essentially strategically secure-- has had a front to fight with Canada (1812) or Mexico (1849). Most recently, the civil war in Mexico (1917) had a large number of US troops fighting along the border right before the start of the US entry in the First World War. (the Germans realized this was the strategic…

What I was trying to say was that the author completely misses the point about crackdowns in Tibet and Xinjiang. This has nothing to do with external threats to the Han population. And everything to do with internal threats to the integrity of the empire instead. Runaway provinces must be kept in order. That's how it has been for centuries.

I am not expert but I read that there were Ughyur uprisings. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_conflict

Also, I read that the US/China competition includes a US containment strategy. https://cejiss.org/the-united-states-china-containment-strat...

Re: What China Wants and Why

#18

Post by davidjytang »

> China is surrounded by foes on its coast. This is why it works so hard to expand its territorial waters.

I would argue the exact opposite. China works so hard to expand its territorial waters. This is why China is surrounded by foes on its coast.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#19

Post by bxbb »

yangminded wrote: post #3

Can't take this serious. The "Hu Line" is massively inconsistent in the various maps used here! In the topographical one, Sichuan is west of the Hu-Line, while in others it is east of it. Make up your mind. Don't fuddle with the line just to tell a story.

Hu Huanyong, the man behind the concept, never defined the boundary as a straight line. Rather, a chain of city network of which Chinese culture divided east-west demographically due to availability of fertile plain that support population growth.

In your mentioned region, Sichuan, lies Chengdu plain which border the mountain range. Making the demographic line also meander along from Beichuang to Songpan to Chengdu. There's another meander along Hanzong further north, and Yunnan in the south.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#20

Post by rich_sasha »

davidjytang wrote: post #18

> China is surrounded by foes on its coast. This is why it works so hard to expand its territorial waters. I would argue the exact opposite. China works so hard to expand its territorial waters. This is why China is surrounded by foes on its coast.

That’s true too. As you expand your buffer, somewhere else becomes the frontier that needs a buffer of its own.
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